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Madden 24 Preview-palooza Part 3 - The Season 83 QB Trade List

by adelfish | 1 year ago | 0 Comments

M24 Preview-palooza Part 3 - The Season 83 Quarterback Trade List

Welcome to Part 3 of the M24 preview, as we inch ever closer to the team draft this Saturday!

Through this preview we have hit on a few different topics, in Part 1, we touched on the top five "Win Now" rosters. In Part 2, we dissected the results of the Anonymous Coach Survey, most notably the most and least desired coaches they want to be division-ed up with.

The media has started to flow in steadily, with the latest episode of the RZ Herd diving into Warren's Bold Cycle Predictions, a great listen which can be found here.

With all of the shamless plugs out of the way, let's get into this edition's topic of "Preview-palooza." I'm going to rank quarterbacks from 18-1 based on how likely I think it is that they get traded. There are quarterbacks who simply don't fit the criteria to be traded based on their respective team's cap situation, so I listed those in a separate field. Enjoy!

Immovable Deals

Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals ($68.9 Million Dead Cap)

Keep an eye on this one after Season 83, but Kyler has to stay at least one year

Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens ($190 Million Dead Cap)

No chance, can't afford it, and you'd be an idiot to move him

Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills ($79.3 Million Dead Cap)

See Lamar Jackson

Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns ($71.9 Million Dead Cap)

Can't afford to move him, his contract crippled the team

Russell Wilson - Denver Broncos ($82 Million Dead Cap)

See Deshaun Watson

Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs ($141 Million Dead Cap)

Best player in the league isn't going anywhere, unless Blueprint gets the Chiefs

Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams ($74 Million Dead Cap)

The Rams can't afford to do it this year, but keep an eye on him in Season 84

Kirk Cousins - Minnesota Vikings ($20 Million Dead Cap)

Even with 1 year remaining on his deal, Minnesota can't afford (at this time) to take a dead cap hit.

Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints ($53.3 Million Dead Cap)

New Orleans projects to be $-70 million in cap heading into the offseason, cutitng Carr puts them over $-100 million

Daniel Jones - New York Giants ($82 Million Dead Cap)

Jones earned a new four year contract, there looks to be a potential out after two years if necessary

Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets ($61.9 Million Dead Cap)

The Jets just traded for Rodgers, he isn't going anywhere

Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles ($137 Million Dead Cap)

Rookies

Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers

Hendon Hooker - Detroit Lions

C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans

Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts

Will Levis - Tennessee Titans

Would Love to Trade, But NOBODY is Taking This Contract

Jimmy Garroppolo

Contract: 3 Years, $72,750,000, $45,00,000 Guaranteed
32 Years Old, 3 Years Remaining
$22.5 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $16.1 Million Dead Cap

It's not a terrible contract, but nobody is giving up an asset to acquire 3 years of Jimmy Garroppolo. I don't see him playing out the contract, but I can't see him being traded.

Geno Smith

Contract: 3 Years, $75,000,000, $40,000,000 Guaranteed
33 Years Old, 3 Years Remaining
$500k Savings if Traded/Released, $27 Million Dead Cap

Geno was the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year, and earned a three year extension, but this is a similar situation to Jimmy G. Nobody is giving picks up to acquire a 33 year old quarterback who may be a flash in the pan, and Seattle would be taking a $27 million cap hit over the next two years, with little savings. They'd need a decent pick to make this worth it, and I doubt anyone pays that.

Ryan Tannehill

Contract: 4 Years, $118,000,000, $91,000,000 Guaranteed
35 Years Old, 1 Years Remaining
$27 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $9.6 Million Dead Cap

Nobody is taking on his yearly salary, sorry, they just aren't. There are some teams that need an upgrade at the quarterback position, but Tannehill is in the fringe territory of even being an upgrade. He is 35 years old, with his cap hit being $36 million this year. Yikes.

If the Titans paid a draft pick, along with Tannehill, for a team to take him, I'm sure another team would do that. I envision Tannehill taking a back seat to Will Levis, then walking in free agency.

The 18 Most Likely to be Traded Rankings

#18 - Joe Burrow

Contract: 4 Years, $36,190,137, $36,190,137 Guaranteed
27 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (1 Year of Rookie Deal, 2nd Year $29.5 Million 5th Year Option)
500k Savings if Traded/Released, $40 Million Dead Cap

As you'll find out, some of these are extremely unlikely, but belong on this list because it is possible, and crazier things have happened. Burrow's 5th year option was picked up for a guaranteed $29 million, so the Bengals are on the hook for that if they decide to trade him.

The Bengals planned well, holding $44 million in cap space next offseason, and a lot of this will be going to a Joe Burrow extension. If the Bengals owner decides they want to start over at the position, and keep their talented offensive core together, they could ship him out for a boatload of draft picks.

Once again, I don't see it happening. Burrow would be on my untouchables list if I was the owner, but he has been traded before.

#17 - Justin Herbert

Contract: 4 Years, $26,578,755, $26,578,755 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (1 Year of Rookie Deal, $29.5 Million 5th Year Option)
$500k Savings if Traded/Released, $37 Million Dead Cap

Similar to Burrow, Herbert received a 5th year option of $29 million guaranteed, so a trade would hit the Chargers with a cap hit of nearly $40 million over two seasons. They have cap issues coming up, so taking on these penalties would only further cripple them financailly. They would basically be rolling with the current roster, plus any rookies + UDFAs.

In two seasons, when Herbet's deal is up, the Chargers are freeing up money from Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Johnson, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Khalil Mack, totaling almost $100 million. So they'll be able to pay him, at the trade-off of almost all of these players walking.

That is the decision the Chargers owner needs to make; do we re-up Herbert and basically start over at other spots, or take a boatload of picks for Herbert? Personally, I'd choose Herbert.

#16 - Trevor Lawrence

Contract: 4 Years, $36,793,488, $36,793,488 Guaranteed
24 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (5th Year Option Pending)
$4 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $12 Million Dead Cap

Unless an unhinged GM inherits the Jaguars, Lawrence isn't going anywhere. He is 24 years old, has two years remaining of cap controlled play, and is going to be a top five quarterback soon. It would take years of 1st round picks, and more, to get a deal done. He isn't getting traded.

The only reason I put him two spots above the bottom, is that it's the least crippling of the "Big Three" quarterbacks who are reaching the end of their deals. The Jaguars would take a very small hit at this point, unless they pick up his 5th year option.

#15 - Justin Fields

Contract: 4 Years, $18,871,957, $18,871,957 Guaranteed
24 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (5th Year Option Pending)
$2.3 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $5.4 Million Dead Cap

This depends on who the Bears owner is, but I will be very curious to see what happens with Fields. I think he is going to be off the charts with his ratings, especially his scrambling. The question is, will his passing abilities be good enough to warrant a long-term deal? In the right hands, Fields can be a superstar in this league.

If Fields falls into a bottom tier user's hands, I could see him being moved. It will take a lot, due to his upside, but it is possible. The Bears would only be on the hook for $5 million over two seasons, so there is no issue financially. Could be a situation to watch.

#14 - Dak Prescott

Contract: 4 Years, $160,000,000, $126,000,000 Guaranteed
30 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining
$1.7 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $50.6 Million Dead Cap

I think the Cowboys (once again, depending on user) would entertain moving on from Prescott, but the issue is going to be the $50 million hit that they have to deal with for the next two seasons. The Cowboys have the capability to win now, so this decision is going to come down to the skill of the user. If a mid to upper tier user gets the Cowboys, I would hang on to Prescott. I think he is worth his deal.

A return for him is what gets tricky, because the team acquiring him needs to make it worth it for Dallas. They'd be starting over at quarterback, and would be punting on the primes of some of their core players. It's a tough situation, which is why I ranked him low.

#13 - Brock Purdy

Contract: 4 Years, $3,737,008, $77,000 Guaranteed
24 Years Old, 3 Years Remaining
$-20k Savings if Traded/Released, $60k Dead Cap

The 49ers quarterback situation is a conundrum, with Trey Lance and Brock Purdy on roster. There are many variable to take into account, but the likelihood is that the owner will choose the cheaper option to go forward with. Purdy has one extra year on his contract than Lance does, and is significantly less in terms of financial commitment.

Lance has a ton of upside, and I think he could warrant a really good return in a trade. I think the 49ers go forward with Purdy, and get whatever they can for Lance.

#12 - Kenny Pickett

Contract: 4 Years, $14,067,905, $14,067,905 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 3 Years Remaining (5th Year Option Pending)
$1.35 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $5.55 Million Dead Cap

This depends on what Pickett's ratings are, which is why I'm putting him in the lower half of these rankings. He still has three more seasons of cap control on his cheap rookie deal, plus a 5th year option if necessary. The downside is that he is 25 years old, so his development peak is in the rearview mirror.

Pickett is an interesting one. If he comes in with above-average ratings, he could be a really intriguing piece for a team that is a quarterback away, or simply for the Steelers to keep and develop. Like I said, it's all dependent on ratings.

#11 - Jared Goff

Contract: 4 Years, $134,000,000, $110,042,682 Guaranteed
29 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining
$25 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $10 Million Dead Cap

There are a lot of variables that go into this one. First off, who will the owner of the Lions be? If there is a skilled user at the helm, I could see Goff remaining the starter. Hooker is likely a massive ratings project, so he won't be ready to lead a playoff caliber team.

If we get a user who wants to develop Hooker for the long term, I think Goff is a very attractive quarterback to trade for. He should get above-average ratings, and his cap number is very manageable. I don't think the Lions would get a ton in a return, but it is a definite possibility.

#10 - Tyler Huntley

Contract: 1 Years, $2,627,000, $2,627,000 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 1 Years Remaining
$2.63 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $0 Dead Cap

Huntley is a Pro Bowl quarterback, on a cheap 1 year deal, and has no shot to start for his respective team. What more can you ask for on a trade ranking list?

All jokes aside regarding his Pro Bowl status, I like Huntley as a sneaky trade option. Depending on his ratings, he could start in Red Zone for someone, and his age/cap number are very appealing. Give him a shot somewhere else to earn a contract. For all the reasons I just listed, the Ravens may be inclined to keep him.

#9 - Davis Mills

Contract: 4 Years, $5,217,531, $1,157,892 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining
$1.13 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $580k Dead Cap

Depending on ratings, but Davis Mills feels very "meh" to me. If he comes in with some decent intangibles, he could be a fun reclamation project for a good user to work on. He is still 25, and has two years remaining at an extremely low cap number. He wouldn't cost much to acquire in a trade either.

#8 - Baker Mayfield

Contract: 1 Years, $4,000,000, $3,500,000 Guaranteed
28 Years Old, 1 Years Remaining
$500k Savings if Traded/Released, $3.5 Million Dead Cap

This is an interesting one. Baker's ratings in Madden always seem to be above average, despite his low overall. We have seen Mayfield develop in the past into a superstar, and if his high throw power remains intact, someone is going to take a flier on him. His financial commitment is extremely low, and he is only under contract for one season. If Tampa wants to roll the dice on Trask, I'm sure they could find a trade partner quickly.

#7 - Desmond Ridder

Contract: 4 Years, $5,362,959, $1,080,336 Guaranteed
24 Years Old, 3 Years Remaining
$940k Savings if Traded/Released, $800k Dead Cap

I think Ridder is going to be one of the cycle's most interesting stories to watch, especially early on. Will the Falcons owner embrace the ground-and-pound style that is being built there, and develop an offense around Ridder's legs? I think he could be a very effective quarterback in the right hands.

I think he will get a ton of interest from other teams early on. With his age and cap number, and likely high intangibles, he is going to be a very intriguing development piece. I also think it would surprise the league how much some would be willing to acquire him. Keep an eye on this one.

#6 - Jordan Love

Contract: 2 Years, $22,500,000, $13,500,000 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (This Deal Replaced the 5th Year Option)
$500k Savings if Traded/Released, $11.2 Million Dead Cap

For me this mostly depends on ratings. Love has been a below-average player since he was drafted in Madden, and I believe has received a max of "Star" ability. The Packers opted to extend him one year instead of using the 5th year option, which actually increases the likelihood of a trade. In Madden, once you get to a certain age, it is very difficult to develop your players.

Love is already 25, and hasn't played. I could see a good user trading for him, if they think they can earn some in-game awards to increase his development.

#5 - Mac Jones

Contract: 4 Years, $15,586,325, $15,586,325 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (5th Year Option Pending)
$2 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $4.34 Million Dead Cap

Mac is a very cheap 1st round quarterback, who despite low throw power, will come in with above-average to very good accuracy ratings. In the right hands, on the right team, he could lead a playoff caliber offense. I don't think he is long for New England, and I find it hard to believe his trade value is any higher than it is right now (which isn't very high).

I could see the Patriots user moving on from Mac for a mid-round pick, and banking on that first draft to replace him.

#4 - Malik Willis

Contract: 4 Years, $5,160,100, $932,000 Guaranteed
24 Years Old, 3 Years Remaining
$940k Savings if Traded/Released, $690k Dead Cap

This is entirely dependent on if the Titans user thinks Will Levis is the future. If they do, Willis is an extremely interesting prospect. His rare athleticism and arm talent are a dream for any user who has the capabilities of developing a gameplan around those strengths. In the right hands, we have seen Willis grow into a superstar talent.

This is another player I'll be very interested to watch come the first season.

#3 - Tua Tagovailoa

Contract: 4 Years, $30,275,438, $30,275,438 Guaranteed
25 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (1 Year Rookie Contract, 1 Year $23.2 5th Year Option)
$500k Savings if Traded/Released, $9.13 Million Dead Cap

My Spidey-Sense is tingling regarding Tua in a trade. He was traded last cycle and became a very effective game manager for the Falcons. He is coming into this Madden off of his best season in the NFL, so he is going to see a ratings boost. He is approaching a big contract extension, that I am not entirely sure is the right decision for Miami.

I think he gets traded, and the Dolphins add a veteran quarterback to lead this extremely talented roster.

Tua is still at the stage where he could net an above-average to good return, especially with his current low cap number. In the right hands, as we saw last cycle, he can be a very effective quarterback. Based on the criteria of this list, I think he is a prime candidate to be moved.

#2 - Trey Lance

Contract: 4 Years, $34,105,275, $34,105,275 Guaranteed
23 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining
$3.7 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $11 Million Dead Cap

I think this is a no-brainer for the 49ers. Lance has a ton of upside, is still 23, and has two years remaining on his contract. I think the 49ers could net a very good return in a trade, and have their quarterback of the future on an absolute joke of a contract (Purdy).

Lance, in the right hands, could develop into a superstar. I just think he is too tempting of a trade piece for the 49ers to hang on to him, and he nets way more in a deal than Purdy does.

#1 - Zach Wilson

Contract: 4 Years, $35,150,681, $35,150,681 Guaranteed
24 Years Old, 2 Years Remaining (5th Year Option Pending)
$3.86 Million Savings if Traded/Released, $11.5 Million Dead Cap

With Aaron Rodgers in town, Zach Wilson has been relegated to backup duties. In Red Zone, it is very unique to keep a high upside player on the bench, and teams will come calling for a guy who will have high throw power. I think it is very likely he gets moved in the first season.

He meets all the criteria for a trade; age, limited financial risk for the Jets and the team acquiring him, and the lack of opportunity for him to play. Wilson was traded last cycle when he was the guy, so as a backup, I think he is the easy favorite to be moved.