The Kamryn Killings Kerfuffle - Revisiting the Killings Trade
by adelfish | 4 years ago | 0 Comments
The Kamryn Killings Kerfuffle
Grading the Kamryn Killings Trade 5 Years Later
Do you remember where you were sitting when it happened? I do, I was sitting in my office, twiddling my thumbs waiting to hear back from potential trade partners, as this tweet flashed across my television set.
Those crazy sons of guns in Minnesota did it. Bubba Bitz and his staff couldn't resist the idea of getting a treasure trove of picks in return for the right to take the greatest quarterback prospect since Dakotah Harris (only RZ veterans will understand that reference, sorry Fox crew).
Kamryn Killings, as discussed around his draft, was nearly a perfect prospect. Whoever traded for his rights was about to inherit a sure-fire thing, that could set you up for multiple championship runs. But who completed the trade, and what was the cost?
Yep.....
The Colts traded three seasons of 1st round picks, two seasons of 2nd round pcks, and a 3rd round pick, to move up to select quarterback Kamryn Killings. The Colts, under the leadership of Ricky Chapstick, were coming off their best cycle with the Washington Football Team, the prestigious RZ Bowl eluding them, but coming so close.
Inside the walls of that front office, it was determined that this roster was a quarterback away, and Ricky was the right man to lead him. They placed the call to Bitz, offering the future of the Colts to select Killings.
With a young nucleus of Nelson, Campbell, Pittman, Taylor, and more on the roster, the move was praised around the league. Things seemed to be in place for a cycle of dominance in a difficult AFC South, that just saw their rivals in Tennessee reach the RZ Bowl.
But how did it go? Now that we are 5 full years off the trade, it's time to look back, and see how things fared for the Colts and the Vikings.
COLTS GRADE
Stats: 19,713 Passing Yards, 149 Passing Touchdowns, 98 Interceptions, 71% Completion, 73 Games
Division Titles w/ Killings: 1 (Season 63)
Playoff Record w/ Killings: (1-2)
Playoff Appearences w/ Killings: 2
Pro Bowl Appearences: 3
Notable Awards: Season 63 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Season 63 Rookie of the Year, Season 66 Associated Press Best AFC Quarterback
So, was it worth it?
Anytime you trade away three years worth of 1st round picks, you need to be able to secure a deep playoff run, at least that's my opinion.
This is essentially the Robert Griffin III deal that Washington and Los Angeles completed, which saw Washington sending three years of their 1st round picks to the Rams, in exchange to get up to #2 and draft RG3. We all know how that turned out, with Griffin winning the NFC East his rookie year, getting hurt in the game, then never returning to form.
Funny enough, the career trajectory, minus the injury, is a mirror image of Killings. The Colts cruised to an AFC South title in Killings' rookie season, losing to the Miami Dolphins at home, in a game that saw Killings throw 4 interceptions. Didn't matter, the future was so bright after the Rookie of the Year lead them to the division, and despite the turnovers, a close playoff lose.
The Colts managed to make the playoffs the following year in Season 64, knocking off the Jets in a 'wild', wild card victory in New York, then falling to the Tennessee Titans in the divisional round, 38-34.
That would be the final playoff game of Killings' career under Ricky Chapstick.
It was not for a lack of trying. Ricky Chapstick's team building was actually solid, making moves to acquire wide receiver Amari Cooper, drafting stud wideout Justin Bennet and tight end Trevor Ward, and retaining and building around the core pieces of the offensive line.
In the three years after making the playoffs back to back seasons, Killings accounted for 84 passing touchdowns and 67 interceptions. He posted his first season with more turnovers than touchdowns in Season 65 (23/25). This all happened despite his sack numbers going down, as Killings was sacked 49 times his rookie season, and 46 times his sophomore campaign, both career highs.
So what happened? It's really hard to pinpoint, but it seemed that the offense just wasn't clicking. Jonathan Taylor had seasons of 1168, 1513, and 1060 yards in those three regular season campaigns, so there certainly wasn't a lack of a run game. Wideout Justin Bennett posted three straight 1000+ yard seasons, along with the play of Amari Cooper and Trevor Ward.
It just seemed inconsistent, the Colts hovered around .500 for most of those years. Defensively there were issues, but most of those stemmed from the amount of turnovers from Kamryn Killings, and I didn't even mention his 16 fumbles in those three years.
Unfortunately, Ricky Chapstick departed the Colts for a sabbatical after the 5th year of Killings, and inking the superstar to a long-term contract extension. The talent is there with Killings, and the weapons are certainly there, but is this guy the ultimate stat-stuffer, that just can't win the big games? Right now, it seems to be that way.
FINAL GRADE FOR COLTS: B-
The Colts would do this trade every time. They put themselves in a position to have a top five quarterback in the league, with a young roster ready to win. They accomplished playoff success early, but fell apart down the stretch, and never reached the postseason again, and saw the front office depart that drafted Kamryn. The Colts failed to achieve their goals with the rookie contract, but still have Killings for the remainder of the cycle. With a rookie coaching staff in place, it seems Killings will go an entire cycle without an AFC Championship Game appearence.
VIKINGS GRADE
Players Acquired: Jonathan Stockton (DE, 86 OVR) - Donte Bird (WR, 78 OVR) - Luke Morant (WR, 88 OVR) - Stephon Gillislee (OLB - 71 OVR) - Mack Robinson (TE - 83 OVR) - John Dodson (MLB - 69 OVR)
Division Titles Since Trade: 3
Playoff Record Since Trade: (1-3)
Playoff Appearences Since Trade: 3
Notable Awards: Donte Bird (Pro Bowl Appearence)
So there is the haul of players that the Vikings received from the trade, with the obvious big names being defensive end Jonathan Stockton and wide receiver Luke Morant. The lone black mark on this group is that Stephon Gillislee is no longer on the roster.
We'll take a look at each player and see how they have done for their career since being drafted.
Season 63 - 1st Round - Pick #11
Jonathan Stockton - Defensive End - 86 OVR
27 Sacks - 54 Tackles for Loss - 3 Forced Fumbles - 2 Fumble Recoveries
With the first of his treasure trove of picks, Bitz brought in Jonathan Stockton, one of the 'safest' picks in the Season 63 draft class. The idea was to pair Stockton with the elite edge rusher Danielle Hunter for the cycle.
Stockton hasn't become a true pass rusher, but his run defense is what makes him so great. Averaging about 5 sacks per season is respectable for a run defender, as he averages 10+ TFLs per season. Stockton has been a big part in the Vikings winning the NFC North 3 times, and a part of some above-average Vikings defenses.
Season 63 - 3rd Round - Pick #11
Donte Bird - Wide Receiver - 78 OVR
7 Receptions - 150 Yards - 3 Touchdowns
In the 3rd round, the Vikings looked for some receiving help. Donte Bird had a big chance to make an impact on the Vikings, with the team still one year off the Stefon Diggs trade, and possessing an aging Adam Thielen. Bird failed to do that, racking up only 2 receptions for 2 yards and a touchdown his rookie year.
He wouldn't catch a pass until Season 67, as he has fallen down the depth chart. He has been a returner for the Vikes, but his presence is mostly felt on special teams.
Season 64 - 1st Round - Pick #27
Luke Morant - Wide Receiver - 88 OVR
140 Receptions - 2071 Yards - 15 Touchdowns
Receiving help came, just a year later. With their second 1st round pick from Indianapolis, the Vikings grabbed the speedy Luke Morant. Morant immediately became the #2 in the offense behind Justin Jefferson, with 778 yards and 5 touchdowns his rookie year.
Unfortunately, that was his career high. He has posted seasons of 693, 245, and 355 since. Due to issues at the quarterback position, Morant struggled to find consistent footing in the offense. There is no doubt he is supremely talented, just hasn't posted the numbers you think he would.
Season 64 - 2nd Round - Pick #27
Stephon Gillislee - Linebacker - 71 OVR
12 Tackles - 1 Blocked Kick
Not much to say here, Gillislee has some talent, but seemed to be overdrafted. He didn't excel at anything, and struggled to find snaps on the Vikings. He was a depth player for three years, before heading to Cleveland in his fourth year, racking up 35 tackles and 1 interception.
He is now an unrestricted free agent looking for work.
Season 65- 1st Round - Pick #25
Mack Robinson - Tight End - 83 OVR
96 Receptions - 1366 Yards - 11 Touchdowns
Mack Robinson became the next and final of the 1st round picks for the Vikings from the Colts, one of the most talented tight ends in a class that saw Lloyd Reece go to the Steelers. With the departure of Kyle Rudolph, the Vikings needed a tight end to step in and join Irv Smith Jr.
Robinson has been 2nd on the depth chart behind Irv Smith, posting respectable numbers each season, of 521, 644, and 201 yards, but has become a true red zone threat with his 11 touchdowns.
There is no doubt Robinson is a good player, but it really surprised me that the Vikings kept both him and Smith on the roster. For comparison, Smith has posted seasons of 839, 952, and 776 since Robinson was drafted, along with 21 touchdowns. The two tight end offense is rare, but it seems to be working in Minnesota.
Season 65 - 2nd Round - Pick #19
John Dodson - Linebacker - 69 OVR
19 Tackles
And finally, rounding out the picks comes John Dodson. The Vikings had been looking for linebacker help with the losses of Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks, and with a dud of a pick in Stephon Gillislee, they needed to hit on one.
Dodson was not a hit, although he is still on the roster, he has been a backup his entire career. His biggest season came in his sophomore campaign, totaling 10 tackles. He seems to be a special teamer, which is a tough pill to swallow from a high mid-round 2nd.
So....was it worth it?
Honestly, I am surprised by how these draft picks shaped out. I know the draft is very difficult to find studs in, and the Vikings were picking in the mid to late 1st round all three of these years, but it seemed like they haven't found any major building blocks with these picks.
The late round picks were completely wasted, all three of those picks (Bird, Gillislee, Dodson) are complete non-factors. Stockton and Morant are the best players from these picks. Stockton is the best all-around player, and Morant has a ton of talent, but has never reached 1000 yards.
To add some insult to injury, the Vikings selected quarterback Matt Overton with the 1st overall pick 1 year later, and the inconsistent play of him, along with his poor development, really hurt the Vikings in the long run.
I think if Eikim could go back, he would still do the trade, but I wonder if he ever wishes he would have just taken Killings, and built around him?
FINAL GRADE FOR VIKINGS: B
The Vikings added some good players in Luke Morant and Jonathan Stockton, and make more playoff games than the Colts did in the same time, albeit in the NFC North. The Colts and Vikings won the same amount of playoff games during Killings' rookie contract. This trade is one that I think both parties would do again, but it did not affect their long-term success like they thought it would. Ultimately, I still think the Vikings 'won' the trade, they were able to add 3 blue chip talents to their roster, while the Colts banked on their current situation.
Overall, this trade was an absolute blockbuster. It was fun to see a legitimate playoff caliber team in the Colts go up to get the quarterback of a lifetime in Killings, and watch the ultimate draft guru in Eikim get the treasure trove of assets to play with.
The trade worked initially for both parties, they both won their division, and won a playoff game. Neither of these teams reached an AFC or NFC Championship, and shockinly Kamryn Killings hasn't won any awards since his rookie season. It's a tough one to grade, due to how things have changed down the stretch.
It was fun to look back at these teams and see how things ended up, hope you enjoyed the read! Until next time....