Season 34 AFC Playoff Picture

Bengals – Properly Rated

The Bengals have locked up the 1st seed in the AFC.

This team has looked like the only legitimate Super Bowl contender in the AFC. They are second in Pythagorean Win Expectancy, 2nd in points allowed, 2nd in yards allowed, 2nd in yards gained and 1st in points scored. This team is every bit as dangerous as their stellar 14-1 record indicates.

Chiefs – Overrated

The Chiefs lock up the 2nd seed, and a first round bye, with either a win over the Cardinals or a loss by the Jets against the Bengals -- thanks to having a better record against common opponents than the Jets. Otherwise they will be the 3rd seed.

The Chiefs do one thing really, really well. They are ranked #3 at stopping the run. Outside of that, they are an above average team that took advantage of an easy schedule and a down year in the AFC West.

Two seasons after making an improbable run to the AFC Championship game, it’s nice to see the Chiefs back in the thick of the AFC playoffs. Still, I do not see them making it past the second round.

Jets – Properly Rated

The have won the AFC East for the 7th straight season thanks to a late season collapse from the Bills. The Jets will be the 2nd seed if they beat the Bengals and the Chiefs lose to the Cardinals in week 17. Otherwise they will be the 3rd seed.

The Jets are an enigma. On the one hand, they are ranked 22nd in yards gained, Cam Newton has been very mediocre, and they have just one win against a team that will make the playoffs. On the other hand, they are 3rd in yards allowed, own the second best record in the AFC, and all 4 losses have come against playoff teams.

The Jets have not lost more than 4 games during the regular season since season 29. They routinely rate lower in Pythagorean Win Expectancy, likely indicating that they tend to play down to their competition, while thriving in close games. The defending Super Bowl champs are somewhat flying under the radar, but have some cracks showing at the same time.

Jaguars – Underrated

The Jags had the AFC South locked up a few weeks ago despite being a .500 team for most of the season. This is because the AFC South had an historically bad season.

With that said, the Jags are a bit better than you would think given their record and abysmal division. They faced an above average schedule difficulty this season. Something only the Bengals did among AFC playoff teams. They were also slightly unlucky, suggesting that they are better than 8-7 would indicate.

The Jags pass defense has been stellar this season, giving up the 6th fewest yards passing. If they can jump to a lead in the playoffs, they will have a great chance of advancing. If they get into a shootout though, this team will not be able to keep pace.

Bills – Underrated

The Bills will get the 5th seed with a Steelers loss or the 6th seed with a Steelers win, thanks to a late season loss to Pittsburg. Jets have the AFC East locked up thanks to a better division record.

It would be easy to discount the Bills after a seemingly late season collapse when they appeared to have the AFC East handed to them on a silver platter. However, both losses were in overtime to playoff teams. Both games came down to losing a game sealing McLeod fumble. Basically, this team could easily be locked into the 2nd seed if a few bounces went their way.

Statistically, this team is outstanding. They are 3rd in points scored, 1st in yards gained, 3rd in points allowed, and 3rd in passing yards allowed. McLeod has the best QB rating of any QB with at least 3000 yards. I put the Bills right up there with the Jets for best chance to give the Bengals a challenge.

Steelers – Properly Rated

Steelers have a play in game against the Falcons. Win and they’re in at the 5th seed, lose and they are out of the playoffs.

On offense Doman is efficient and Titus al-Jabbar is a big play threat. On defense, they limit big plays and force their opponents to methodically move down the field. This is the type of team that can have some success in the playoffs, but they must make it first.

Raiders – Overrated

The Raiders will make the playoffs as the 6th seed if the Steelers lose to the Falcons.

The Raiders have had by far the easiest schedule among potential AFC playoff teams, and still have the worst Pythagorean Win Expectancy. In other words, if the Raiders make it, they are just a warm up game for the Jets or Chiefs.