Red Zone Trade Value - Part One

by adelfish | 7 years ago | 0 Comments

Red Zone Trade Value - Part One

 

Borrowing an idea from one of my favorite writers of all time, I decided to take a deep dive into the state of the league, and what players are the most valuable. There are a few ways to value a player, and they can happen in a few ways..

 

1. - Homerism. Homerism is the disease that all coaches and owners have, that thing that makes you attached to a player regardless of his ability on the field. Maybe it’s because you drafted him in the first round and you’ve spent the majority of the past three seasons praying to the higher ups before bedtime that he will figure it out. Maybe it’s because of all his jersey sales after he blew up the preseason, and he has found himself an afterthought when the games count. Maybe he had that one big game that everyone around the watercooler talks about still at work - ‘Remember when Ryan Fitzpatrick came in and closed out those few games for us?? Remember that??’. Or maybe you’re just a fan, and that can skew your opinion so drastically that Deric Little starts to look a bit like Bronson Wagner when you really squint your eyes.

 

2. - On field impact. This is the obvious one, what do you do for ME on the field? Do you make a defense lose sleep at night wondering how they are going to slow you down? Do you have your name called by the referee during the game? Do you stick to the plan even when the score says 21-0? That’s what value a player can show when they step between the hash marks. On field impact is important for a lot of ways, but maybe the most important part of this is how the other team is impacted by you. When Von Miller lines up against your rookie left tackle and you leave him without help, does that cross your mind before the ball is snapped? Does any Bills cornerback ever wonder why they never have safety help behind him when Jatavius Knox is running downfield? Impact on the field can come in many ways

 

3. - Value to others. How desirable is your player? Does the phone ring every offseason and opposing general managers are asking how the locker room is, and if they would need to part with any big personalities? At the combine do you have to push away opposing front office guys who keep asking ‘Would you ever move Player X?’. If you nodded your head in agreement to any of this regarding a certain piece of your football puzzle, their value to other is immense. The one problem with this part of the trade value formula, is that the value to others may never exceed the value that player brings to you, which made me pose this question when I thought of the idea to put pen to paper….

 

How valuable are players in the league? Who is untouchable? Who would be moved for the right price? That’s what I aim to figure out today.

 

GROUP M - The Lowball Group

 

45. Pierce Bradford (LT - Jets)

5th round guy who has been in the league for half a decade, and has been the focal point of the road-grading offense that the Jets rode to a championship, and a guy Jordan Howard has invested 5 postseason gifts to, including a snowmobile and a Disney cruise for Bradford and his family. How did this guy fall to the 5th round? Probably because he was touted as the weakest offensive lineman to refuse to switch to guard in the class. He has been integral to the Jets despite all his shortcomings, and makes probably $3 million less than his value.

 

44. Brandin Cooks (WR - Patriots)

Brandin Cooks has been without a playoff appearance his entire career until last year, when the Patriots shocked the Red Zone world and moved on to the divisional round before falling. Cooks was fantastic in Season 36, scoring 13 touchdowns, but has only scored 21 total touchdowns since in 7 seasons combined. His production drops and fluctuates year in and year out, and one has to wonder if the Patriots missed their window to capitalize on this guy.

 

43. Tucker Martin (QB - Saints)

Tucker Martin showed us early in his career that he was worth the 6th overall pick in the 1st round, posting a 4000 yard, 21 touchdown and 19 interception season. After this season, in 6 complete seasons he has never thrown more touchdowns than interceptions - in fact he has thrown 101 touchdowns (about 17 per year) and 139 interceptions (23 per year) since that impressive rookie year. Perfect example of value to the Saints being higher than the league, and apparently this front office intends to prove they were right about selecting him.

 

42. Miles Rachal (QB - Raiders)

See #43, Martin, Tucker. Rinse, repeat. How quickly we forget that an offensive rookie of the year AND rookie of the year can fall from grace this quickly. Yes, his touchdowns to interceptions ratio is better than Martin’s, but not by much. 78 touchdowns to 71 interceptions since that brilliant 33 TD 9 INT campaign his rookie season is nothing short of 1/1. Rachal shows signs of brilliance, but are you hitching your wagon to a glorified 1/1 guy? I wouldn’t, but the Raiders value him higher than anyone else in the league - they’ve seen him at practice, they remember that wonderful rookie season that ended with a playoff berth. Remember the rules of value, Rachal checks almost all the boxes.

 

41. Michael Thomas (WR - Broncos)

Let me start this off with saying Michael Thomas, bless his heart, is making 23 million dollars to play football in the last season of his contract. We are happy for Michael Thomas, he can feed his family (and other families) for decades to come, but his Denver career hasn’t shown him much football success when it’s all said and done. Denver has won the best of the lousiest, lousiest of the best division (AFC West) numerous times, but taking the next step against better competition has eluded them. As Denver ages and finally frees this abomination of a contract from their payroll, maybe they find a way to capitalize on it finally? Who says no to a Michael Thomas for a 4th round pick trade? Well, maybe Denver. This is the team that gave him this contract after all.

 

GROUP L - Get Em’ While They’re Hot!

 

40. Leonard Fournette (RB - Jaguars)

It’s not often we see commitment to a running back like the Jaguars have shown to the former 4th overall pick in Fournette, and it’s even less often that we see that commitment result in late career blossoming. Fournette has posted the two best seasons of his career back to back, in years 7 and 8 of his Jaguars run, and has been arguably their most important player offensively. This has resulted in postseason disappointment and failure ultimately, and one has to wonder how much value a running back this late in his career has? Teams talk themselves into ‘one piece away’ constantly, and this is the harbinger for some of the greatest one-sided trades in Red Zone history. Why does it seem like Fournette is going to be involved in the next one?

 

39. DeShone Kizer (QB - Dolphins)

Yes I’m surprised about this too, when I think about the 45 most important trade assets or players in Red Zone, I’d probably think of Todd Heap coming out of retirement before DeShone Kizer crosses my mind, but alas, here we are. Kizer has been a trooper his career, traded to Miami to sit behind Aaron Rodgers (despite showing above-average competence), then thrust back into the starting role once Rodgers retired. After two campaigns of success, including leading a 14-2 Dolphins team, Kizer is suddenly now battling a first round quarterback (Metcalf). I’m not sure that there are 10 teams in the league with a better option than Kizer - will someone just tell this guy they appreciate him already?

 

38. Robert Nkemdiche (DE - Cardinals)

When you think of the best pass rushers in the league, your mind jumps to guys like Francis Bedell, Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas….then there’s Mr. Consistent in Robert Nkemdiche. He has little playoff success, but has enjoyed plenty of regular season success. The Cardinals seem to be in transition offensively, and parting with the face of their defense for a haul would make sense. But can you really convince yourself that trading a guy with 34 sacks in the last two seasons at age 28 and 29 is the right thing to do?

 

GROUP K - ‘I’m Hanging Up, But Meet Me at the Coffee Shop on 3rd Street’

 

37. Nash Zelenka (QB - Titans)

Tennessee struck gold with this pick, Zelenka has been a top 10-12 quarterback for his whole career, posting a 5000 yard season, and 6 straight 4000 yard seasons to boot. Tennessee does suddenly find themselves third in a three team AFC South race, as the Jaguars have ascended to near dominance, and the Colts are everyone’s favorite to (finally) make a run. The Titans seem to be stuck, and would the right offer truly move the meter on a Zelenka trade? Can they do this to their beloved fan base? Maybe a couple first round picks would change their mind.

 

36. Audre Hamilton (WR - Redskins)

The Redskins have shown that this offensive aerial assault seems to be personnel-proof, meaning that they have one of the best plug-and-play systems in the league. Is Audre Hamilton the Matt Damon in ‘The Departed’ and Rashawn Brockers is Leo (in which we could never recast this duo) or is Audre Hamilton more of a Luke Wilson to Rashawn Brockers’ Will Ferrell in ‘Old School’, in which I left myself wondering ‘I wonder if this movie would be better if anyone else was playing Luke Wilson’s character.’

 

35. Daryon Poyer (WR - Seahawks)

One of the most dynamic guys in the league, and has posted back to back 1000 yard seasons since stepping into a starting role in this high-octane attack. Seattle has tried to replicate Washington, in that ‘we can chuck the pigskin downfield with whoever we suit up.’ Poyer is an elite talent, and could be the next Davonte Tribble if done the right way, but what happens when the front office guys from Seattle come to grips with the fact ‘hey, maybe our defense DOES stink!’ Once Seattle finds out that their division is too good to be a one trick pony, it could be too late. Poyer is the prize of this franchise right now (besides Layow), but sometimes closing your eyes and saying ‘Yes’ is the best thing to do.