Season 40 Preview - West/South

I'm going to go through each division and make predictions based on advanced stats (Pythagorean Win Expectancy anyone?), off-season moves, subjective biased opinions, and random guesses. This is only fun if you berate me for all the stupid things I got wrong and tell everyone who is really going to be the best/worst, most improved, biggest disappointment, etc. So, head over the main chat and share your thoughts as soon as you hit the bottom of the article. Stay tuned for the other 4 divisions.

AFC West

The Chargers were the unluckiest team last season, underperforming their win total by 2 full time games. The schedule gets a bit easier this year and they made some solid moves this off-season. Andy Dalton will be much better than RGIII if called upon and Will Barrow should be a day one difference maker.

The Chiefs were one of the luckiest teams last year, with a win expectancy of an 8-win team. The schedule eases up a bit this season, but the whole AFC West gets a schedule reprieve too. While Javonte Redmond will be a nice replacement for Hunt and second year wideout Hambrick looks ready to breakout, I don't think this defense has done enough to stave off the Charger in the AFC West.

The Raiders made some splashy moves in the off-season and look to have one of the best offenses in the league, save for one position... The quarterback. It looks as though they finally got their guy in the second round with Miles Rachal from Boise State. But he is very raw and may take a season or two to be the player they need him to be. If they had gotten a more ready-now QB, I would be tempted to predict the Raiders as a surprise playoff team. As the Ravens showed us last year, sometimes a raw QB can put it all together in a very short amount of time, so there is still hope. The Raiders were unlucky last year with just 4 wins and I think they can leap frog the Chargers

The Broncos look to be in rebuilding mode after trading away Von Miller for two picks. By the way, how do you not get a 1st for Von Miller. I get that he is on the downswing, but he could single handily win a championship for a team on the verge... Like the Buccaneers. The Broncos actually had a worse scoring margin than the Chargers last season, despite winning two more games.

Chargers 10-6
Chiefs 9-7
Raiders 7-9
Broncos 4-12

NFC West

49ers in a landslide. Too easy. Now the AFC South... Wait, you wanted nuance to this? Okay, lets dig in.

The 49ers had the hardest schedule in season 39 based on adjusted strength of schedule. They also had the 3rd unluckiest season (their scoring margin suggest they should have won 10-11 games. Let's not forget a sim loss to the Cowboys for good measure. While they still have a relatively hard schedule, it was the 4th largest decline in schedule difficulty from the previous season. The addition of Shaq Thompson, as crippling as the contract will be in the future, should help improve the #5 overall defense.

On the flip side, the Rams only win on gimmicky special teams, err, the Rams were slightly unlucky but have a harder schedule this season. The o-line is still suspect, the receiving corps has been turned over, and the pass rush isn't getting any better with the loss of Justin Houston. Another season missing the playoffs for the Rams.

The Cardinals were the 7th luckiest team last year and have the 8th largest increase in schedule difficulty this season. While they added a few pieces on the line and Cameron Meredith, they had an underwhelming draft. I don't see a repeat for the season 39 Cinderella story.

Seahawks are still the Seahawks. The schedule does get easier this year, but they were lucky to win 3 games last season. This team has gotten worse each season and I don't expect a dramatic turn around.

49ers 12-4
Rams 9-7
Cardinals 8-8
Seahawks 5-11

AFC South

All the advance stats point to the Jaguars taking control of the division. They were slightly unlucky, finally got a QB, and the Titans schedule is much harder this season. But I just have a feeling that Luck will continue his MVP type season into this year and the Colts will win the division despite being one of the luckiest (pun intended) teams last season. Maybe it pays to have a horseshoe as your logo?

I have the Jags finishing just behind them and in wildcard contention. The Jaguars had the best Pythagorean Win Expectancy in the division least season, but finished third due to the Titans and Colts outplaying their scoring margin. With rookie QB Damon Stamer, the additions of Suh and Josh Norman, they'll be much steadier this season.

I have the Titans taking a step back due to the schedule difficulty increase and being very lucky last season. They were the 4th luckiest team, right in front of the Colts, and have the 3rd largest increase in schedule difficulty. They drafted a FB in the 3rd round and picked up raw talent Jawaun Hudson in the first. This is always one of the closest divisions and I have the Titans being the odd man out this year.

The Texans won 4 games last season and had a win expectancy of a 4-5 win team. Their schedule is about the same this season and the division is clearly a tier above them right now. Drafting stud safety Whitney was a great move, but they'll need a bunch more of those to seriously compete anytime soon.

Colts 11-5
Jaguars 10-6
Titans 8-8
Texans 4-12

NFC South

This should be a fun division. The Buccaneers made huge moves to get Von Miller and Jurrel Casey. Cornerback T.J. Collins looks to be a horrendous first round pick and will likely be inactive on game days until he can learn to cover anyone. But they still have Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Kenneth Dixon had his best season as a pro and I'd expect the run game to be an even bigger factor with the additions on defense. The schedule does get tougher this year and they played exactly to their win expectancy last season. They'll have the Saints and Panthers trying to chase them down, but I think they finish a top another close division race in the NFC South.

I have the Panthers and Saints in a dead heat. They both were unlucky last year, and both see their schedules easy up a bit this season. The Panthers were better last year, but the Saints had a rare solid off-season. Solder will help the line tremendously and Shazier will lift up the whole defense. The Panthers meanwhile, have arguably the best line in football to go with their young core of backs and receivers. Travis Kelce will add another dimension to the offense that aging Olson couldn't last year.

Falcons will take a step back from a great season last year. It's brutal to miss the playoffs at 10-6, but it won't get any better this year. We all know that Matt Ryan is on the backside of his career and the loss of Julio will hurt. The Falcons will see their schedule difficulty increase the 2nd most in the entire league. When you combine that with them being the luckiest team in the league, outperforming their win expectancy by nearly 3 games, it will be tough to replicate a 10-6 year. None the less, it was nice to see Jim be on the lucky side of Pythagorean Win Expectancy as he holds the record for unluckiest season I've ever recorded and routinely fell short of what his scoring margin suggested he could win.

Buccaneers 11-5
Panthers 9-7
Saints 9-7
Falcons 6-10