Season 38 QB Roundup

Let's take a look at some QB storylines shaping up in the final weeks of the season. Today we will discuss MVP, rookies QB's, surprises and disappointments. But first, here is a refresher on some of the stats you find below:

% = pass completion percent
YPA = yards per attempt, commonly referred to as passing average
Rate = passer rating, commonly referred to as QB rating
Sack% = Percentage of drops backs (excluding scrambles) that end in a sack
ANY/A = Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt. This is an expanded version of YPA, adding a modifier for touchdowns and interceptions, while subtracting out lost yards due to sacks from passing yards. Overtime, this metric has correlated the most closely with winning and the "eye test".
AY/A = Adjusted Yards per pass Attempt. The same as ANY/A except without adjusting for lost yards due to sacks. While sacks can often be attributed to offensive line play, the best QB's get the ball out regardless.
TD% = Percent of drop backs ending in a passing touchdown
INT% = Percent of drop backs ending in an interception
Ratio = touchdown to interception ratio. In other words, the number of touchdowns thrown for every interception

Rookie Quarterbacks

Five rookie quarterbacks have taken the reigns for their teams. The Bengals Matthew Nagy, the Chargers Jorian Holmes, the 49ers Jack Paulsen, the Titans Nash Zelenka, and the Panthers Mike McClure.

Impressively, all but the Bengals currently have a winning record. It is entirely possible we end up with 25% of playoff teams running out a rookie at the most important position. This bodes well for the future of the position in RedZone.

Two of the four, Paulsen and Zelenka, have posted a 97+ passer ratings. Zelenka has posted the biggest raw numbers, already with more than 4500 yards, but Paulsen has been more efficient with a 7.09 ANY/A and a top 10 TD%.

Nagy has struggle mightily for the 0-14 Bengals, ranking 32 out of 34 qualifying QB's in ANY/A. McClure missed some time with injuries. Jorian Holmes has dazzled with a few comeback victories, but struggled in other campaigns. It will be interesting to see if voters award a rookie QB leading his respective team to the playoffs for ORoY, over the receivers putting up monster numbers for non-playoff teams.

Surprise Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes has been phenomenal in his 3rd year for the Chiefs. He leads the league in passing yards and has an impressive 7.6% sack percent. If he can cut down on the turnovers, he'll be in the MVP conversation for years to come.

Jameis Winston has been great under this regime in Tampa. But this year has been a huge leap forward. His rock bottom interception percent and league leading touchdowns have put 50% higher than the next closest QB in TD/INT ratio.

Stafford being able to avoid sacks and interceptions (typically inversely correlated) has been the most impressive part of his stellar season. He is 1st in sack% and 4th in int%. The only reason Stafford is just below Mariota and Winston in ANY/A is the lower YPA.

The combination of Mariota and Lynch have been outstanding this season for the Broncos. Each rates in the top 3 for ANY/A and top 5 in TD/INT ratio. Once the Broncos are able to stabilize their aging defense, the offense should have no problem leading them to the playoffs in seasons to come.

Disappointing Quarterbacks

We know Joe Flacco gets sacked a lot. But losing yards on a whopping 15.7% of passing plays is nuts. It's one of the reasons Flacco hasn't followed up his MVP campaign with comparable numbers. He is just 11th in ANY/A and 7th in TD/INT ratio, both of which were top 5 last season.

Deshaun Watson had a very respectable year last year, arguably the best of coach Eddie's career for a QB. He has been dreadful this season. He is literally in the bottom third of every statistically metric I track. With a 4.12 ANY/A, the Texans would be better off running it every single play with Lamar Miller.

MVP

While Matthew Stafford has had an excellent season for a resurgent Jaguars team, Jameis Winston has been head and shoulders above the rest of the league in my mind. Jameis is top 10 in yards and completions while hosting the best TD%, INT%, TD/INT ratio, passer rating, and completion%. He is second in ANY/A, TD passes, and fewest interceptions, while leading the Buccaneers to the two seed in the NFC as of today.

If Jameis can keep up his play over the final two weeks and lock up a first round bye, I don't see anyone beating him out for Most Valuable Player.