What Wins?
by RamTheChosenOne | 5 years ago | 1 Comments
What Wins?
Football philosophy and strategy should be the center of a sim football league’s discussions. Today, I took a cursory look at the last 20 real-life super bowl champions’ run game rank, pass game rank, and total defense rank to see if we could glean any meaningful strategic information or patterns that we could point to for explaining team success and winning the league’s ultimate prize.
It’s a Passing League
In today’s discourse, it has become increasingly stated and believed that the NFL is a “passing league”, that teams need a franchise passer in order to compete and that running games are a second thought. The list of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks for the last 20 years is mostly supportive of the franchise QB argument, but there are numerous aberrations and those so-called franchise QB’s have usually had some pretty decent help from the other units on winning teams. The average rank for Super Bowl winning passing games over the last 20 years checked in at 13.25. 6 teams out of the 20 ranked lower than 20 in passing game, 11 teams were outside of the top 10, and no team had the number 1 ranked passing game (2006 Colts were closest at #2). However, there is plenty to be said for the winners on the list who had bottom half run games and bottom half defenses and their ability to pass being important. The 2019 Chiefs (23rd ranked run game, 17th ranked defense), the 2011 Giants (32nd ranked run game, 27th ranked defense), and the 2006 Colts (18th ranked run game, 21st ranked defense) all bolstered top 5 passing attacks which seemed to have made up for their deficiencies in the other areas. But, take note, only 3 such teams are on the list. The other teams on the list with top 10 passing attacks (2018 Patriots, 2016 Patriots, 2014 Patriots, 2010 Packers, 2009 Saints, and the 2003 Patriots) also had either, a top 10 defense or a top 10 running game, the 2016 Patriots are the only Super Bowl Champ in the last 20 years to rank in the top 10 in all 3 categories. Further, looking at the correlation between the 20 teams’ passing ranks and their run games (-.356) and total defense (-.548), better passing attacks meant lower ranks in rushing offense and total defense.
Establish the Run
If you frequent football twitter, there’s a never-ending debate that passing is > running and that running backs don’t matter. So, we took a look at the last 20 Super Bowl Champs’ comparative ranks for rushing yardage and it may surprise you. Remember the average passing game rank from the last 20 champs was 13.25, well, the average run game rank checks in at 13.85. Also recall that 11 teams had a passing game worst than 10th, well, 11 teams had a run game worst than 10th. In total, there were no teams with a top 10 run game that also had a passing game and total defense rank that were outside of the top 10. All of the top 10 rushing teams had either, a top 10 defense or a top 10 passing attack. That statistic supports the “carry the team” narrative usually required of franchise-QB’s, but it also says that teams that run well are typically more balanced. To further that argument, we averaged the rank for each of the teams across the 3 categories, the 5 best teams (17 Eagles, 16, Patriots, 04 Patriots, 00 Ravens, 13 Seahawks) all had top 10 run games and defenses. Further, the correlation for the 20 teams on the list, between run rank and defense rank (.132) supports that a good run game increases the likelihood of having a good defense.
Defense Wins Championships
If one cliché rang true throughout the course of this analysis, it is that “defense wins championships.” In the last 20 years, neither the number 1 passing offense nor number 1 rushing offense has won the Super Bowl. However, over that same span, the number 1 defense has won 5 times (15 Broncos, 13 Seahawks, 08 Steelers, 02 Bucs, 00 Ravens). Further, the average total defense rank of the 20 teams on the list is 10.7, remember the average run and pass games ranked between 13-14.
Closing
Overall, I think the analysis tells us that teams have to be elite in at least one area. There are only 2 teams (01 Patriots and 12 Ravens) who did not rank top 10 in any of the measured categories. The stats also tell us that if you choose to be an elite run game, that it may help your defense. They also say that if you have sub-par rushing offense and sub-par defense, you should put all your eggs in the franchise-QB basket and find a way to be an elite passing attack. Looking forward to how you all build your teams next cycle and lets talk some ball!