Overrated, Underrated, Properly Rated -- AFC

The Bills have had an easy schedule and squeaked by in quite a few games they could have lost. Outside of checkdowns to Chekwa (more like Chek-down-wa, amirite?) this offense is anemic. McLeod has just 13 TD’s and the only running back they have averaging more than 3.6 yards per carry is receiver Correy Scott.

 

Sure the defense is excellent, allowing just 13 points a game, but once they get to the playoffs they won’t be able to feed off of terrible offenses. You heard it here first, the Bills are one and done in the playoffs.

 

The Jets do this every year. They coast to 12-15 wins while winning a bunch of close games to inferior teams; never looking all that impressive due to their easier than average schedule. They are still the most accomplished team in the AFC. They have one Super Bowl appearance, made it to three AFC title games, and have been in 6 playoffs in 6 seasons.

 

Something that has flown under the radar (see what I did there?) for the Jets this season, is their stellar defense. They have allowed the 3rd fewest yards per game. It’s one reason they have survived awful play by Bortles and Manziel. Unlike the Bills, I don’t worry about the Jets putting up points when needed.

 

I predicted this team to go 15-1, so at 12-3, you would think I would take the opportunity to gloat that I predicted they would be the cream of the AFC crop. However, the Browns have not impressed this season. Losing a few head scratchers, while barely surviving a few others. This team seems to have a problem playing down to the competition.

 

Rich Jameson has played great this season, replacing Russel Wilson. His style is much more suited for the Browns ball control offense. Unfortunately, they do not have the bell cow running back needed for such an offense, and are just 17th in yards per game. Their stellar defense keeps them in every game though, allowing just 14 points per contest. 

 

The Browns had a scoring margin of a 10 win team, despite playing a top 10 easiest schedule. I don’t see them making it to the AFC Championship game.

 

I think most thought the Jags would be a one year wonder after their Cinderella run to the Super Bowl last season. However, they have quietly been one of the most dominate teams in the AFC. With a record of 11-4, they have a better Pythagorean Win Expectancy than each of the three 12-3 AFC teams: Browns, Bills, and Jets. To top it off, they have had the most difficult schedule in the league for playoff teams, according to Opponent Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy.

 

The Jags offense has been worse than the Browns, but they have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game in the league. Their 4 losses have come against teams that have an average of 11.5 wins. The Jags and Jets are my favorite to face off in the AFC title game.

 

Two sim wins -- one of them erroneous -- will likely get the Steelers in the playoffs over the Bengals. Doman will probably win MVP due to the dubious Madden voters, even though his stats are heavily inflated by those 2 sim games – 63/85 (74.1%), 720 yards, 6 TD’s, 1 INT. 

 

Sitting at 9-5 in games played, the Steelers have had the 5th easiest schedule in the league, while losing to non-playoff teams such as the Vikings, Patriots, and Broncos. It will be a short postseason for the Steelers.

 

The Chargers record looks like an outlier in the top heavy AFC, but it is a bit deceiving. They played the hardest schedule in the league and still managed a win expectancy of a 9 win team (good for 12th in the league).

 

Even though the TD’s weren’t there for Bingham, he led the Chargers to the number one passing offense in RedZone. Coleman had another good year with 12 TD’s and approaching 1000 yards. This team can score with anyone, the question in the playoffs will be can this average defense (16th in yards and points allowed) hold up enough to give them a chance.

 

I think the Chargers will pull out a first round upset at home against one of the 12 win AFC teams. I still don’t think they have the defense to make a deeper run.