3 Teams That Will Dissapoint in Season 33

Why is it that all of the most annoying GroupMe users keep ending up in my articles? Okay, that was a bit harsh. I’d be salty too if I had to deal with Silk and Semper 4 times a year for most of the cycle. I should be grateful. I was almost stuck with the Saints before Chris orchestrated a 3 team trade that landed me the Rams before the cycle started.

 

I’m a bit off topic here. The Saints had a great year last season. In fact, they have been one of the most consistent teams in RedZone. Before last year’s 13-3 finish, the Saints finished between 7-9 and 10-6 every year.

 

With that said, the schedule gets very tough. No team had their schedule difficulty increase by as much as the Saints this season, from 5th easiest to 3rd hardest. Having played the worst division (NFC North) last season, to the best (NFC East), will have that kind of impact. They’ll also get two games against first place teams instead of third place due to the high finish.

 

On top of schedule difficulty, the Saints were pretty lucky last year in a few ways. First, they won 13 games despite having a Pythagorean Win Expectation of just over 11. Second, they played in a division with a CPU team and a newcomer to the league. I wouldn’t expect either trend to continue.

 

The roster is pretty solid, with a great receiver tandem in Cooks and Thomas to go along with second year running back Omari Childress. Unfortunately, Andy Dalton’s arm is about to fall off with Chad Pennington type arm strength. Likewise, the defense is getting older outside of the safety duo Gaiter and Tribble. Bringing back Cam Jordan, signing Dont'a Hightower and missing the draft aren’t going to help the youth movement.

 

I except the Saints to fall back into the 7-9 to 10-6 range they’ve been at for the entire cycle. That likely isn’t enough for back to back playoff runs.

Finally a user that doesn’t drive me crazy. Congratulations to Metalskull on winning RedZone Super Bowl 32. It’s a good thing he won too, because the window may be closing.

 

Between a tougher schedule and wholesale changes to the roster, the Eagles do not look poised to continue their NFC East dominance. While the Giants also had large roster turnover this season, the Cowboys are looking to rebound with a second year QB and the return of Ezekiel Elliot. I know this article isn’t about the Cowboys, but my guess is that playing half the season without Zeke will turn out to benefit Earnest.

 

The Eagles have the second most difficult schedule in the league this season (stay tuned for the first) just ahead of the Saints. And while they had a decently hard schedule last season (17th most) they were also the 4th most lucky team in the league, at one and half games above their win expectation.

 

Now for the roster. This team just does not look imposing on paper. The linebacker corps is very raw outside of DeVries. Giving up two draft picks for Melvin Gordon is peculiar given that he is essentially the same exact player as Matt Jones. This may be the worst group of receivers in the league. With their best draft pick being an average full back, you can’t count on the youngsters coming in and helping out. If Cox slips just a little, this team is going to struggle stopping people and putting up points. 

 

I think the Super Bowl champs miss the playoffs for the second time in three years.

I know, I know. I pick against the Jets every year. Not to mention, you’re probably saying to yourself “he’s back to his pattern of writing about people that drive him crazy on GroupMe.” Here’s the thing, I have been agreeing with Moji way more lately than I am comfortable with. This needs to stop now.

 

The Jets have the most difficult schedule in the league this season by Opponent Adjusted Pythagorean Strength of Schedule. Not only that, but they went from one of the easiest last season (12th easiest). That’s good for the 4th largest increase in schedule difficulty.

 

Another reason for picking on the Jets; the division is getting much better around them. I can hear Moji’s voice now, “These clowns will never win anything. Every year it’s the same. Talk to me when they sniff the playoffs, losers.” But still, the Bills had a great draft, the Dolphins setup of their finances perfectly for this free agency class, and the Pats went crazy upgrading the o-line. Not only that, they will get better just by not being so unlucky. While the Dolphins avoided having the unluckiest season in the history of RedZone, they still underperformed by about a game. The Patriots have been sitting around .500 for years now and should break though eventually (right?). And Astin has a season under his belt in guiding the Bills.

 

The Jets themselves were also lucky last season, outperforming their Pythagorean Win Expectation by the 3rd most. Although, the Jets have outperformed their Win Expectation every season this cycle, suggesting that Moji is just really good in close games. That didn’t help him against the Chiefs in the playoffs though.

 

On paper, the Jets had a great off season. On the field though, I don’t know that Bortles is an upgrade over Stafford. I think the Jets will miss Stafford’s arm strength more than they realize. Similarly, I don’t know that Le’Veon Bell is going to be the explosive back the Jets are expecting. The o-line has holes, the linebackers are fairly raw, and the corners aren’t the type you leave on an island like the Jets scheme calls for. Overall, the roster has talent, just not as much it may seem.

 

The Jets are a good team, but the AFC East gap is narrowing (finally) and this division could be a toss-up. In the end, I still think we’re one year away from someone else taking the mantle. It should be interesting, none the less.