Drinking the Yaterade - Season 78 Predictions
by AST1N | 2 years ago | 0 Comments
Alright, alright, alright! Let’s get Season 78 underway!! I can’t wait for these Week 1 kickoff games to… wait, what? It’s week 12 already? That can’t be! Why am I in the hospital? And why does my head hurt… wait I’ve been in a coma for weeks??? Do I still have a job? Did my wife leave me yet? Has Tauph joined and quit again already? I am so confused! I don’t even know where to start!
I guess we can start at our S77 prediction recaps. I’ll look for my wife later.
You can’t spell “disappoint” without a little INT
Yes, we all know interceptions are running rampart right now. However, I truly believe we are going to see a direct correlation between team success and how well they took care of the ball in the air. While there will be games where your opponent is equally as bad at tossing the rock around as you are, it is not something you can rely on for 17 games. If you can’t take care of the ball, you will not make the playoffs. That being said, I think there will be 1 or fewer playoff teams who find their QB up on Regression Mountain. If you want to make the playoffs, here’s your blueprint (not that guy in Seattle).
Just to warn you now, this article might be full of me complaining that writing all this so much later in the season is going to be a pain in my ass. Like why did past-Field decide to torture future-Field into looking up how many INTs 14 QBs were going to have on the year? Ugh.
The “Under-25-INT-Club”: Herbert, Willis, Bridgewater, Mahomes, Watson, Prescott, Rodgers, Winston, Mayfield
The “Over-25-INT-Club”: Murray (31), L. Jackson (29), Brady (28), Allen (27), Cousins (26)
5 of the 18 QBs who went over made the playoffs, meaning 13 of the 18 teams in the league who didn’t make the playoffs went over on INTs, and that’s not even counting the teams like the Colts and Bengals who split their 25+ INTs with multiple starting QBs.
The fact still remains: those that throw picks are in for a bad time.
The NFC Darling
Before the cycle started, we had many conversations about who was going to run the NFC, and we saw three names pop up: Tampa Terry, Carolina Kelly, and San Frandy (nickname is trademark pending). I still believe Andy is in great shape. Terry took a sim loss in week one because he forgot to pay his utility bill, but I think he will recover and might be fine, even with a bad Week 2 loss. And then we have Kelly. I am going to betray my good friend and declare that Kelly will not make the Season 77 playoffs, even in a “weak” conference. There are two reasons for this:
- The roster isn’t great… yet. They are a very young team full of potential, but they must be developed. Also, they are all hurt.
- He can’t stop making terrible reads/throws. Baker Mayfield has 0 TDs and 6 INTs in his first 2 games. There is no way he will win enough games playing that way. If you look at Kelly’s history, throwing INTs has always been a part of his game, even when he was winning Super Bowls in Atlanta.
I do think a strength of Kelly is learning the game over time and making a splash later on. I think he will be fine in the long run and will still become a leader in the NFC, but not yet.
Andy is garbage. Tampa Ter figured it out and was fine. And this brings me back to Kelly. I still think he struggled. Yes, he made the playoffs, but he got the 7 seed on tie breakers, and only after going on a 5 game winning streak after starting the season 5-7. As I said, it would take him some time to get going, and after that 5-7 start, he is 14-2 in the regular season since then.
The NFC (L)east?
What a putrid division. Let’s break this down. The Giants will win 5 games. The Eagles will win 6. The Cowboys will surprise at 10 wins, and the Commanders will also shock the pre-season haters winning 9-10 games AND make the playoffs. Glenn looked to be an MVP front runner with Wentz in Week 1, and then threw 5 INTs with his two QBs in Week 2. If you look at the numbers at a whole, only 7 balls have hit the ground over those two weeks, if you remove the INTs. He will have games that he just finds the other team too many times and cost him the victory, but he is also finding his players A LOT. If he is not throwing INTs, he’s probably winning or right there (do you see a common trend?).
Giants won 4. Eagles won 5. Cowboys surprised at 14. And Commanders won 7. Outside of saying Glenn would sneak into the playoffs, I am not too upset about this one.
Running backs matter?
I will just say it, running is fun again. And I think others are finding that as well. That being said, I predict that we see at least 10 guys run for over 1,500 yards. And I am here for it.
I hate you past-Field. This isn’t easy to look up either. Players over 1,500: Walker, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Sanders.
1,500 was probably a bit too much of a reach, but we probably had 10-12 guys get over 1,250 and like 20 over 1k, so it was still a pretty good rushing year.
Son of a Beech
Denver currently has the #1 rush offense with their two headed monster Javonte and Melvin. They might have the best 1/2 option in the league, right there with Cleveland. The Broncos also have some serious weapons outside that aren’t even needed. It’s kind of a pick your poison with this team, and so far people want to get ran into the ground. Beech probably won’t make the playoffs, but I can easily see him going right around .500 or better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt around the 8 seed. It will be interesting to watch how he plays when guys stack the box and dare him to air it out.
Tied with the 8 seed, going 10-7. Now he’s checked out and 2-9. You hate to see it.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – QB Desmond Ridder, ATL
I think this will be a two player race because voters love QBs, with Ridder and Willis at the top. I prefer both the weapons and schedule in Atlanta, and I know TOFN will push for award wins, where JP will feel guilty about it. Kenneth Walker in Seattle and Alec Pierce will also be contenders, but fall short.
Ridder had a pretty good year, for the most part. Threw a few too many INTs, but still went 37/28 TD/INT and had a 94.8 QB rating. However, Willis really shined brighter than expected and Walker was ran into the ground, leaving Ridder to be forgotten.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, DET
With INT numbers high, I can see a rookie getting double digit INTs, but I think we are more likely to see good numbers from pass rushers than secondary players. David Ojabo has 4 sacks in 2 games and is a name to watch out for.
Hey look, a rookie got double digit INTs [MLB Troy Anderson (18)]. I’m not going to fret over not selecting a late 2nd round LB from Montana State. Hutchinson still ended up getting 14 sacks on the season, putting him top 10 for all players in sacks on the season.
Offensive Player of the Year – HB Jonathan Taylor, IND
Taylor has over 400 total yards and 4 TDs in two games and is the centerpiece of that offense. As long as he stays healthy, he should be a front runner.
What I did not anticipate was how putrid that Colts team would look as they played QB roulette. Once teams discovered you could stack 8 in the box and there was no pass threat, it was an early GG.
Defensive Player of the Year – CB Tre’Davious White, BUF
Stop throwing his direction. If you do, you will have a bad time. He is just too good and will shut down that side of the field.
I should stop looking at early flashes for my predictions. Tre had 3 INTs in the first week of the season, but then 5 more the rest of the 16 games. Plus, it’s going to take some effort for a CB to get the voter’s attention. I will do better.
Season 77 MVP – Jonathan Taylor, IND
I can’t trust any QBs right now. And when I default back to the HBs, I’ve got to go here based on overall usage.
Speaking of not trusting any QBs, I probably should have looked at his too.
Season 77 Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs 34, San Frandy 28
I hope Andy hits his funny bone really hard and does not find it humorous.
Alright, now that that’s done. I did speak with a nurse and she said my wife was here about a week ago with a lawyer and some paperwork, so I am sure everything is fine! I am sure it’s nothing to do with our marriage and probably just Tauph’s resignation papers. [Side note: I hear he just has them laminated and he uses a dry-erase marker to update the dates. I can’t confirm if it’s true at this time.]
Now on to Season 78. I know this might be cheating, being so late into the season, but I need this. This is all I have. I can’t lose this too.
Bye Eagles, Bye
Currently, the Eagles are rocking the league best record 11-0 and are cruising for a first round bye. My take here? They don’t make it to the NFC Championship. Sure, it would be a fun story. Rags to riches even. But can you honestly say you would put any stock into a Longville title run? Too risky for me.
Little Giants
The Giants started out the season 4-1, and things looked like a quick turnaround with Joe Allen at the head of the table. They now sit at 6-5 and with the 7th best record in the NFC. I think they lose 4 to 5 more games and get to watch the playoffs from home, and eliminate themselves from contention a lot earlier than they hope.
Switcharoo out West
Chargers sit at 10-1, tied for the 1 seed. The Chiefs are currently the 5 seed at 8-3. With 6 games left, I believe there is a very good chance they swap spots. The Chiefs have a much easier schedule (Pats, Commandos, Jags, Ravens, Chargers, Raiders) than the Chargers (Broncos, Bears, Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Cowboys). The Chiefs won the 1st match up between each other, so if the Chargers slip up one of those games, that week 17 game could be very important.
The Worst of the Worst
I have no idea who owns what picks right now, as it feels like no one owns their own pick anymore. Regardless, let’s play “These team’s picks will be the top 5!”
- Seattle Seahawks
- San Francisco 49ers
- Denver Broncos
- Los Angeles Rams
- New Orleans Saints
Offensive Rookie of the Year – QB Chase Shields, IND
Shields should win by a landslide. For all those QBs who were drafted to turn around their franchises, almost all have had a rough time in their rookie seasons. HB Dudley Spellman in HOU and WR Jaren Carter are having strong campaigns as well. I am very disappointed to not even see Justin Peerman in the top 5 receiving yards, but issues at QB have held this team back.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – LB Shaq Redmon, CLE
If the season ended today, this would be a close race. Redmon leads rookies in solo tackles and is top 5 in INTs. Seattle has a pair of DL at the top of the rookie sacks leaders (Middlebrooks 9, Elston 6) and the Colts LB Kyle Stephens leads INTs (7). However, Stephens is out a couple of weeks, which should give the others enough time to separate from him, and at that point I would lean towards Redmon.
Offensive Player of the Year – WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR
Cue the “Y-button is OP” conspiracy theorists. Marshall has been a jump ball master and leads the league in receiving yards, with a big proponent of his game being able to beat smaller CBs in 1-on-1 matchups. He has 13 TDs in 11 games, and is averaging 110 yards per game on a 24.2 YPC.
Defensive Player of the Year – MLB Eric Kendricks, MIN
If you find me a MLB who leads the league in INTs, I will show you a recipe for a DPOY. Not only do those turnovers look nice, but they will also have a shitload of tackles to boost their resume.
Season 78 Super Bowl – Los Angeles Chargers 31, Chicago Bears 16
Roc is 8-3. No one has said a thing. A sneaky, sneaky pick.
Alright, time to use the bedpan. I’ll see you all again sometime in the next 2-4 weeks (You may see me again on Tinder, that’s TBD. Where’s my GD wife?!?!).