RZ 37 - Overrated, Underrated, Properly Rated – NFC

New York Jets (12-2)

Overrated

The Jets have been the luckiest team in the league this season, outperforming their Pythagorean Win Expectancy by 2.9 games (that's before they won another nail biter against the Jags). Oddly, by yards per game, they are a good offensive team but poor on defense, but by points per game it is the exact opposite. The Jets are good, but not this good.

Baltimore Ravens (11-3)

Overrated

While the Ravens haven't been lucky, they have had the league’s 3rd easiest schedule. They have just two wins against teams with a winning record all season -- they're 2-3 in such games. I think the lack of a rushing will end up hurting them in the playoffs. The real question is there another team in the AFC to leap over this flawed team.

Indianapolis Colts (10-3)

Underrated

The Colts have been lights out on defense all season (3rd in points, 2nd in yards). On offense they're impossible to judge because Luck missed such a large chunk of the season. When he has played, only Teddy Bridgewater and Carson Wentz have been better by ANY/A. The Colts are a close second behind the Ravens for best scoring margin in the AFC, but have played a vastly more difficult schedule. With two tough games remaining for the Ravens, I see the Colts grabbing a first round bye.

Buffalo Bills (9-4)

Properly Rated

By Pythagorean Win Expectancy, the Bills are lucky. However, I've been doing this long enough to know that Moji always outperforms his scoring margin. The Bills have been very good on defense, but haven't done enough on offense to push them to a top team in the AFC. I'll never count out Moji come playoff time, but this doesn't seem to be his year.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-5)

Underrated

The Chargers have quality wins over the Ravens and 49ers, but struggled against the Colts and Rams. Still, this team is better than the 11-5 playoff team last year, even if they don't get to the same win total. Rivers was having a career resurgence before the injury. They have a very good pass defense and rely on a balanced offensive attack. They'll likely have a tough opening round opponent in the Bills, but I like their chances.

Pittsburg Steelers (9-5)

Properly Rated

The Steelers have had the toughest schedule in the division and still sit in the driver seat for the final wildcard spot. With the Ravens still having the Browns and Bills to play, a division title is a remote possibility. They're a bit lucky by scoring margin, but boast one of the most dynamic offenses in RedZone (3rd in points, 1st in yards). Ravens/Steelers would be a stellar opening round matchup. It's no secret what the Steelers think about the Ravens.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)

Overrated

If this team were still on Auto-Pilot, they would be underrated. But alas, Nick is back at the helm and has them pointed squarely away from the playoffs. Stafford has been better this season, but still only 14th in ANY/A. Not enough to give up the haul they did. Losing 2 of the last 3 and facing off against the Colts this week, the Jags do not look good for a playoff spot.

Cleveland Browns (7-6)

Properly Rated

This team is loaded with young talent and sure seems to be on the right trajectory. Even so, the offense is one dimensional and the defensive talent hasn't translated to stopping the other teams' pass game. Until they get a franchise QB, I think the Browns will be on the outside looking it when it comes to the playoffs.