Season 34 Pythagorean Update

Now that every team has played at least 8 games it's time to take a look at Pythagorean stats for the first half of the season. You've heard the spiel by now: point differential is a better indicator of future success than previous won-loss record, blah blah blah. If you need a refresher, check out my post from Madden 16.

Pythagorean Win Expectancy

While the Bills lead the league in Pythagorean Win Expectation at 7.3, the Bengals and Eagles have been most impressive in my book. They have had a harder schedule and are playing closer to their record, albeit barely, than the Bills.

Anyone who has seen the Dolphins offensive woes this season will not be surprised to see them at the bottom of a rating that is based solely off of scoring margin. As usual, you have 3 of 4 NFC North teams in the bottom 6.

Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy

My favorite proprietary statistic is Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy. This adds up all of a team’s opponents’ Pythagorean Win Expectancy (scoring margin), minus games played against that team, to show how hard a schedule truly was. Scoring margin is a better indicator of team ability than record because close games are fluky, the best teams blow out their opponents, and the worst teams get blown out.

The reason I remove games played against the team I'm calculating for so that teams that are particularly bad or good, do not influence the win expectancy of their opponents. For example, the Eagles opponents would have a deflated Win Expectancy because the Eagles beat so many of their opponent’s handily. By removing games played against the Eagles, this tells how hard their schedule is independent of playing the Ealges. This allows it to be compared across the league.

The Lions may not be very good, but the Texans are definitely horrible. Just a single win against the leagues second easiest schedule is dreadful. I thought this was the year for the Raiders after starting 5-0. Now I realize much of that was largely due to the schedule. The AFC West will be very tight going down the stretch.

On the flip side, how impressive are the Redskins? Boasting a winning record against the second hardest schedule in the league is some feat for Eikim. The Saints are the only team with a top 10 most difficult schedule that is more than 1 game over .500, sitting at 7-1.

Pythagorean Win Expectation Difference (luck)

The Packers nearly being the luckiest team in the league and still awful is hilariously ironic. The Packers are literally the luckiest team in the league by virtue of playing the NFC North and coming in with far and away the best roster of the division. We all know that Cornholio has struggled with the Bears this cycle, but he really has had a tough go of it. Even the games he could win, he's coming up short.

My money is on the Lions and Cowboys falling back to the pack. They have both had easy schedules and outperformed their scoring margin. Look for the Browns, Jaguars, and Panthers to make a second half push with easier schedules and a little more luck.