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Madden 19 (2019) AFC Playoff Percentages

by JoeBartel | 6 years ago | 0 Comments

Texans (11-1)

Remaining strength of schedule (21-23)

Key game: Week 17 against Indianapolis

Chance of claiming the No. 1 seed – 89 percent

That sound you hear is me snickering about my player rankings from last week, in which I predicted Dope would be the best team this season. Three advance periods later and the Texans appear poised for a No. 1 seed, with just a ho-hum matchup against the Colts posing any sort of immediate threat. Wins over the Jags and Raiders in successive weeks have essentially guaranteed Dope a top-2 finish, although there remains the faint possibility he could actually lose the division lead and No. 1 seed should Tillman win out. I would try and project the divisional round matchups from here, but if the seeding were to hold, I couldn’t tell you who wins between Doughboy and Danny, which would directly impact who Dope would then face in the playoffs.

 

Steelers (9-2)

Remaining strength of schedule (27-29)

Key game: Week 17 against New England

Chance of claiming a top-two seed – 76 percent

I think the Steelers lose one of these next three games – home against the Lopes, home against the Monkeys and a road matchup against the Rams – but I couldn’t tell you which one. One loss won’t be the complete end for the team’s chance at top-two spot, but two losses would be, making those three matchups plus a potentially playoff-breaking Week 17 tilt against the Patriots ultra-important. Given two of the top three teams in the AFC are in the South division, Mike could very well luck into the second bye week spot should he take care of business in those matchups.

 

Raiders (8-3)

Remaining strength of schedule (23-21)

Key game: Week 14 against Indianapolis

Chance of claiming a top-two seed – 24 percent

I don’t know what would happen if Mike and Danny finished with the same record, but the only way that scenario happens is if Danny can upset Tillman in Week 14. As are most of the AFC South games towards this time of the season, it’s going to be a fascinating and critical matchup to watch given the stakes involved. As mentioned earlier, Tillman still has a shot at the division, but let’s say a beyond-difficult schedule proves to be too much to win out – the prospects of facing the AFC East division winner in Round 1 are still very much in the cards. To add more fuel to the fire, if Tillman were to win over Danny and eventually claim the No. 5 spot, the two wouldn’t have to face one another until the Conference championships, which I suppose would be more of a prize if the AFC wasn’t strong from top to bottom. I probably have the odds too low given Danny’s abilities as a Madden player, but that has more to do with Sentra’s schedule and position in the standings as opposed to what the Raiders are capable of.

 

Jaguars (9-3)

Remaining strength of schedule (19-25)

Key game: Week 15 against Indianapolis

Chance at No. 5 seed – 51 percent

It’s as simple as this – the Jaguars will win the No. 5 seed and by default not have to face Danny in the opening round if they beat the Colts in Week 15. There’s nothing else to it. The Jags essentially control their own destiny when it comes to a Wildcard opponent, but sometimes, it’s easier said than done. Of course, the Colts could still lose two games and still beat the Jaguars, which would make this whole bit a moot point. There’s too many variables as we get down to this point to confidently predict something, but my gut tells me that Tillman’s schedule is just too daunting to overcome, and Jacksonville’s remaining games are too easy to lose.

 

Colts (9-2)

Remaining strength of schedule (39-19)

Key game: All of them?

I’ve hit 1300 words by this point, so the burnout is real, but seriously, a 39-19 schedule the rest of the way makes it way harder to predict what could happen. Games against the Texans, Raiders and Jaguars will be challenging, and a contest against the Ravens isn’t a joke either. Just one loss against any of those four ruins any chance at winning the AFC South, and a second loss guarantees the No. 6 seed. But Tillman is good enough where it’s not entirely unreasonable to assume he could win out and vault into the No. 1 or 2 seed depending on how Sentra finishes the rest of the way. I’m fascinated to watch this unfold in the same way you drive slower near a car accident – it’s going to be messy and people are going to get cranky, but damn these are some good teams competing against one another to round out the season.