Every team has played at least 8 games. You know what that means! Time to criticize the Je..., er, breakdown mid-season Pythagorean Win Expectancy. You've heard the spiel by now: point differential is a better indicator of future success than previous won-loss record, blah blah blah. If you need a refresher, check out my post from Madden 16.

 

 

Let's get the most pressing question out of the way first. With two undefeated teams, which one is better? That would be the Los Angeles Rams. With a Pythagorean Win Expectation of 6.9 games, they are somewhat lucky to be undefeated, but easily the best team in the league by a full half game over the San Diego Chargers.

 

More surprisingly, the Panthers are not 2nd, but 5th in Pythagorean Win Expectancy. They are closer to the 5-3 Eagles than the 8-0 Rams. In addition to being the 2nd luckiest team in the league, the Panthers have also benefitted from a fairly easy schedule. Their opponents have an adjusted win expectancy of 48% which is good for 14th easiest.

 

Rounding out the top 5, we have the unluckiest winning team, the Cleveland Browns, and fellow division mate, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only the Jets and Bengals have faced tougher schedules than the Steelers and still maintained a winning record.

 

The luckiest team has been the Tennessee Titans. Based on their scoring margin, you would expect them to have won just 4.6 games. Sitting at 7-1, the Titans have a great shot at overtaking the Super Bowl champs for division supremacy. Even if their luck runs out and they play to their scoring margin the rest of the way, they'll finish with 11 or 12 wins.

 

With two winless teams remaining, which of them is the worst? Neither. Both the Vikings and Ravens have worse scoring margins than the Texans and Bears. I see both of these teams getting their first win very soon.