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Criticalmass231

Member Since 7 years ago

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2022-01-08

AFC Playoff Picture Prediction

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nWzPhOlOrwluMn6j_-fVNmgo5TDKSIoNtdlEGjhaucQ/edit?usp=sharing

 

Enjoy

2021-09-13

Rule Changes and Additions

Chew Clock Changes

  • Inside 2 minutes of either half (voluntary)
  • Up by 25 points (4 possessions) or more in the 4th (voluntary)
  • Up by 35 in 2nd half. (Mandatory)
  • If both users agree, chew clock can be turned on at anytime.

 

Dev Regression

 

This will be active to start M22. When your player receives a regression, they can be put back to their original dev if they fit any of these categories in the same season they regressed (users will be responsible to bring this to the admins attention):

  • Made Pro Bowl
  • Were a Top 5 Finalist for any award
  • Received an end of year dynamic dev

 

Reroll Changes:

  • Frequency stays the same (1 per season SB to SB)
  • person who gets all same abilities on reroll gets another reroll (if only one stays the same oh well)
  • Players can be rerolled more than once long as it fits the one per year rule
  • Same abilities are considered for free reroll (ex
  • Remove the 1 scheme change per cycle ie 3-4 to 4-3 and also remove reroll to “fit scheme” for newly acquired player

 

Trade Committee Changes:

  • Ben runs TC
  • chooses members with a mix of skill and experience (members alternate each season)
  • will use spreadsheet that will give baseline for trades (made by ben/alex and everyone will have access to use it)
  • Document will be created to keep database of approved trades to use as reference to be consistent throughout cycle

 

2021-07-19

Lottery Simulation Results

User Avg Spot Sim 1 sim 2 sim 3 sim 4 sim 5
phil 7 12 1 3 2 17
chap 11 11 29 6 7 2
nick 11.4 20 12 16 4 5
Duhooty 11.8 1 4 4 18 32
ryan 12.2 10 14 9 27 1
fern 12.2 16 28 5 1 11
chase 13 6 5 14 30 10
cmass 13.8 30 2 20 5 12
kook 14 4 25 26 11 4
connor 14.4 8 17 8 25 14
hero 14.8 28 11 2 24 9
cloud 15.2 9 23 1 23 20
austin 15.6 5 7 28 31 7
caiden 16.2 7 26 11 29 8
kiing 16.4 14 13 25 8 22
p 16.6 32 10 18 17 6
ben 17.2 17 9 24 9 27
finn 17.8 31 6 13 10 29
kumar 18 24 22 10 16 18
cam 18.2 15 24 17 19 16
gamble 18.2 27 16 23 12 13
justin 18.4 18 18 12 20 24
little alex 19 2 8 32 28 25
alex 19.4 25 19 19 6 28
tim 19.6 21 15 7 32 23
lucky 19.6 23 3 15 26 31
bos 19.6 29 32 21 13 3
cody 19.8 3 27 29 14 26
morty 20.2 19 30 22 15 15
steel 21.2 22 20 31 3 30
taint 23 26 21 27 22 19
dan 23.2 13 31 30 21 21

 

2021-03-27

Best Position Groups

Since we are not vancing until Monday I figured I would right something up as my son watches “Raya the Last Dragon” for the 20th time in a week. Btw it slaps. Here is my rankings on position groups as we sit today with our current rosters. Hopefully, I’ll be able to explain this pretty well.

Categories

No QB or RB Groups - Since these are usually only one player carrying the load I did not see the point in doing these groups. Think we all can agree Matt Davis and Mahomes are the best QBs and Akers, Boothe, Saquon, Zeke are prob the best RBs

Best Offensive Line – No Explanation needed there

Best Receiving Core - Here I included WRs, TEs and RBs

Best Defensive Line – Here I included pass rushing LBs as well

Best LB Core – These exclude Pass rushing LBs and mostly pass coverage and run stuffers

Best Secondary – No explanation needed

 

Calculations – I calculated avg Overall based on a position group. For example, for Oline if you have a 99, 98,97,96,95 Overall players on your line, your avg Overall is 97 overall. I used this to help make my decision but isn’t the final determining factor. Sometimes Speed or Abilities can alter my decision. My judgements also are “in a vacuum” where I am only considering the players right now. Not as if I would be taking over this team for a cycle but if I needed them for one season.

 

 

Alright let’s kick things off!

Best Offensive Line : Saints 86.8

95 Terron Armstead (SuperStar)

80 Jawaan Taylor

86 Eric McCoy

76 Silas Hyde

97 Ryan Ramczyk (SuperStar)

This was not the highest because the colts had the highest at an 87. The two tackles tipped the scales for me as they both have some sort of Edge Protecting Ability which is huge. Colts had the best overall Offensive line but only one ability player. 

 

Also considered: Pats 84.8, Ravens 84.6, Texans 83.8 , Colts 87, Raiders 84.2 , Cards 83.2

 

Best Receiving Core: Packers 92.6

93 Deonte Harris (SuperStar)

92 Keenan Allen (X-Factor)

89 Brandon Aiyuk (SuperStar)

94 Evan Engram (SuperStar)

95 Aaron Jones (X-Factor)

This may come as a shock to most because they never see the packers play or they see their record. But damn do they have talent. Every Player in this core has abilities which only the Packers and Bucs can claim for the receiving core. It came down to the Bucs and Packers and I chose to run with the Packers due to certain abilities like slot o matic as well as the upgrade of Evan engram over OJ Howard as well as Aaron Jones over Bo Kelly. If it were strictly WRs, I’d probably select the Bucs. I was also strongly considering the Cowboys WR core mostly because it iss extremely fast and 3 Ability WRs. 

 

Also Considered: Bears 90, Bills 91.8, Broncos 90.8, Chargers 89, Cowboys 88.4, Falcons 90.4, 49ers 91.2, Hawks 88.8

 

Best Defensive Line (Including Pass Rush LBs): Bears 95

97 Josh Allen (X-Factor)

96 Grady Jarrett (X-Factor)

96 Arik Armstead (X-Factor)

91 Jadeveon Clowney (SuperStar)

This is the 2nd highest rated ovr group we have of all the position groups. This was a fairly easy choice considering the disparity. Calculations for this group were done with your 4 best rushers whether they were on the line or LB. Think this group is hard to argue and have a good balance of pass rush and run stop abilities

 

Also considered: 49ers 91.5, Cards 89.5, Pats 89.5, Chiefs 88.5, Giants 87, Rams 86.8, WFT 90.3

 

Best Linebacking Core (Excluding Pass Rush LBs): Patriots 86.6

92 Trumaine Edmunds (X-Factor)

92 Isiah Simmons (X-Factor)

76 Next best player who cares

This is probably the toughest one I had to choose simply because the Patriots only had 2 viable LBs. I am pro “LBs don’t matter” so this one was harder to judge. Was really tempted to go with the Bengals or the Colts due to more than 2 studs and the colts had 3 guys with abilities. But in the end, I chose the two absolute freaks in NE.

 

Also considered: Colts 87.3, Bengals 88, Giants 86.6, Panthers 83, 49ers 87

 

Best Secondary: Browns 95.8

99 Grant Delpit (SuperStar)

97 Greedy Williams (X-Factor)

97 Denzel Ward (X-Factor)

90 Ronnie Harrison (X-Factor)

Like was there any doubt? This was the highest rated group of any position group. This group led the browns to a SB in S3 and continue to help the Connor led team have a great defense. Something also to note, this is the only best group with all original members. All these guys were starters since day 1. That speaks volumes to the development connor did with this secondary. Didn’t even include Chris Westry who is also a stud.

 

Also Considered: Bears 92.8, Bengals 88, Bills 87.3, Broncos 88.5, Cards 88, Chiefs 92, Lions 89.3, Pacckers 89.3, Panthers 89, Pats 91, Rams 89.5, Hawks 92.8

 

Recap:

Best Offensive Line: Saints 86.8

Best Receiving Core: Packers 92.6

Best Defensive Line: Bears 95

Best LB Core: Patriots 86.6

Best Secondary: Browns 95.8

 

2020-10-15

AFC Playoff Predictions and Super Bowl

AFC Playoff Predictions and SB

 

AFC Projected Seeding

  1. CIN
  2. NE
  3. JAX
  4. LAC
  5. PIT
  6. LVR
  7. BUF

 

WildCard Round:

NE over BUF

Notes – Experience, Experience, Experience. While Little Alex had a nice game winning drive a few weeks ago, he is still inexperienced in the playoffs. Bad matchup going against Austin who has as much experience in the playoffs as anyone. Austin could blow this game by trying to push the ball downfield against this highly athletic secondary in BUF, but I anticipate he will be conservative and play to win.

 

JAX loses to LVR

Notes – Echoing the above sentiment. Experience in the playoffs cant be overstated. Morty has multiple SBs and will just be happy to have made playoffs. Cam took advantage of the weakest schedule in the league and his good season will come to an end here.

 

LAC over PIT

Notes – Bad matchup for Jesse. While chase can run the ball he is mostly looking to pass downfield to his speedy WRs and PITT has no corners in the secondary over 90 speed. If Chase makes bad decisions, he could choke this one away but I think he will do enough to win.

 

Divisional Round:

CIN over LVR

Notes – This game will come down to Morty. Will he play playoff football and run with Jacobs against this horrible run defense in Cincinnatti? Or will he be too tempted to throw downfield with Ruggs and the rest of the receiving core. If it’s the latter, which I think it will, he will throw to many INTs and will lose this game against a disciplined user in Cody.

 

NE over LAC

Notes – Austin will get caught up in a shootout with Chase and will out score him. Austin has already proven this season to be able to beat this Chargers team. Now can chase win? Absolutely. I think Chase could smoke Austin in the right scenario but in this one I believe Austin will lean on the same gameplan that won him the game in Week 13.

 

AFC Championship:

CIN over NE

Notes – No one respects Austins gameplay more than Cody. Cody always says people sleep on Austin. Cody will not sleep in this game. He will lean more on the run game with not having to worry about getting Burrow his yards. Cody’s biggest Achilles heel is stopping the run and Austin just doesn’t have that top RB to break the big runs even though he does have the 7th ranked rush offense.

 

Super Bowl:

NYG over CIN

Notes – If you told me before this season that I would predict Hero Austin to win the SB I would never believe you. While Cody won the regular season matchup in Week 12, I think this ending will be different. Saquon will still dominate this Bengals defense but Daniel Jones had arguably his worst game against the Bengals and I cant imagine Austin having his worst game again. Cody begs for sliders to be changed after this game as Saquon goes for over 200 with ease and 3 TD’s

 

2020-10-15

NFC Playoff Prediction

NFC Playoff Predictions

Projected Seeding:

  1. NYG
  2. NO
  3. SF
  4. CHI
  5. CAR
  6. ARZ
  7. SEA/DET

 

WildCard Round:

NO over SEA/DET

Notes – SEA would be a much better matchup to face this OP Saints Passing Offense. Hawks currently have 4th ranked Pass def while the lions have the 24th best. If dan plays DET I think its an easy win. If he Plays Lucky I think it has a potential to be an upset if lucky can keep the turnovers to 1 or less. All in all dan wins this first round more than likely.

 

SF loses to ARZ

Notes – While I think Ben will be victorious in their last regular season matchup, I believe cloud will come out on top in the playoffs. Clouds defense is one of, if not the best defense in the league. Ben has the worst pass def and Cloud has always been a gifted passer. It is probably the worst case scenario matchup for Ben in the wildcard.

 

CHI loses to CAR

Notes – If I am being honest with myself, I will more thank likely lose this game. This is a bad matchup for the Bears great but slow WRs against this speedy Defensive backfield in Carolina. These teams played earlier in the season which led to a CAR victory. Unless steel just plays awful on offense he should win this one based on the defense.

 

Divisional Round:

NYG over ARZ

Notes – Bad matchup for Cloud. He plays better against users who are relying on the pass and look to push the ball downfield. Daniel Jones has been extremely efficient and Saquon is going to get his yards. If cloud can match QB efficiency with Danny Dimes then he can keep it close but easier said then done. These two met earlier in the year which led to a 10 pt victory for the Giants

 

NO loses to CAR

Notes – Dan at this point has beaten Steel twice this season. It is incredibly hard to beat someone 3xs in one season. At this point steel will be as locked in as possible and based on what history has told me with steel in the playoffs against someone who has beaten him often, he will show up big.

 

NFC Championship:

NYG over CAR

Notes – Eventually Danny Dimes has to have a bad game right? This imo could be the time. Everytime I have counted Austin out this season he has found a way to win or be in the position to do so. Steel coming off the high of finally beating Dan, will be brought back to earth from the hangover.

 

2020-10-14

NFC Division Winners and Wildcard Seed Predictions

NYG: (W v BAL) (W v DAL) Finish (13-3)

Notes – Easy road to the 1 seed for Austin. Earned it

 

NO: (FW v MIN) (W v CAR) Finish (13-3)

Notes – Dan squeaks out the victory v Steel but I could see it going either way

 

ARZ: (L v SF) (W v LAR) Finish (11-5)

Notes – Cloud splits with Ben and then gets the big dub against Kiing

 

CHI: (W v JAX) (W v GB) Finish (10-6)

Notes – Cmass pulls out the must win v JAX to stay alive and then collects his stat game v Mike

 

CAR: (W v WAS) (L v NO) Finish (12-4)

Notes – Steel has had a great season yet falls short of the div lead against dan in week 17

 

SF: (W v ARZ) (W v SEA) Finish (11-5)

Notes – Ben gets revenge from that huge comeback loss he had to Cloud and then puts Lucky into a EA limbo for a wild card spot

 

LAR: (L v SEA) (L v ARZ) Finish (8-8)
Notes – Kiing choked his chances away with a Loss to the Jets in Week 15

 

SEA: (W v LAR) (L v SF) Finish (9-7)

Notes – Lucky puts the nail in the coffin for Kiing and then chokes the week 17 game to ben and leaves himself in a pray to the EA gods for a playoff spot
 

DET: (W v TB) (FW v MIN) Finish (9-7)

Notes – How does Fern still have a shot? We thought he was dead in the water but here he is with a EA chance to get in.

 

NFC Seeding:

  1. NYG (13-3)
  2. NO (13-3)
  3. SF (11-5)
  4. CHI (10-6)
  5. CAR (12-4)
  6. ARZ (11-5)
  7. SEA/DET (9-7)

Notes – Austin gets the top spot due to conference win %. Ben wins the West with a div win % tiebreaker with Cloud after they split the regular season. SEA and DET I gave up once I got to the 4 tiebreaker for them. Didn’t play h2h same conf record and don’t have enough similar opponents for that tiebreaker to qualify (4). Now its up to strength of victory and that was too much work.
 

 

2020-10-14

AFC Division Winner and Wildcard Seed Predictions

AFC

PIT : (W v IND)(W v CLE) Finish (12-4)
Notes – Can’t see him losing to Justin with that Run Def and it could be close against Connor but he pulls it out
 

LAC: (W v DEN) (L v KC) Finish (10-6)

Notes – This is purely based on splitting with both users. AFC West stupid competitive

 

JAX: (L v CHI) (W v IND) Finish (11-5)

Notes – Loss to CMass who is fighting for his life and a good win against Justin to get the division

 

BUF: (L v NE) (W v MIA) Finish (10-6)

Notes – Tough loss against Austin based purely on experience in big games. MIA already looking towards the draft

 

CIN: (W for HOU) (W v BAL) Finish (12-4)

Notes – 2 craaazzzzyyyy big wins for cody. Joe Burrow goes off in both wins

 

NE: (W v BUF) (W v NYJ) Finish (11-5)

Notes – Big win against Lil alex based on experience and easy dub v Jets

 

DEN: (L v LAC) (L v LVR) Finish (9-7)

Notes – Tough back to back losses in the division for Phil

 

IND: (L v PIT) (L v JAX) Finish (9-7)

Notes – Justin does justin things and loses out

 

CLE: (W for NYJ) (L v PIT) Finish (9-7)

Notes – Really wanted to give connor the dub against the steelers but just couldn’t do it

LVR: (W v MIA) (W for DEN) Finish (10-6)
Notes – Most people wouldn’t think Morty would be in the playoff race based on the start of the season yet here we are.

 

AFC Seeding:

1.       CIN (12-4)

2.       NE (11-5)

3.       JAX (11-5)

4.       LAC (10-6)

5.       PIT (12-4)

6.       LVR (10-6)

7.       BUF (10-6)

Notes – Cody gets the North after the h2h and div record tie breakers were tied with PITT because he had the better common game win %. NE over JAX for the 2nd seed for conf wins because they did not play. LVR beats out BUF for the 6 seed due to H2H