Future Power Rankings
by hcut2k4 | 8 years ago | 0 Comments
Future Power Rankings
In this article I want to look at how teams are setup for future success with their current roster composition. Two areas that are extremely important to roster building that I’m not going to look at today are draft picks and cap space. This exercise will be limited to just the current roster of each team. In other words, this is not a prediction on who will be the best in 3-4 seasons, just whose rosters are currently constructed for future success.
Another important factor to realize is that this is based purely on rosters. User skill will always have an outsized effect on team success. Think of it this way, if Adel were to take over team A and team B for the next 2-4 season, I would rank the team that Adel would make better and improve more, as higher.
To determine the ranking, I looked at several different data points. I chose date points that I think are good indicators of the types of players that help teams improve in the future. Here is each data point and the reason I chose it:
Players under the age of 25: Progression in Madden 17 becomes very difficult for players 25 years and older because the price for each attribute -- especially physical ones -- jumps dramatically when a player reaches 25 years of age. Having more players under this age means a team has more players that can still reasonably progress.
Average age of the team: While the number of players under 25 tells us how many players are still progressing, the average age can tell us if the team as a whole is generally progressing, stagnating, or regressing.
Median age: Taking the median of a set of numbers is similar to the average, but instead of adding and dividing, you take the middle number. This can be helpful in showing us if the average age is skewed by an older player. For example, if a team has a 39 year old punter and 37 year old kicker, the team will likely have a high average age, but the median would not be all that different.
Number of players with “Super Star” development trait under the age of 28: This shows how many top tier players and/or future stars a team has while they are in their prime or younger. I chose younger than 28 because most players will start to regress at age 28 or 29.
Number of players with “Quick” development trait under the age of 28: Same as with “Super Star” but not quite as dramatic. It still shows how many players are progressing quickly or already Pro Bowl status. Since development traits will drop if players do not meet goals, it’s a quick way to see players that are either on the way to being great players or maintaining excellent play.
Number of players with experience less than 3 years: This tells us how many players a team has that are generated from Madden draft classes. While not super helpful on its own, it can help show the teams that are building through the draft as opposed to just starting with a young team.
Number of players rated 78 or higher overall that are younger than 28: This is in my opinion, the most important indicator of future success. While overall is obviously a flawed rating, it is the best way to compare players across position. Just like with “Super Star” and “Quick” I chose 28 because it means these players aren’t regressing for at least 2-3 seasons. I chose 78 because it is generally a good cutoff for starter quality and what we use for our 3+1 resign rules. The more of these players a teams has, the fewer upgrades the team will need to make, and can therefore focus on upgrading the team rather than replenishing talent.
Whew! Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dive in. I’ve broken teams into 5 tiers. The teams are not ranked within the tiers because there is just too much subjectivity.
Tier 1 – These teams will dominate the next 2-4 seasons (if Adel is running them)
Chargers: They don’t have as many 78+ youngsters as you would expect, but they check every box for what you look for in a future team. They’re young, have star power in their prime, and have loaded up with drafted players.
Redskins: The Redskins team building hasn’t translated to success just yet, but they are one of just five teams to have a median age of 24. This means they do not have any older stars skewing the team’s age. With 6 “Super Star” or “Quick” dev young players, the Redskins have a core to build around.
Vikings: The Vikings have the 4th most players under 25, 7 “Quick” and “Super Star” dev youngsters, and not a single area of concern for young team building. This team has nowhere to go but up.
Bills: It will be exciting to see how this team transforms under new leadership. The Bills don’t have as many “Star” and “Quick” dev players as other teams on this list, but make up for with a plethora of drafted players, most of which are still under 25. A lot of development will be needed, but they have the pieces.
Buccaneers: I am really impressed with this roster. While not having any young “Super Star” dev players hurts, everything else is pointing up for the Bucs. With the second most 78+ players under 28, they have very few positions of need and can focus on getting better moving forward.
Bengals: Like the Buccaneers, the Bengals only weakness is their lack of “Star” dev players. They have done a phenomenal job of building through the draft, acquiring the most “Quick” dev players in the league, under the age of 28.
Tier 2 – These teams have a ton of pieces and could make waves with the right moves and/or development
Eagles: This team is interesting. They lead the league in 78+ players under 28, but are in the bottom half for players under 25 and drafted players. If this were covering just the next two seasons, the Eagles would definitively be in the top tier, but their window is shorter with a lot of quality players in the 25-27 age range.
Falcons: The Falcons have done a great job building through the draft the past few seasons. Their only issue is not having developed enough of those players into viable starters, with only 15 players 78+ players younger than 28. Because this team is so young, I think they will be in the top tier in no time at all.
Rams: Similar to the Falcons, the Rams have relied on building through the draft, leading the league in players under 25. They just haven’t had enough turn into quality starters to make the jump to tier 1.
Dolphins: An argument can be made that Miami belongs in the top tier. The only knock on this team is there isn’t as many young players on the team as you would expect for a rebuilding squad. They have plenty of starter quality talent, just like the Eagles, but are just average in players under 25 and drafted players. If they had just one or two “Super Star” dev players to go along with the 4 “Quick” they have, I would bump them up.
Patriots: The Patriots are 3rd in players under 25, first in generated players, and have a respectable 7 “SS” and “Quick” dev players on the team. So why are they in tier 2 then? Glad you asked, they are tied for the 4th fewest 78+ players under 28. This team is in the early stages of development, but there is a lot to like.
Titans: The Titans are on the other side of the spectrum, having a ton of starter quality players but below average in the number of young developing players.
Browns: I am very surprised the Browns did not make tier 1. Having arguably the best draft year 1, the Browns are surprisingly dearth on “Star” and “Quick” dev players with just 3 combined. They have young starters across the board. If a few more can make that big jump to elite, this team will have no problem succeeding in the future.
Tier 3 – These teams will have work to do to replenish the cupboard, but have some pieces
Cardinals: Now we start getting into a mixed bag when we talk about teams’ futures. The Cards have a lot of young players and star power, but so few starter quality players in that crucial under 28 age range. Unlike the Patriots, they don’t have enough young players to offset this and get them into tier 2.
Jaguars: The Jags are the epitome of mixed bag. On the one hand, they have 17 78+ players under 28 and 8 “SS” or “Quick” dev players. On the other, they are old by average age and are in the bottom half of the league in young players. This team doesn’t have a lot of holes, but it won’t be filling them with players already on the team.
Raiders: The Raiders are similar to the Jags without the star caliber players. Having a decent amount of 78+ players under 28 alleviates some of the pressure to bring in young talent, but this team is need of a youth movement.
Jets: This was the most surprising team for me. Having not made any draft picks this cycle, I was shocked to see the Jets have 16 players 78+ under 28, a perfectly average number of players younger than 25, and a surprising average age in the top half of the league. The Jets have done a good job of getting young in other ways, such as free agents, undrafted rookies, and trading for mostly young players.
Cowboys: If the Cowboys didn’t have so few players 78+ under 28, they would easily be in Tier 2. With a solid 7 players under 28 with “SS” and “Quick” dev and a median age younger than their average, indicating a few old players skewing the average, this team is one offseason infusion of youth to being right back on track.
49ers: Credit to the 49ers realizing that the team had peaked and focused on building for the future. This team is in need of star caliber youth, with only 3 “Star” and “Quick” dev players under 28 on the roster. They’re moving in the right direction with their plans, we’ll see if it translates to a roster better setup for the future.
Bears: The poor Bears. Easily the slimmest team in the league when it comes to talent. With a dismal 8 players 78+ under the age of 28. This teams has almost no core of young players to build around. Having won only a handful of games all cycle, it’s downright disheartening to have the cupboard be this bare – pun intended.
Tier 4 – It’s not looking great, but at least they not as bad off as the next tier
Panthers: No one can blame the Panthers for their current roster construction. They had a championship caliber team coming into the cycle and have maintained that core to keep the championship window alive. Unfortunately, it looks as though the window is closing sooner rather than later. The roster in general is really old, but they do have 7 “Quick” dev players to build around going forward.
Lions: The Lions roster has a single redeeming quality when looking at future success. They are barely in the top half of the league when it comes to 78+ overall players under the age of 28. So while they are old, lack star power, and have very few progressing players, they at least have a decent roster as of now. They just need players to push the roster forward, something they do not have now.
Packers: This is one of the most peculiar teams in the league. The Packers have an astonishing low 9 players under the age 28 with a 78+ overall. BUT, a league leading 9 “SS” and “Quick” dev players under the same age. They don’t have many players to build around going forward, but the ones they do have are studs. It looks as though this team will be very top heavy going into the future.
Texans: Other than having a bunch of generated players, there isn’t much to like about this roster. Even the Texans generated players are old, with at least 9 of them 25 or older.
Saints: The Saints have the second oldest team in the league, one of only 5 teams with a median age of 26, and a league low 11 players under 25 years old on their roster. This team was old coming into the cycle and appears to only have gotten older. Having 7 players with “Quick” or “Super Star” dev is the only reason they’re out of the bottom tier.
Steelers: Is any one surprised by this. The Steelers rarely do anything in the offseason and will likely take the same core of players all the way to the end of the cycle. Even with the team getting older by the year, I would be shocked to see a youth movement anytime soon. Outside of having 3 “Super Star” dev players, the Steelers are in the bottom half of the league in every category.
Tier 5 – These teams will have to improve entirely outside of the organization (trades, free agency, draft picks). Almost no players currently on these teams will be a part of any future success.
Giants: The Giants have been very successful so far in the cycle, even without getting a playoff appearance. But they will need to go outside the team to keep from completely falling off. The Giants rank near the bottom in every category and have a league low, just 12 players drafted this cycle. There will be plenty of leaks to start plugging soon if the ship is going to stay afloat.
Seahawks: This is arguably the worst roster situation in all of RedZone. Cap hell caused them to get rid of players in their prime and what is left is an aging group with no talent up and coming. They rank last in players under 25, average age, median age, and second to last in players under 28 with 78+ overall.
Colts: This one is with an Asterisks since they have Andrew Luck. We all know having a franchise QB masks a lot of issues. With that said, this teams is aging and not much else here to help ease the burden on Luck. They are one of just 5 teams to rank in the bottom half of the league in every category.
Broncos: Like the Panthers, the Broncos had a window and tried to keep it open as long as possible. It may be approaching time to turn over this roster in the hopes of getting younger though. With just 15 players under 25 and only 10 with 78+ overall under 28, there is not much to build out from.
Chiefs: With a not too terrible 14 players 78+ overall younger than 28, the Chiefs have little else to work with. If they are going to fill out the rest of this team in the coming years, it will be mostly with players not currently on the roster because of the lack of youth.
Ravens: The Ravens look like they were ran by an owner that was in win now mode all day every day. Since the new leadership has taken over, they have yet to reverse two years of shortsighted moves and sit with one of the oldest, talent deprived teams in the league.