Field's QB Success Analysis

Field Yates, Bleacher Report Analyst

I love stats. Nothing gets me harder than cold hard numbers that tell you a story. Some people say they love long walks on the beach... I tell people I like regression models. Words and women can lie to you... numbers cannot. Think about it. When you ask your bro to describe who he hooked up with over the weekend, he could either 1) go into details on her attributes (hair, skin, body, etc) like he was telling you what kind of Sim he was creating in the critically acclaimed video game "The Sims", leaving you to interpret how she looked, OR he could 2) tell you she's a 6/10.

Numbers don't lie.

That being said, today we are going to examine some correlation numbers and if they lead to team success. I think there is little argument that the quarterback position is by far the most important and valuable position on the football field. But the question to ask is how important and valuable is it to leading your team to a dub? We know coaching, execution, and defense are also very important, which is why our data won't show up as 100% tried and true formula. So that being said, let's look at the data we have thus far into the cycle, examining Winning % and QB OVR.

So there is a lot to take in when looking at this information. The dotted orange line is our trend line, and that R^2 isn't going to be 100% based on the other variables mentioned above. However, let's talk about what that trend line is telling us.

That line is saying at each intercept it crosses, that should be approximately what winning % / QB OVR on average you could expect, without the other variables.

If you had an 80 OVR QB, you could expect to be approximately a .500 team.

If you have an 85 OVR, that number jumps to .750, and so on.

That being said, how can we examine this on a per team basis, for all of you wanting to see how you stack up? Let's take a look the 49ers and Commanders, bot with a .500 record and 73 OVR QBs. We can examine this in two ways. With them having 73 OVR QBs, the chart would suggest they should only have about a .125 record, so they are over achieving with their QBs. The chart is also telling us that with their .500 record, their QB is playing at an 80 OVR's level.

In simpler terms, if you find yourself below the line, you are over achieving for your QBs level, and those above the line are under achieving. The Chiefs have the best QB in the game, but are losing 1/3 of their games. The Rams have Matthew Stafford (85) and should be winning 75% of their games, but find themselves at 16.7%, which is also why they are above the line.

As I stated a few times, this chart is not tried and true and stories can be told for why each team is where they are at. The Titans are finding success with Willis and his 71 rating, but that 71 rating is so misleading to his actual attributes that matter.

Either way, it's a fun diagram to look at and create stories from the data.