As Week 14 of the MSFL season is coming to a close, I thought it would be fun to take a look at what most Head Coaches will be vying for over the last three weeks of the regular season. Some teams have already locked up playoff spots or divisions, and some are still looking to secure their place in the postseason......some are uh, praying to make it to Week 1 of 2023. Best of luck to those guys, but we will be focusing on the teams that are either going to the playoffs or have a decent shot of making it to the playoffs.
There are currently 8 teams that are vying for the 6 playoff spots in the AFC:
1. Bills: Current Record: 9-3; Projected Finish: 13-3.
The Bills don't have the easiest schedule the rest of the way, as they face two other AFC teams that are fighting for the playoffs, but the defending champs have proven time and time again that they are capable of taking anyone on, and I believe they will go 4-0 to finish out the year and grab hold of the #1 seed in the AFC thanks to their top 5 defense, and an offense that rarely turns the ball over.
2. Bengals: Current record: 10-3; Projected Finish: 12-4.
Cincinnati knows what they want to do on offense and they execute it to perfection thanks to the likes of Corey Davis and Zack McClain. The Bengals are the #1 pass offense in the NFL and one of the most dangerous offenses overall. I expect them to ultimately come out on top of the AFC North, a division that will likely be decided Week 15 in a rematch with the Browns, also 10-3. This team was one of the most popular breakout picks during the offseason and they haven't disappointed.
3. Colts: Current Record: 10-3; Projected Finish: 12-4
Wow. Just as Cincinatti was the favorite to take the next step this offseason, Indy was the most likely to take a step back after trading away Luck and having to rely on Jameis Winston and a slew of unimpressive rookie QBs. At this point it's safe to say that they have proven the doubters wrong. After a shaky start trying to find an offensive identity, the Colts have turned the offense over to their star RB Hines, and he hasn't let them down, leading the team to victory in 8 of their last 9 outings. The AFC South is in a very similar situation to the AFC North, as the division will likely come down to the Week 17 matchup against the Titans.
4. Chiefs: Current Record: 8-4; Projected Finish: 11-5
"Who needs defense?"- apparently the new slogan of Kansas City, the Chiefs went all out in the offseason and added WR DeAndre Hopkins to their already stacked group of pass catchers. Thanks to the potent recievers and efficient (though underutilized) run game, 2nd year QB Craft has avoided the dreaded sophomore slump and has played his way into the MVP conversation. The defense on the other hand has taken a massive leap backwards after arguably being a top 10 unit a season ago. They are getting gashed on the ground every week and probably regret casting off Chris Jones just to save a few bucks. At any rate, the AFC West is the third division here that will come down to a crucial matchup in the final 3 weeks as LAC looks to reclaim the division in a big Week 16 matchup.
5. Browns: Current Record: 10-3; Projected Finish: 12-4
Cleveland is proving that 2021 was just a fluke as they have been dominant this year, in large part to the massive trade for MLB Devin Bush in exchange for the #1 pick in this past draft, and a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley. In fact, there is a good chance that the Browns end up with the #2 seed in the entire AFC if they are able to knock off Cincinnati. Regardless, with too many offensive weapons to count, and a sprinkling of superstars on defense, this team will definitely be playing in January, and has the potential to make some noise regardless of the final seed they end up with.
6. Titans: Current Record: 9-3; Projected Finish: 12-4
You could pretty much copy/paste a lot of what was said about Cleveland here for Tennessee. Make no mistake, their projected 6 seed doesn't do this team justice. As explosive an offense as any, this Titans squad lead by QB Patrick Mahomes is a scary sight for opposing defenses. This team has lots of depth at the WR position, and they use every one of them as Mahomes runs and guns down the field with ease. The defense is a bit of a weakness, as they had to give most of it up for Mahomes, but trust me, the Titans do not regret it. They will gladly challenge another team to a shootout, as they know Mahomes will likely come out on top. If the Titans can sweep Indy this season, they will likely vault up to the #3 seed in the AFC, but in a rivalry game, who knows what will happen.
Still Alive:
Ravens: Current Record: 7-5; Projected Finish: 9-7
At 7-5 with a rough schedule to end the year, it's unlikely they will be able to sneak into the playoffs without a collapse by one of the above teams coupled with a very strong finish to the year. If anyone can do it though, it's Lamar Jackson. It may be a difficult road, but don't count out this Ravens squad just yet.
Chargers: Current Record: 7-5; Projected Finish: 9-7
Only a game out of 1st in the AFC West, this team could actually end up with the AFC West crown by season's end. Already having beaten the Chiefs once, a victory in Week 16 over KC would likely be enough to steal the division from last year's champs. If they were to lose that game, a 10-6 finish could still conceivably earn them a Wild Card spot with a little help from some other teams. Regardless of what happens, this team had an incredible turnaround from last season and has shown that the AFC West isn't quite as bad as people think.
Bonus Playoff Predictions:
Wild Card: Tennessee over Indianapolis; Kansas City over Cleveland
Divisional Round: Tennessee over Buffalo; Cincinnati over Kansas City
Conference Championship: Tennessee over Cincinnati
AFC North
Steelers- current record: 8-1 predicted finish: 9-7
As defending super bowl champions, the Steelers were looking like strong contenders to repeat their performance from last season. That is, until the staff was caught using banned oxygen tanks on the sidelines to keep their players a little “extra” fresh. The MSFL leadership had no choice but to relieve the coach of his duties, and the Steelers brought in an unknown talent.
The new coach wasn’t able to keep the win streak going after having very little time to prepare, and this team’s future is very much in question for this season. Can the new coach step up? Or will he crumble under the pressure of the difficult AFC North?
Bengals- current record: 4-5 predicted finish: 7-9
What to say about Cincinnati. They made the trade of the century by acquiring the generational talent Patrick Mahomes…..only to send him packing just weeks later. This team has shown lots of promise considering the state of the roster, but no one knows who the HC will trade next. At least with the deadline having passed, the players are safe….for now.
With so much uncertainty around this team, it’s hard to make a solid prediction for the rest of the season, but if they decide to put their faith in the players they acquired from Tennessee and that they draft, they could be building something special over the coming seasons.
Ravens- current record: 5-4 predicted finish: 10-6
Coming into the year, the Ravens likely planned to ride the reigning MVP to another postseason appearance. Unfortunately things don’t always work out according to plan. Lamar Jackson was unable to finish the game in a loss to KC week 1. Although he was back the next week, it didn’t seem to matter as the Browns handed them an even worse defeat. After it seemed they finally had gotten back on course after a couple victories, Jackson was handed down a four game suspension for violating league conduct rules. Halfway through the suspension, though, the Ravens are 2-0 and have looked pretty good without Jackson. They will definitely be in the thick of the playoff race, and will give the Browns a run for the division as well.
The real question in Baltimore now though, is what will they do with Lamar Jackson after proving they can win without him? Is he worth the payday he will demand? Or will they follow the Chiefs lead and trade Jackson for draft capital?
Browns- current record: 6-3 predicted finish: 11-5
Cleveland has one of the most well-built rosters in the league thanks to some savvy trades by the HC, and they were rolling to start the season with a 5-1 record. Since then, however, they have hit a bit of a rough patch going 1-2 over the past three weeks. The offense had been decent during that stretch, but the defense was atrocious. After recovering from a bad outing against KC by defeating the Jets, the entire team collapsed in the 4th quarter against the unpredictable Bengals.
Don’t count out these Browns, though, because they are just as dangerous as ever. The injury bug had been hampering newly acquired RB Barkley, but look for him to finish the season strong as Cleveland takes advantage of the fire the Steelers are busy putting out. This is a playoff team, and probably a division champion.
AFC East
Patriots- current record: 2-7 predicted finish: 4-12
There is not much to be said about the post-Brady/Belichick era. They continue to struggle to field a competitive squad as Brissett proves time and time again that he is not the heir to the Brady throne as so many labeled him to be. As for the coach, no one was going to be able to live up to the reign of Belichick….but this? This is worse than most “diehard” Patriots fans could imagine. Luckily for them, there’s always another team’s bandwagon waiting.
The one bright spot for New England is WR N’Keal Harry, who has proven he is capable of being the WR1, even if he doesn’t have a QB to get him the ball very often. This team will be hoping for a high draft spot and desperately needs to hit on their picks.
Bills- current record: 6-3 predicted finish: 12-4
The Bills have been outright dominant since Week 3, going 6-1 and racking up some very impressive victories along the way, topping it off this week with a decisive victory over the division rival Dolphins. Lead by Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, and Kent Rowe, Buffalo’s defense has been locking down offenses through the air and on the ground, giving up the 3rd fewest yards per game (231.7) and the 2nd fewest points per game (15.0).
The only weakness on the team may be QB Josh Allen, as he has thrown for only 173ypg (26th) and 9TDs (T-22nd). Although, that may just be a product of the large leads their defense has helped them jump out to more than a reflection of Allen himself. Regardless, barring a complete meltdown, this team looks primed to lock up the AFC East and possibly gun for the #1 seed in the entire AFC.
Jets- current record: 2-7 predicted finish: 3-13
M-E-S-S Mess! Mess! Mess!
Corny, but fitting for the state of this New York franchise. Mean old Brady and Belichick are finally gone, but the same old Jets stuck around. They somehow jumped out to a 14-0 lead against the Browns, shocking everybody, only to find a way to lose 21-17 in the end. The team has no quality QB, no true #1 WR, a very good, but ageing HB, and a putrid offensive line. The defense isn’t as bad, but it’s not much better. Should-be defensive cornerstones Jamal Adams, Leonard Williams, and Quinnen Williams are wasting away on what is, at best, a league average defense.
Unfortunately for them, the offense has so many holes to fill, it’s unlikely they get any help in the offseason on their side of the ball. The Jets need to go all out on offense by strengthening their line and finding a WR that can help Jamison Crowder by drawing attention away from him. Here’s to another year of rebuilding in New York.
Dolphins- current record: 6-3 predicted finish: 10-6
The Dolphins have had an up and down season. They’ve looked very good for the majority of their games, but can’t seem to string anything together for long. Not that it’s necessarily a bad thing, as parity is king in the NFL. Long streaks are hard to come by, and Miami did win three straight early in the year. The problem is Buffalo, who Miami just lost to, has been dominant these past 7 weeks. After the loss to the Bills, Miami has their lead of the division, and it feels like at this point, it’s Buffalo’s to lose.
That’s not to say all hope is lost. Miami still controls their own destiny, and you can bet they will be ready for the Bills in Week 14. Even if they aren’t able to win the East, Miami has a favorable schedule and will likely be in the running for a Wild Card berth thanks to their high scoring offense (29ppg, 5th in NFL) and above average defense (21ppg and 282.7ypg, 11th and 15th in NFL respectively)
AFC South
Texans- current record: 5-4 projected finish: 8-8
Look for the Texans to continue their back and forth season, as they seesaw their was to a balanced .500 record. The Texans are an above average team, but they haven’t been able to string together any consistency and the toughest part of their schedule is yet to come. As things heat up in the AFC South, the Texans will likely be left in the cold wondering what went wrong. (Hint: It’s not the offense, led by Watson, Hopkins, Jones, and Hunt)
If I were the Texans HC, I would be looking for a way to solidify my defensive backfield, possibly by using some of my offensive firepower as leverage in a trade. At any rate, the Texans have some great pieces on offense and defense to reload for next season, hopefully they have a plan to put it all together in a tough division like the AFC South.
Jaguars- current record: 4-4 projected finish: 8-8
I have the Jaguars finishing at 8-8, but honestly I wouldn’t be too shocked if they won the division the way they’ve looked the past two weeks. After a poor start to the season, the Jags have surprised everyone with back to back wins over the Bengals and Colts. They have leaned heavily on their defense, headlined by a fearsome db duo in Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye, allowing just 17pts in each of the last two games.
Which Jaguar team will show up next week against the Titans is anyone’s guess, but if they can keep the same energy they’ve had the past two weeks, Jacksonville could turn some heads and shake up an already extremely competitive AFC South.
Titans- current record: 5-3 projected finish: 10-6
I expect the decision to move on from Marcus Mariota to continue to haunt the Titans, as Mahomes can’t even come close to the talent provided by the Hawaiian Wonder.
That being said, the Titans are a resilient franchise, and with the likes of Jurrell Casey, Kevin Byard, Taylor Lewan, and AJ Brown, this team still has the skill to push for a playoff spot, and likely win the AFC South if they can knock of Indianapolis a second time. The Titans have fielded an above average, if not spectacular, offense and defense through the first half of the season, and the more time the team has to build their gameplan around Mahomes, the better they will become….even if they had a cheaper, better, cooler option all along.
RIP MM8.
Colts- current record: 5-3 projected finish: 11-5
Can you really blame Luck for wanting to get out of Indianapolis? The rumors are swirling that he may be on the chopping block, but it seems more likely that he’s demanding to be set free. His talents just aren’t being utilized by this organization and it’s very unlikely he gets a ring if he hangs around. The horrible scheme the HC runs has led to Luck throwing more INTs (10) than TDs (9), and Dalvin Cook being out carried by 5th rounder Nyheim Hines even though Cook has more YPC and is reaching the end zone at a much higher clip.
All that being said, the Colts do have one of the most talented rosters in the league, and even though they may not be using them to their full potential, they’ve been doing enough to get by and post a winning record half way through their season. With the upcoming slate being a little easier than the other teams in their division, the Colts should be able to squeeze out a division title, if they are able to beat the Titans Week 12. If they lose that game, they will still be vying for a wild card spot at season’s end.
AFC West
Chargers- current record: 1-8 projected finish: 5-11
Umm...anybody home?
The Chargers seem to think that the NFL season doesn’t start until November, as they failed to show up in any of their first 8 games. Unfortunately for Denver, when they did realize there was a football game they were supposed to be playing, they played extremely well. Firing on all cylinders for the first time all year, the Chargers put together a near perfect game. Turner threw for 292yds and 4tds, three of which were caught by Allen, and Gordon had 4.7ypc and a TD as well on the way to a 44-7 drubbing of the Broncos.
Unfortunately, even if the Chargers maintained that level of play for the rest of the season, the playoffs are out of reach. The best case scenario for them is winning enough games to satisfy their fans and the higher ups to retain their HC, and buying a calendar for the 2022 NFL Season.
Raiders- current record: 3-5 projected finish: 6-10
I’ll give the Raiders credit for one thing….the own the Chiefs. In the 6 games Oakland has played against teams not from Kansas City, they are 1-5. But when they see that red and white, it sets off a fire in their hearts that KC is no match for. Unfortunately, Oakland only gets to play the Chiefs twice a year, so the HC needs to find out a way to win consistently against the other 30 teams in the league. They have a few more winnable games on the schedule, but don’t expect them to go on any kind of miracle run here. They have shown they can play pretty good defense, but the offense is lethargic.
Aside from Antonio Brown, no one has made any type of substantial impact this year. Josh Jacobs has plenty of potential, and he hasn’t been bad by any means, but he’s going to have step up his game in the future if this team wants to compete in this division, and Carr needs to as well. Carr has done a good job of limiting INTs, but at the cost of being too conservative. If he can learn to balance risk/reward along with Jacobs becoming a more dependable option in the backfield, this team could do some damage in the future.
Broncos- current record: 2-7 projected finish: 4-12
Denver is in a difficult position. Their roster isn’t bad overall (other than the very offensive line) but the wins have eluded them. Their only wins on the year are against the 3-5 Raiders and the 1-8 Eagles. A lot of their issues start with the aforementioned o-line, but that doesn’t explain why the defense is giving up 31ppg (30th in the NFL). The HC needs to figure something out, and fast, or else the organization will bring in someone else who can. With weapons such as Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, Daesean Hamilton, and Noah Fant, the offense has the potential to be lethal.
On defense, though, Von Miller and Chris Harris aren’t getting any younger. Their window is coming to a close, and unfortunately for the Broncos it’s likely going to happen before they are able to field a competitive team. Denver has some big decisions to make regarding their ageing talent this offseason.
Chiefs- current record: 5-3 projected finish: 11-5
Kansas City has had an interesting path to 5-3. They’ve proven they can take on some of the best teams in the league with wins over Baltimore, Houston, and a complete decimation of Cleveland…..but they also lost twice to the Raiders that are 1-5 against the rest of the league.
Most of that has come down to the play of rookie QB Colby Craft who, after being benched early in the season for his poor performance, reclaimed his starting spot. Since then, he has led his team to four straight victories while throwing for 13TDs and only 1INT. With the team acquiring Derrius Guice to complement the budding star, and speedster Tyreek Hill as dangerous as ever, this offense is skilled enough to carry this team to a division crown.
And that’s even if they didn’t have a top 5 defense. KC’s pass rush has them leading the league in sacks per game, and the defensive backs have taken advantage of the quick pressure allowing only 174.6 passing ypg (2nd in the NFL). This team is primed to be one of the top seeds in the AFC this year, assuming the HC can keep his team playing their best regardless of the opponent.
Final Standings Based on Above Predictions:
1. Buffalo Bills 12-4 - AFC East Champions
2. Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 - AFC West Champions
3. Indianapolis Colts 11-5 - AFC South Champions
4. Cleveland Browns 11-5 - AFC North Champions
5. Tennessee Titans 10-6 - Wild Card 1
6. Baltimore Ravens 10-6 - Wild Card 2
7. Miami Dolphins 10-6
8. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
9. Houston Texans 8-8
10. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
11. Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
12. Oakland Raiders 6-10
13. Los Angeles Chargers 5-11
14. Denver Broncos 4-12
15. New England Patriots 4-12
16. New York Jets 3-13
Bonus Playoff Predictions:
WC Round:
Colts over Ravens
Browns over Titans
Divisional Round:
Bills over Browns
Chiefs over Colts
AFC Championship:
Bills over Chiefs