Season 40 Preview - North/East

I'm going to go through each division and make predictions based on advanced stats (Pythagorean Win Expectancy anyone?), off-season moves, subjective biased opinions, and random guesses. This is only fun if you berate me for all the stupid things I got wrong and tell everyone who is really going to be the best/worst, most improved, biggest disappointment, etc. So head over the main chat and share your thoughts as soon as you hit the bottom of the article. You can find the rest of the divisions in my previous article.

AFC North

The Ravens are stacked. Call me biased, but they objectively have the best roster in RedZone and an average age of just 24.9 for the starters. The Ravens had the best Pythagorean Win Expectancy last season and while the schedule gets a bit more difficult, it’s still only about league average. Ravens have a tough opening to the season and will be implementing a new offense, so it’ll be interesting to see how that affects the season.

The Steelers have the 9th hardest schedule in RedZone this season by opponent adjusted strength of schedule, and the hardest in the AFC North. They were a bit lucky last season, outperforming their win expectancy by a game. The signing of Cam Robinson will give the offensive line a boon. I expect the run defense to be stellar as always, but their success will largely depend on if Joshua Dobbs will ever make the leap to top notch NFL QB. They’ll need him to be higher than his 14th in ANY/A, to have similar success to last season.

The Browns may have finally gotten their QB with first round pick Hunter Snyder. I fully expect him to be better than any QB the Browns have had under this regime. However, it is going to be tough year for the Browns. They were lucky to win 8 games last season and they come in with the 5th largest increase in schedule difficulty from last season. Between rookie growing pains for Snyder and the increase in competition, I think the Browns take a step back.

I’m picking the Bengals to show marked improvement this season despite being in the top 10 for largest increase in schedule difficulty. The Bengals were one of the unluckiest teams last season, with a win expectancy of a 4-5 win team. Nagy had his best season and is approaching above average territory for ANY/A. The Bengals struggle with player development, but if they can just eke out a few close victories, things may finally start to turn around.

Ravens 13-3
Steelers 10-6
Browns 6-10
Bengals 5-11

NFC North

The Vikings finished second in Pythagorean Win Expectancy last season and were 1 second away from a Super Bowl victory. The team is still intact and now has a full season of Christian McCaffery in that offense. The Vikings come into season 40 with the 2nd hardest schedule based on opponent adjusted strength of schedule. They lost a few players on the offensive line as they prepared for several players in need of new contract next season and they traded away all their draft picks from this most recent draft – they do have a plethora of picks in the coming draft. The Vikings will still win the North and be in the hunt for another Super Bowl run, but with the increase in schedule difficulty and staying pat roster wise, they won’t be quite as good this season.

The Lions also have a very difficult schedule, but unlike the Vikings, they had a very easy schedule last season. In fact, the Lions have the largest increase in schedule difficulty in the entire league this season. I’m interested to see how Matthew Stafford fits with this team, as many of the impact players are here as a result of him being traded away. They have a talented young offensive line, dynamic weapons in the pass and run game, and a dominate defensive front. Still, the secondary is a question mark and I don’t see a bell cow back on the team. The Bortles/Stafford combo is a gamble that may not pay off. I’m betting on things getting rocky.

Mitchell Trubisky was 29th out of 34 qualifying QB’s in ANY/A for the Bear last season. He’ll have his best weapons to date with the additions of Demaryius Thomas and D'Onta Foreman. I’m skeptical if it will make a difference for the disappointing QB, but now is his best shot to make something of his career. The Bears have some quality players across the roster with Keith Banks, Leonard Floyd, and a pair of stud interior offensive lineman. But they still have holes at every level of the defense. The schedule gets a bit harder this year and they came out as the 3rd most lucky team last season, winning 2 more games than their scoring margin suggested. I think the luck regresses and Trubisky proves once and for all that he isn’t cut out to be a starting QB in RedZone.

The Packers were unlucky to only win 3 games last season, having a top 10 most difficult schedule last year and still having a scoring margin a full game better than their record. Still, after trading away future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, it seems the Packers are all in on Houston Archambeau. This is not a good thing. Houston was 34th out 34 qualifying QB’s in ANY/Y last season and had a TD% of 2.2 and an INT% of 5.6, both ranking bottom 5. They have an offensive line that may just be the worst in football, with just one above average starter, and 3 replacement level players starting. I hope I’m wrong about Archambeau because it will be another slog for Green Bay otherwise.

Vikings 11-5
Lions 9-7
Bears 5-11
Packers 3-13

AFC East

The Jets had a murderous schedule last season and still managed to win 13 games, even if they had a Pythagorean Win Expectancy closer to an 11-win team. The schedule gest easier this season, but still the toughest in the division. Howard and Hillman will still be the catalysts behind an ultra-efficient offense, and Jamal Adams will lead arguably the best secondary in RedZone. I’ll be interested to see how they incorporate rookie running back Marquise Rouse. I have the Jets taking a step back with a little less luck and improvement from the rest of the AFC East.

The Dolphins surprised last year with 10 wins and nearly knocked off the eventual Super Bowl Champions but couldn’t hold onto a double digit 4th quarter lead. After losing Suh, I’m skeptical this defensive line can anchor the defense. Snacks Harrison is a solid nose tackle, but he’s on the downswing at this point in his career. The Dolphins are another team that had a very difficult schedule last season and will see it ease up. They were unlucky to win less than 11 games last season and upgraded from Andy Dalton to Aaron Rodgers. They drafted Ross Whitted in the 1st round and he looks to be a day one difference maker for the offense. With 10 other rookies also on the active roster, I think the Dolphins success can be sustained going forward.

The Bills had a down year last season and went all in this off-season to get back on track. They traded for Luke Kuechly and Trey Waynes, in addition to signing Keenan Allen, Jimmy Graham, Trey Jackson, and Gerold McKoy. The team looks stacked on paper and their coach has a history of success with veteran teams. Unlike the Dolphins, this model probably isn’t sustainable. For this year though, the Bills should be contenders in the AFC.

I am excited to see the AFC East this season. This is what we were all hoping for when these owners took over and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them win the division or represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. With the exception of the Patriots, that is. I am so disappointed the Pats didn’t address the QB position this off-season. Bradford has a Chad Pennington level arm at this stage of his career and these two fantastic receivers are being wasted away. I don’t think people realize how good Davante Tracy is and could be. With his size, speed, skill, and athleticism, he should be the best receiver in the league. The Pats filled some roster holes during the off-season, they were unlucky last year, and the schedule gets easier. But with the rest of the AFC East improving and the QB position getting worse due to regression, I don’t see the Pats finishing better than last season.

Jets 12-4
Dolphins 11-5
Bills 11-5
Patriots 5-11

NFC East

This seems weird to say for a team that won 11 games and gave the NFC Champions everything they could handle in the divisional round of the playoffs, but I think the Eagles will be back this season. Only the Cowboys see their schedule get easier than the Eagles. In fact, the Eagles have a top 5 easiest schedule. They were a bit lucky to win 11 games with a win expectancy of 10.3, but they have routinely been one of, if not the best in close game situations. While they only addressed the receiver situation with a band-aid, trading for 32 year old Dez Bryant, they should be better in that area this year. 2nd round rookie wide-out Anthony Farley looks like he will be a major project and could be years away from contributing. I fully expect them to be right back in this spot next off-season looking for a wide-out.

Getting Mariota has many suggesting the Giants are ready to take the leap in the NFC East and finally make that elusive Super Bowl run. I don’t see it. Mariota was 21st in ANY/A last season and Webb was 30th. Both the Broncos and Titans were eager to get rid of him and they both have looked better with new signal-callers. The Giants were the second most lucky team last season, winning 2 more games than their Pythagorean Win Expectancy. They also had the 4th easiest schedule last season and they are the only team in the NFC East to not see their schedule difficulty decrease. The secondary is still stellar and they boasted the number 1 overall defense last season. I think they fall off a bit with declining talent in the front seven and the additions of Mariota and Mixon aren’t enough to propel this offense to overcome it. With a little less luck and the rest of the NFC East getting better, I think the Giants miss the playoffs for the first time with this group.

The Redskins offense is explosive. Brockers and Hamilton are deadly on the outside with speed and skill. If Ajayi can stay on the field and avoid suspensions, the run game is very formidable. The big question will be if the defense can stop anyone. At all 3 levels their players are mostly either old or raw, with not many blue-chip players in their primes. The Redskins were unlucky last year and come in with a much easier schedule, good for 3rd biggest drop in difficulty. If the offense takes off, a few young defenders develop, and they play to win – not always a guarantee with this staff – they may make run at a playoff spot for the first time in a few seasons. Regardless, there is enough here to show improvement over last season.

What did the Cowboy do coming off a 2 win season? They downgraded from La’el Collins to Joshua Garnett and drafted rookie receiver Svondo Nimmo. The Cowboys will see the biggest decline in schedule difficulty this season. For a team that rivals Texans, Bengals, and Broncos in least amount of talent, I don’t see them benefitting other than squeaking out another win or two.

Eagles 12-4
Giants 9-7
Redskins 6-10
Cowboys 3-13