Season 68 Championship Game Previews
by adelfish | 4 years ago | 0 Comments
Season 68 Championship Game Previews
Welcome to Championship Tuesday! There is no more exciting day, then two games featuring four teams fighting for the right to compete for a title.
We are going to take a look at both games, and I'll provide my predictions of how these will shake out...
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
#1 ATLANTA FALCONS (16-2) VS #2 ARIZONA CARDINALS (14-4)
Quite the matchup in Atlanta, as the top two seeds from the NFC collide in the Championship Game, featuring two coaches who have both won a championship this cycle.
These two met back in Week 1, with the Falcons taking that game 31-21, despite 0 touchdown passes from MVP candidate D.J. Carter. Kyler Murray threw 3 interceptions in the loss.
Keys for Atlanta
- Key in on the run game
There is no secret to the Cardinals' success this season - the run game. Rookie running back Dwight Miller has had a fantastic first season, one that will earn him a shot at Rookie of the Year. He has totaled 1600 total yards and 9 total touchdowns this season, and has been the engine for the Cardinals top ranked rushing offense.
Ramesu wants to be methodical with his offensive approach, and hit the big plays that the defense gives him. There is no real trend to Miller struggling and the Cardinals losing, in two of the four losses for Arizona this year, Miller had 100+ rushing yards.
The Falcons front seven poses one of the most difficult tests for the Cardinals. Clayton Wagner and Michael Pierce on the line, with Takk McKinley and Deion Jones at linebacker. A ton of speed and power. Jones will be tasked with containing Murray, along with slowing Miller.
- Score first
Making the Cardinals offense uncomfortable is huge. Kyler Murray has won MVP twice this cycle, but is currently having one of his lower statistical campaigns, in terms of yardage. He is completing passes at a high percentage rate, but is also throwing more interceptions.
In the four losses for Arizona this year, Murary threw 11 interceptions (11 of the 17 total this season). 3 of those came against Atlanta in Week 1.
This team is not built to play from behind, and have one of the worst offensive lines in football (top pass block starter is 78 PBK). If the Falcons go up early and force Arizona to play catch up, it could be a rough afternoon for Murray.
Keys for Arizona
- Trust your secondary
The Cardinals are one of the best equipped secondaries to slow the Rich Walker and Calvin Ridley duo. With Byron Murphy, Chris Tatum, and Isaiah Simmons, expect Ramesu to move these three around to contain the explosive plays.
The Cardinals were the only team all season to hold the Falcons to 0 passing touchdowns, now I do not expect this to happen again, but it shows that the pieces are here to slow this explosive Falcons attack. Remember, the Falcons rushing offense is almost non-existent. If they can't get the explosive plays they normally do, they are going to struggle. Arizona poses the biggest test they've faced.
- Take care of the football
Pretty obvious, but as mentioned above, when Kyler Murray turns the ball over, the Cardinals tend to lose. In 4 losses he threw 11 interceptions, and the rest of the year he threw 6. The Falcons offense is too talented to give extra possessions to, so taking care of the football is critical.
You may see a more pocket-passer version of Murray this game. With the presence of Deion Jones on the other side of the ball, I don't expect Ramesu to test that matchup on the ground much. Despite a really down year for him, this could be a big Josh Kershaw game.
The Prediction
How much do we knock the Falcons for an easy schedule? In games against teams that made the playoffs this year, they went 6-0. Yes that includes the Lions and Bengals, but they both made it. The Falcons did exactly what they needed to do all year, but this is a really tough matchup for them.
I like Arizona's balance on offense more than Atlanta's. I think that the odds of a great Kyler Murray game are higher than a great Atlanta running game. The defense for Arizona is stout, and could really create some problems for Atlanta's passing game. Now, Walker is arguably the biggest offensive threat in the game, so I'm not trying to dismiss him, but the secondary for Arizona is loaded.
If Atlanta comes out firing, they can run away with this game if they can get into the endzone early. If Arizona is able to control the pace, this is their game to win. Based on how these two teams are constructed, I just think the Falcons are better top to bottom, and have a higher upside in general. Their offensive line, linebackers, and wideouts are all superior to Arizona's. I have Atlanta winning a close game to advance to RZ Bowl 68.
SCORE PREDICTION: Atlanta 24 - Arizona 20
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
#1 DENVER BRONCOS (14-4) VS #2 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (14-4)
Another 1 v 2 matchup, this time in the AFC, as we see decorated head coach Cory Astin face against John Scott, a coach who has tasted playoff success, but has yet to get over the hump.
These two teams faced off in Week 2, with Denver winning 21-0.
Keys for Pittsburgh
- Stick to your game plan
The roster for Pittsburgh is loaded, arguably the best roster in the league. Yet, the Steelers have struggled against the cream of the crop in the league. There are two concerning losses we can look at on their schedule (Week 2 vs Denver, Week 11 vs Atlanta) and see their real weaknesses.
In both of those games, Jordan Love threw 6 interceptions, and under 200 passing yards. You can even look at the Week 15 loss to Jacksonville, where he threw 2 interceptions and 254 yards (but a 58.6% completion).
Love threw 3 interceptions against the Texans in the divisional round, but the Steelers defense managed to will them to a 16-13 victory. This will not work against Denver.
Denver's passing offense is explosive, and Astin is one of the best coaches in terms of capitalizing on mistakes. If Pittsburgh loses the turnover battle, they will lose this game. The Steelers have shown far too often that they are capable of going completely ice cold on offense when Love starts throwing interceptions.
When the Steelers take care of the football, and get Kendrick Babineaux touches, they are really tough to beat. When they have short possessions, and turn the ball over, the vaunted defense gets tired. Pretty simple formula.
- Contain Jerry Jeudy
This Denver offense is good, but is top heavy. Their run game is the worst in the league, and against Pittsburgh's front seven, I don't expect Alex Herbert to do anything noteworthy (he had 23 rushing yards the last time these two played).
Jerry Jeudy accounted for 1500 yards and 10 touchdonws. The next closest yardage amount was 885, from rookie wideout Christopher Alford. The Broncos do a great job at spreading the ball around, but there is no doubt that Jeudy is their top threat.
If Pittsburgh can limit the explosive plays from Jeudy, there is a good chance at an upset here. Drew Lock is among the top five most sacked quarterbacks in the leauge, and also threw 24 interceptions (third most among playoff quarterbacks, highest of all remaining quarterbacks). There are some real weaknesses to this Broncos offense, but if they can't slow down Jeudy, it will be a long day for Pittsburgh defending the pass.
Keys for Denver
- Continue riding the defensive wave
The momentum that Denver's defense is riding is scary right now. After a really troubling loss to the 49ers back in Week 14, the Broncos have rallied off 4 straight, including the 38-0 shutout of the defending champion Jets last week.
The defense has been the story, especially with their ability to intercept the football. The Broncos finished 7th in the league with 33 interceptions, and saw that on display against the Jets with 6 more.
The pass rush has been getting better, as the Broncos finished middle of the pack in the regular season, they had 5 sacks against the Jets. They have a lot of pass rushers to attack with, including Bradley Chubb, Trumaine Elam, Grady Jarrett, and Bryce Boone. There is a ton of upside on that defensive line.
The Steelers are prone to turning the ball over. The Broncos possess the league's 10th best rushing defense. Forcing Jordan Love into 3rd and longs, and getting after the passer seems to be the path to success.
- Taking care of the football is paramount
Boring, I know. But football comes down to turnovers, and no team knows that more than Denver. In all four of their losses this year, Denver lost the take/give battle. As mentioned above, Drew Lock has thrown 24 interceptions this year, which is a lot for a playoff quarterback.
The worst part of that number, is that the Broncos don't have a good run game to fall back on. In fact, their run game might as well be non-existent. There hasn't been a 100 yard rusher on the Broncos this year, and starting running back Alex Herbert averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Denver's path to success is Drew Lock throwing touchdown passes, and the Denver defense winning the take/give battle. If Denver starts to turn the ball over, Pittsburgh may have a chance at the upset.
The Prediction
The history between these two teams favors Denver, heavily. They are 5-0 in their 5 matchups this cycle, but the games have been closer as of late.
The betting will 100% favor Denver, this is a coaching staff that has been to a ton of big games, and has won many championships. There are a few things to think about though.
Denver has struggled in the playoffs this cycle, the most that an Astin coaching staff has in some time. The amount of turnovers that the offense has thrown is pretty alarming, and could be the catalyst for an upset. Remember, the Broncos smoked the Jets last week, but it was mostly due to the inept Jets offense, not what the Broncos offense did.
The Steelers are notorious for struggling on the big stage under John. He has never beaten Astin, and has the most clunkers of a playoff team in recent memory. If he can let his defense do what they do, and play ball control football, there is a chance. If Jordan Love starts throwing picks, Denver will run away with this.
Despite the blemishes on Denver, I trust their coaching staff. I don't see how Astin will lose to King John at home in the AFC Championship Game. It would take an awful Drew Lock game for that to happen.
SCORE PREDICTION: Denver 27 - Pittsburgh 16