Week 11: AFC Playoff Picture

by Dolfanatic | 6 years ago | 0 Comments

With the season being more than halfway over, we're taking a live look at the AFC Playoff Picture and potential scenarios - which may seem completely crazy to fans around the world.

The AFC East is currently being held with a spontaneous and mind-blowing 3 way tie at 7-3 between the Patriots, Dolphins, and Bills while the Jets are surviving in the hunt at 4-6 after losing both Quarterbacks on the roster to injury during the blowout game against Buffalo in recent weeks. All 4 teams are also coming off an abnormal entire division bye week. Although the Dolphins are currently leading the division in H2H matchups and Division wins, the upcoming games could certainly shift the division in the event of a tie and we'll explain why below in a moment. But before we explain why, lets discuss the action that could prevent one of these 3 (or 4?) teams from making playoffs as nothing is certain yet with two AFC South teams fighting for the division (and wildcard) as well. 

The Jaguars and Colts are both sitting at only 1 loss each going into Week 11, with the Colts losing only to the Patriots and the Jaguars losing an enormous division game to the Colts.

The remaining notable games in the schedule that are most likely to shake up this division are as follows:

Dolphins: Bills x2, Patriots, Jaguars, Colts

The Dolphins and Bills are expected to have a brutal rivalry as both teams have a battle for the Division title ahead of them with both games against each other remaining - one of which happens next week, the other however being a week 17 showdown. As if that's not a difficult task for them, with the standings being the way that they are, it's looking as if a 10 win season won't be enough to make the post-season, at least not without a tiebreaker. As of right now the Dolphins have that tie-breaker, but depending on who wins over who to reach that tie, it may not make a difference seeing as this team still have 3 remaining division games and lost a game within division to the Jets earlier in the season. The Dolphins currently control their own destiny, but with ONE loss, they could completely lose that destiny if they lose to the wrong team, or if they don't receive the help that they need along the way. The most challenging look at the remainder of this teams schedule is the fact that the teams they're playing have a combined 8 losses (excluding the Vikings who we're expecting to be a sweep - but hey! In professional football we've seen crazier things happen.)

Patriots: Dolphins, Bills, Jets x2

The Patriots easily have the most simple, easiest path to the playoffs and for this reason, we believe that the Patriots or the Dolphins will win the division, determined completely by how this head to head matchup goes of course, along with whether or not Miami can hold their own against the remaining AFC South teams on their schedule. If this team beats the Dolphins, we think that they'll win the division.

Bills: Dolphins x2, Patriots, Jaguars, Lions, Jets

The Bills arguably have the most difficult schedule ahead of them in the AFC East having to play 4 of their 6 division games in the final 6 weeks of the season. If there's any upside to this remainder of the schedule for them, or any reason for fans to be optimistic, it's that they shutout the Jets when playing away and they play 4 of their next 6 MUST WIN games at home.

Jaguars: Bills, Colts, Texans, Redskins, Titans, Dolphins

We're expecting the Colts to win the division with the strength of schedule favoring them much more, but there are plenty of division matchups for both teams that could certainly shake things up. Additionally, the biggest wildcard factor here is that there are 2 AFC East teams that are both out for blood to keep their post-season hopes alive on the Jaguars schedule that could certainly change up the standings pretty roughly in the next coming weeks. What we ultimately think this division seeding will come down to, is the Head to Head between both teams that are only 1 loss each currently - those two being the Colts/Jaguars sharing that same division. The Colts have the advantage, but if they tie the series, this is anyone's division with a few more tough games along the way.

Colts: Dolphins, Jaguars, Titans, Giants, Cowboys, Texans

Don't let the record of these teams fool you. But don't expect anything spactular from these games either. We expect the Colts to be caught sleeping if an upset happens to be pulled off - and because of the remainder of the schedule, they're the Wildcard favorites at the #5 seed regardless of whether this team wins the division or not. What we're really keeping an eye on, is whether the first round bye goes to the Colts or Jaguars - we're expecting both to make playoffs. The Dolphins could and may play spoiler as they're fighting hard for their division in a 3 way tie, but the Jaguars could tie the series up fighting for that seed placement as well.

 

We may not know who is going to make playoffs quite yet, but what we do know is that of these 5 teams, 2 of them will ultimately win the division and 2 are likely to receive the Wildcard - meaning that one of these playoff deserving teams will be left behind. It's also possible that we see the Chargers or Browns in the playoffs as well, provided everything falls into place for these teams and they continue winning, but they'd definitely need to see a lot of help along the way. Additionally, because all of these teams play each other, they'd need things to fall into place perfectly while they continue winning their own games which brings their playoff hope chances down even slimmer. The games we'll be keeping the closest eyes on are:

Colts vs Jaguars

Dolphins vs Colts

Jaguars vs Bills

Dolphins vs Bills

Bills vs Dolphins

Dolphins vs Patriots

Jaguars vs Dolphins

Jets vs Division

We're expecting upsets, but there's no calling who they'll be and how much they'll disrupt the standings. But if and when they happen, it'll shake up everything.