Playoffs are near! Week 15 update!
by Dolfanatic | 2 years ago | 2 Comments
We're in Week 15 with 4 more weeks of football and we're finally at the late point in the season and EVERYONE has PLAYOFFS on their mind!
While some teams are thinking Superbowl, others are already thinking about the offseason. Lets dive into some Playoff scenarios!
First, we'll start with those few that are already eliminated.
Eliminated
Washington Commanders (1-12)
San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
It's crazy to think about, but all other teams are still alive due to the standings being as close and competitive as they are! Lets take a dive and look at the frontrunners before we break down how narrow the rest of the race is!
First Round Byes
Chiefs (10-3)
The Chiefs hold the first overall seed currently, but don't let that fool you. It's an extremely close race. The Texans (10-3) unexpectedly hold the 2nd seed by a single win and may have clinched a playoff appearance, but have NOT clinched their division yet. As if that's not wild enough to throw the standings all over the place, the Chargers put the Chiefs in the exact same scenario down the same amount of games from the Chiefs as the Titans are from the Texans. In a matter of weeks, both home field advantage and the First Round Bye could alternate all over the place entirely. As of right now, these outcomes and playoff seedings could be coin flipped in a matter of weeks.
To add to the drama, the Chiefs and the Chargers are currently split in terms of tiebreak scenarios because both teams have a win over each other in the games played this season. Neither team has a definitive sweep over the other. The Chargers may be down a game in terms of the standings, but they're currently up a game in terms of division wins.
Meanwhile, as we analyze the Texans and Titans division race, the Titans are down a game but lead the division in terms of division wins with 3 division wins and 1 division loss. One of those wins currently over the Texans and another game slated to be played in week 16. If these teams are still tied come week 16 and the Titans win over the Texans, they suddenly win the tiebreak and lead the division going into the final two weeks of the season.
Lions (12-1)
Looking dominant thus far in the season so far and leading the league in regular season wins are the Lions. They continue to shock the world and play well beyond expectation having dropped only a single game to the current 4th seed Giants in a game that combined for 70 total points in week 11.
Despite being 12-1 this season with 4 weeks to play, they're going to have to continue winning if they want to maintain that First Round Bye however because the Saints are continuing to play hard with only two losses themselves. Losing only to the Ravens (who we'll talk more about momentarily) and Tom Brady's Buccaneers this season.
Holding the 3 seed at the moment is the 10 win Cardinals, who the Saints don't seem too concerned about for the moment because they won a head to head earlier in the season. If it comes down to a tie in standings, the Saints hold the higher seed. The Saints have their eyes set on the 1st overall seed.
Around the League
AFC
1. Chiefs (10-3) (3-1 Division - 1-1 vs Chargers) (Clinch Playoffs with a Win)
2. Texans (10-3) (Clinch Playoffs with a Win)
3. Ravens (9-4) (Clinch Division with a Win)
4. Jets (7-6) (3-2 Division) The Jets are in a sticky spot currently due to the shakey division standings at the moment. While they control their own destiny currently, losing two of the next 4 games could prove to shake division up entirely with the Dolphins current h2h win and 3-0 division record. The remaining four games in the Jets schedule are: Lions (12-1), Jaguars (4-9), Seahawks (8-5), Dolphins (5-8). This division is looking like it could become an interesting one.
(The AFC East is entirely open and up for grabs. All teams within 3 wins and losses of each other with the Dolphins being in 2nd at 5-8 (3-0 Division), Patriots & Bills tied for 3rd at 4-9 currently)
5. Titans (9-4) (3-1 Division) (One game back from taking Division over the Texans with a h2h win.)
6. Chargers (9-4) (4-1 Division) (Seeding could change depending on tiebreak scenarios and division standings.)
7. Colts (7-6) (2-3 Division) (While the division looks extremely competitive for the Colts, they hold on at 7-6 currently with a tough schedule ahead for them with games against the Vikings, Chargers, Giants & Texans. All of which are above .500 at the moment. Their saving grace is that they're 2 wins up on the rest of the hunt. While the rest of the schedule looks brutal for the Colts, they do still control their own playoff destiny at the moment.)
IN THE HUNT
8. Dolphins (5-8) (3-0 Division) One of many teams sitting at 5-8 at the moment, this team looks like a frontrunner for sneaking into the 7 seed if the Colts happen to slip given how challenging the final 4 weeks appear to be for the Colts. In addition to the potential that the Dolphins have to sneak into that 7th seed, the Dolphins are also only 2 games back of winning division while also having a current tiebreak over the Jets. If the Dolphins beat the Jets and win a game during a week that the Jets lose, the Dolphins then control their own destiny.
9. Steelers (5-8) With the division seemingly being out of reach due to the Ravens being 4 wins above the Steelers, the only real chance the Steelers have is to clinch a Wildcard by having a better record than the Colts. One win by either the Chargers or Titans put the 6 seeds out of reach. It's 7 seed or bust for the Steelers.
10. Browns (5-8) With the division seemingly being out of reach due to the Ravens being 4 wins above the Browns, the only real chance that the Browns have is to clinch a Wildcard by having a better record than the Colts. One win by either the Chargers or Titans put the 6 seeds out of reach. It's 7 seed or bust for the Browns. As if this isn't detrimental enough, the Browns would also need to have a game up over the Dolphins due to the Dolphins winning the h2h. The Browns need a lot of help to squeak into the playoffs.
11. Broncos (5-8) With division well out of reach given the Chiefs 10 win season thus far, the Broncos only chance at making it to the playoffs is through a Wildcard seed. Given all of the other 5-8 tiebreak scenarios, the Broncos appear to need a lot of help to make this miracle run happen. The Broncos finish their season against the Cardinals (10-3), Rams (6-7), Chiefs (10-3), Chargers (9-4) and given the current standings, every team continues to have a seed to fight for. Don't expect any starters to become benched against this team.
12. Bengals (5-8) With the division seemingly being out of reach due to the Ravens being 4 wins above the Browns, the only real chance that the Bengals have is to clinch a Wildcard by having a better record than the Colts. One win by either the Chargers or Titans put the 6 seeds out of reach. It's 7 seed or bust for the Bengals. Fortunately, unlike the Browns the Bengals did win h2h over the Dolphins giving them the tiebreak scenario if it comes down to it.
13. Patriots & Bills (4-9)
It's not impossible to believe that an 8-9 team could make it into the playoffs when looking at the remaining schedules of all 5-8 teams in the hunt. In addition to that detail, these teams are sitting in arguably the most competitive division in football. At least in terms of survivability when it comes to division records and standings that is.
NFC
1. Lions (12-1) (4-0 Division) (Clinched Division)
While it may not be a guaranteed first seed, this team clinched division already due to their dominant division record. The more important detail that makes this record all that much more impressive is knowing that this entire division is still in the hunt if not in the playoffs despite how dominant this team has looked. Every team in the NFC North is above .500 this season.
2. Saints (11-2) (Clinched Division) Another team that clinched playoffs due to being 6 wins up with 4 weeks remaining in the season. The Saints are only a game back of the Lions and are looking at a 1st round bye if the Lions were to slip. If the Lions lose to a team in the NFC and the Saints manage the tiebreak, the Saints would take the 1st seed simply due to having a better conference record. Both the Saints & Lions are 11-1 in NFC matchups currently and it's worth noting that the final three weeks of the season are all NFC matchups for the Lions. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Saints are 3 games up from the 4th seed so a win clinches a top 3 seed. If the Cardinals lose, the Saints clinch a top 2 seed due to having a regular season h2h win over the Cardinals.
3. Cardinals (10-3) (4-1 Division) As mentioned in the Saints details above, the Cardinals are currently two wins above the 4th seeded Giants (8-5). The Cardinals would remain the lower seed if tied with the Saints due to losing the h2h earlier this season. Additionally, the Seahawks are currently the 5th seeded team only two wins back from taking division. This division is not locked yet. The Seahawks (8-5) and even the Rams (6-7) are still outside looking in at stealing it for themselves. A Cardinals win eliminates the Rams from any possibility of winning division, but the Seahawks would continue to remain in the tight race for a few weeks longer. The Cardinals however do appear to have an easy schedule against the Broncos (5-8), Buccaneers (4-9), Falcons (5-8), 49ers (3-10). Any of the following teams could potentially look to play spoiler but it doesn't appear to be a stressful locking of a division at a glance for now.
4. Giants (8-5) (3-1 Division) This team may be the most underrated team that we write about today. Sitting in the 4 seed currently but managing to be the only team to take a game off of the nearly undefeated Lions. With a single win, especially a division win, this team locks up their division and punches a ticket to playoffs.
5. Seahawks (8-5) (2-2 Division) This team is keeping things interesting. Splitting wins with the Cardinals this season keeps them relevant in winning division while only being back 2 games. This team either wins by a single score or loses the game hard trying. What makes this team interesting, is knowing who the notable wins and losses are. Half of the Seahawks games this season to this point are current playoff teams. They finish their season against the 49ers (3-10), Chiefs (10-3), Jets (7-6), and Rams (6-7).
6. & 7. Bears & Packers (3-1 Division & 0-4 Division) (8-5)
THIS is where things get EXTREMELY interesting. The reason as to why things are so interesting is in the standings themselves. The ENTIRE NFC North is fighting for the playoffs. This division became a brutal bloodbath and will continue to get worse.
The Bears are 3-1 within their respective division which is why they have the higher seed over the Packers given the tiebreaker circumstances. Not only are they better within division, but they also won the h2h twice sweeping the Packers. The Bears do however need to watch out for the 8th seeded Vikings because the Vikings do appear to control their own destiny barring a Bears loss to the Lions in week 17. The Bears remaining four games are the Eagles (5-8), Bills (4-9), Lions (12-1), Vikings (7-6).
The Packers are winless in division so a loss to the Vikings or Lions in the final two weeks of the season would be absolutely HUGE. We forgot to mention by the way that the Packers play the desperate Rams (6-7) who are still alive in week 15. The Dolphins in week 16 who are looking competitive in an extremely tight division & wildcard race. The Vikings who are seeded at #8 currently back by a single win and a division win up on the Packers... and do we even need to bring up the Lions? The only saving grace that the Packers MIGHT have is that the Lions may have nothing to play for in week 18 and may possibly rest their players... and if you believe that, you're an optimist.
8. Vikings (7-6) All this talk about the NFC North is what we all live for when it comes to the NFL and the Playoff anticipation! This is why we couldn't wait for a 3rd wildcard seed to be added. The added excitement of the possibility of an ENTIRE division making the playoffs!? We're LIVING for it! The Vikings remaining schedule isn't an easy one, but they seem to control their own destiny at the moment. The remaining games in the Vikings schedule are the Colts (7-6), Giants (8-5), Packers (8-5), Bears (8-5). If the Vikings manage to win out, they clinch a playoff seed guaranteed simply because they win the tiebreaker sweep and divisional record standings over the Packers. However, the schedule ahead doesn't appear to be an easy one with two brutal division games in the schedule, the inconsistent yet dominant Giants and a Colts roster that looks to maintain and hold onto that final wildcard seed. It's worth noting though that the final two games of the Lions schedule are against, you guessed it, the Bears and Packers working in the Vikings favor barring that there isn't an upset that is.
9. Rams (6-7) Benefiting from the brutal possibilities of the NFC North beating up on one another could be the Rams. Back two games currently with full awareness of how difficult the schedule is for the 6, 7 and 8 seeds above them. These Rams could manage to sneak in unnoticed with a remaining schedule against the Packers (8-5), Broncos (5-8), Chargers (9-4), Seahawks (8-5). A win this week against the Packers would really ramp their chances up.
10. Panthers & Falcons (5-8) While it's unlikely we have to discuss all possibilities here! One loss and these teams appear to be done with how close the rest of the seeding is. Division is out of reach, it's Wildcard or bust for these teams.
11. Cowboys & Eagles (5-8) (3-2 Division & 3-1 Division) The Cowboys and Eagles are both in a much better situation than the Panthers and Falcons who have the same record as them currently at 5-8. The difference for these two teams however, is that barring a Giants slip up, these teams can actually make it to the playoffs by winning division OR through the Wildcard currently.
The Cowboys did manage to take a game off of the Giants earlier this season while losing the other. If the Cowboys win out, they would finish 4-2 in Division. They would need some help from the Eagles or Commanders however to force the Giants to have an equal or worse division record to bring it to Conference wins to win division.
The Eagles are actually in a much better situation currently being tied with a 3-1 division record. The Eagles remaining four games however are the challenging realization... They play the Bear (8-5), Cowboys (5-8), Saints (11-2), and Giants (8-5).
Even if the Eagles & Cowboys win in week 15, one of the two eliminate the opposite in week 16 based on how tightly contested division records are.