NFL/SFL Madden 19 QB Eval Day 1

by LBzrule57 | 7 years ago | 1 Comments

 

 

 

LBzrule’s 2018 NFL Draft QB Evals

Day 1

Just a little bit about the grading before you read my evals. 

1.       These grades are not predictions on where each player will go.  It is just my grades based upon the following:

a.       Accuracy

b.      Anticipation

2.       I do not grade screens and swing passes.

3.       I go with tape over traits

4.       Madden 19 Impact is a bonus

 

 

 

The Top 6 QB Prospects

Josh Allen

 The skinny.  The draft media is hyping Allen up as a top 5 prospect.  If a franchise QB were strictly based on traits then they would be right.  However, when I watch Allen that’s not what I see.

Games Watched:  Allen vs Iowa (2017) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pqRs8Z8eGA ; vs New Mexico https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L07nmE4AtI&t=10s ; vs Central Michigan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G6SzHKOkjs ; vs Boise State https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwbJSYqxBK0 ; vs Nebraska (2016) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utBIdiOwKUk ; vs Colorado State https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WNNGAeDdYM&t=4s ; vs Hawaii https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKcirGmk-38 ; vs Utah State https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFhabjUJ04 ;

 

Slow Processing and Risk Taker at times:

Vs Iowa (00:18; 1:08; 1:46-1:55; 5:27)  Iowa basically sat on a lot of routes because they realized Allen is slow in diagnosing/processing what’s in front of him.  Josh Jackson and the Iowa defense had an outstanding game against Wyoming.  On a lot of the plays vs Iowa Allen has too much trust in his arm and thinks he can place passes in spots that are not there (18).  At 1:46-1:55 Allen is slow to diagnose the zone coverage and once that first read was taken away, the pass rush was on him.  To his credit he made something although not much happen.

4:10 vs Boise (Doesn’t recognize the coverage and then puts too much on it.  He never looks at the Safety that picked the football off.  He thought he had the TE wide open which tells me on this play he only read one side of the field.  When they show the replay you can actually see he never looked to his left.  His helmet is to the right the entire time.)

5:10 vs Nebraska – This play stands out not because Allen was slow to process but because he just took a huge risk here.  This is also why I think he relies on his arm strength too much at times.  The WR is not open and there is nowhere for him to throw him open yet he tries to fit the pass between two defenders.

6:18 vs Nebraska – he does it again combine with his ability to escape he tries to fit this pass where there is no possible opening.  This time he got picked off.

8:40 vs Nebraska – he didn’t see the defense or his mechanics and footwork caused this pass to sail for the INT.

9:17 vs Nebraska – good job of hanging in the pocket here, but I’m not sure why he made this decision.

9:35 vs Nebraska – another Interception.

The Good:

Vs Iowa (00:22; 00:37; 00:53; 1:37; 2:45; 4:01; 4:29; 4:45; 5:41; 5:46)

Vs New Mexico (4:14)

Vs Central Michigan (00:18; 00:35)

Vs Boise State (00:29)

Vs Nebraska (00:16; 00:28; 1:31; 4:40; 8:30

Allen is a great perimeter thrower.  His arm strength pushes passes to the boundary with great zip and velocity.  He can sling it from either hash to the opposite perimeter with ease.

While not a perimeter throw (2:45), Allen throws a nice pass when linebackers are pulled up on the play fake.  Another PA fake occurs at 2:59 that probably would have been picked off in the NFL.

The throw at 4:01 is actually a good throw moving up in the pocket.  His WR did not help him out on that one.

 

At 4:29 Allen hits the WR.  It is a tad high. 

At 4:45, what a throw???  Passes like this is what makes me excited about Allen.  Unfortunately, there are not enough of them.  But even on this one look at his feet.  A lot of this is all arm, which when you think about it is crazy and tells you about his arm strength.

The throw at 00:35 vs Central Michigan is another play where you look at Allen and you see that there is something there.  Here he climbs the pocket and sends a sizzler down the seam for a TD.  If you could get more of this out of him then you know you have a guy.

 

Big Boy and Escapablity

Vs Iowa (1:08; 1:46-1:55)

Vs New Mexico 3:13-3:30

Vs Boise 7:46

Vs Nebraska (00:56

Allen has the prototypical frame of a QB that causes defenders to slide off when they make contact.

Throws that others probably cannot make due to Talent

Vs Iowa (1:05)

Vs Boise 7:46; 10:08

Vs New Mexico 3:50

The throw at 1:05 is probably ill-advised but Allen is able to complete this pass because of his arm strength.

The throw at 3:50 vs New Mexico is also one of those throws where because of his arm strength, Allen is able to find a WR in a tight space.

00:20 vs Nebraska.  I admit this probably should not have been thrown, but Allen is able to thread this pass between defenders because of his arm strength.

4:10 vs Nebraska.  This is again an example of sandlot football and fans love it.  Allen is able to sling this to the endzone on the move and find his WR for a TD.  It’s an exciting play for sure but I’d be concerned about this on an NFL field.

Discernment in taking heat off passes and accuracy

Vs Iowa 1:34; 3:34; 3:38; 3:55; 4:23; 5:00; 5:27; 6:03

Vs New Mexico 00:57

Vs Nebraska (00:45; 2:36

Granted Allen is under pressure here but he has to learn when to take heat off of passes.  This is actually one of my biggest criticisms of Allen.  Every pass tends to be a knock out punch.  The pass vs Iowa at 3:34 should be easy money but Allen as too much on this pass and he’s wide.  The very next passing snap is another pass that should be easy money, but again, Allen throws it inside behind the WR.  Then at 3:55 he got lucky this didn’t get picked off.

At 4:23 his accuracy on the run is just off.  His feet are a problem on the run here and he trusts his arm to make the play but the pass sails.  That said, it’s probably a good thing this pass sailed because it’s a tight window between the WR and #44.  The same thing can be seen vs New Mexico at 00:57.  Of course, some might say he’s cleaned this up and it is evident in his Pro Day.  However, good footwork in shorts is one thing, but when the bullets are flying does the footwork remain consistent or does he resort back?

At 5:00 I’m not sure how he didn’t see Jackson  there.  Also, this is one of those decision-making, mechanics issues.  His feet are bad here and this appears to be one of those moments where Allen trusts his arm strength way too much.

At 5:27 Allen is high on a routine hitch route by the outside WR.  His feet are a part of the problem here but one thing I think would work in his favor here is anticipation.  He’s slow on the throw.  As soon as the WR’s helmet turn the ball should have been on his numbers.  Allen is slow throwing this pass.

00:45 vs Nebraska

Allen has way too much on a slant route.  The WR is being asked to give up his entire midsection to catch this pass as he’ll have to go up and get it.

Summary:

The Good:

Allen is the prototype.  His measureables are off the charts.

The arm strength is undeniable and he can rip it.

Played in a Pro-Style offense and was required to do a lot of passing over the middle of the field into muddy areas.

For a guy his size Allen can move and is a big, strong and elusive guy that can keep plays alive.

The offense requires him to read the entire field although as noted above on some plays he just did not do that.

Plenty of experience under center and with Play Action

The Bad:

What you see of Allen vs Power 5 teams is the same thing you see vs other teams.  The power 5 teams had the athletes to make him pay for the weaknesses in his game.  In other words, he’s the same guy, but because he’s the same guy when he faced better competition things did not go so well.

Relies on his arm strength to a fault at times

Slow processing of defense at times.

Does not throw with anticipation.  Again, there are several routes where the football should be on the WR as soon as his helmet turns and what you see on tape is Allen is late on these anticipation throws and often off target.

Needs to learn when to dial the heat down on some passes.

 

I think Brian Billick's experience with Kyle Boller plays into my grade for Josh Allen.  Billick indicated that they thought that Boller’s low completion percentage was something that could be overlooked due to a lack of talent around him.  The Ravens fell in love with the traits on Boller.  I think that is the same reason the draft media pundits are in love with Josh Allen, namely, for his traits.  There is nothing on his film in terms of production that suggests he is a first round guy.  His arm strength does.  His slow processing, risk-taking, lack of anticipation, and struggles against better talent should raise some red flags.  Allen has first-round arm talent but his game tape needs to be taken more seriously. 

Grade:  late 2^nd/early 3^rd round grade.

The Madden Impact

While Allen has some serious issues with his college tape that I think should not be ignored, I think he’ll be what a Madden player who loved to deep pass dreams of.  I’m predicting a 97/98 throw power but lower accuracy numbers.  Combine the arm with 81 speed and decent elusiveness and I think you have a Madden QB that can get you into the playoffs consistently after a season of cfm development.

Madden Grade:  A