Do you know what RedZone doesn’t have enough of? Power Rankings! So here are my 100% unbiased Power Rankings, based exclusively off cold hard data. My rankings take into account 3 data points: Pythagorean Win Expectancy, Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy, and traditional won/loss record.

 

Pythagorean Win Expectancy: Point differential is a better indicator of future success and can be used to come up with an expected win %. Here is the formula: 

points for ^ 2.37 / ( points for ^ 2.37 + points against ^ 2.37)

 

Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy: My all-time favorite stat I created. It adds up all of a team’s opponents’ Pythagorean Win Expectancy, but removes games played against the team you’re calculating it for. This keeps teams from affecting their opponents win expectancy, i.e. a really good team having a lower SoS because they deflate the differential of all their opponents.

 

Traditional won/loss record: What most power rankings are based off of. Most useful in helping to determine seeding, both for playoffs and draft picks.

 

Here’s how the algorithm works:

 

First, I created a whole new data point called Strength of Schedule Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy. This adds between -0.125% and 0.125% to each team’s raw Pythagorean Win Expectancy. How much is scaled and weighted by the team’s SoS. In other words, the team with the easiest Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy should win 4 more games than the team with the hardest. That might sound like a lot, but think about it this way. If an average team (let’s say the Raiders) played the AFC East and the NFC North instead of the NFC East and AFC North, a 4 game swing would be perfectly reasonable.

 

Now that I have this new data point, I rank each team in the league 1 to 32. Next, I rank every team in the league according to their traditional won/loss record, with tie breaks going to point differential. I then average these two rankings giving me my final data point Pythagorean Adjusted Power Rankings, with tie breakers going towards record, then point differential.

 

Now for the reasoning. Pythagorean Win Expectancy traditionally gives us the best indication of future success. While that is valuable in a vacuum, winning games does have a tangible impact on the future for a myriad of reasons. For starters, having a better record can yield home field advantage, a playoff bye, or tie breakers for even getting into the playoffs. Next, having a better record can affect confidence and XP (coach and player) helping the team to improve. Lastly, we are all humans and having a 12-4 record is going to give you more confidence than a 9-7 record, regardless of Pythagorean Win Expectancy – unless you’re a robot like me.

 

Essentially, I wanted to create a ranking that was objective while still accounting for all the factors that determines and balances how good a team is and how it has been. So why the adjustment for strength of schedule? I have always been a big believer that schedule makes a much bigger difference than people recognize or give credit to – IRL and Madden. I think this cycle we have seen that bare out with the NFC North. By giving a weighted adjustment for Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy, it controls for the strength of schedule conundrum somewhat.

 

I have broken down the rankings into tiers (because that was fun last time). Without further ado, here is the first Pythagorean Adjusted Power Ranking (roll credits):

 

Tier 1 – Contenders:

1. Rams

2. Giants

3. Steelers

4. Browns

5. Chargers

6. Panthers

 

Not too crazy right? I think anyone in RedZone would consider these teams to be the best in some order. The surprise for me was the Chargers being out of the top 4. Their ranking was lowered by having a very easy schedule (NFC North anyone) and being lucky. The Browns actually finished season 31 , first in Pythagorean Win Expectation, but the slightly easier schedule and fewer wins weren’t enough to edge out the Rams, Giants, and Steelers.

 

Tier 2 – Playoff caliber:

7. Jets

8. Bengals

9. Titans

10. Buccaneers

11. Falcons

12. Broncos

13. Cowboys

 

Yes, two of these teams didn’t make the playoffs. But they very well could have (should have?). The Bengals are, by my rankings, the 8th best team in RedZone but couldn’t sneak in thanks to an unlucky year and a very hard schedule. The Buccaneers now have the dubious title of “team that would have got it in if not for the NFC North” – it’s a bit of a mouthful – that the Giants are all too familiar with. Fun fact, the Broncos had the easiest schedule in the league this year. Fun fact 2, the Titans were tied with the Chargers for luckiest team in the league this year (outperformed their Pythagorean win Expectation by 2.5 games).

 

Tier 3 – the Beliebers (Never Say Never)

14. Eagles

15. Raiders

16. Patriots

17. Cardinals

18. Colts

19. Saints

20. Chiefs

 

I haven’t gone back and ran my algorithm on season 30 results, but I am fairly confident that the Eagles would easily be number 1. Quite the fall for the city of brotherly love. Raiders and Patriots both made a valiant effort to stay in the race late into the season and benefited from having difficult schedules (in the ranking, not so much in the win column). The Cardinals had the hardest schedule in the RedZone this year – the only team in the top 7 of Pythagorean Win Expectancy the Cards didn’t play was the Chargers.

 

Tier 4 – Holy S#%! the 49ers and Dolphins aren’t bottom 5?!

21. Redskins

22. Bills

23. Lions

24. 49ers

25. Packers

26. Jaguars

27. Dolphins

 

The Dolphins are the unluckiest team I have tracked since starting Pythagorean Win Expectancy in Madden 15. They underperformed their Win Expectation by a staggering 4 games. Put it this way, if the Dolphins had the luck of the Titans this season, they would have finished with 8 wins. EIGHT! In a normal year, the 49ers would have been the unluckiest team, underperforming by 2.5 games. They also faced the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league. The NFC North also get their first entries in the Power Rankings at 23 and 25.

 

Tier 5 – Grown Ups 2 bad

28. Seahawks

29. Texans

30. Bears

31. Ravens

32. Vikings

 

We all love these guys. But at the moment, Madden is not their strong suit. The Seahawks are a shell of their former selves, aging and losing talent at an alarming pace. The Texans have playmakers and great defenders, but nothing to make it all work. The Bears are a dumpster fire when it comes to talent. The Ravens have offensive weapons but a terrible quarterback and aging defense. And despite the excellent defense by the Vikings, they couldn’t score a touchdown to save their lives, not even against the Texans.