The Kill List

by adelfish | 4 years ago | 2 Comments

THE KILL LIST

Has there ever been a quarterback quite like Kamryn Killings to enter Red Zone?

Well, yes. Dakotah Harris from cycles ago. Outside of Harris, there has yet to be a quarterback who has come out with the projected athleticism, and skillset that Killings has. 

Standing at 6'3, 229 pounds, Killings has showcased his talents all season for the Oregon State Beavers, as the 21 year old has cemented himself as the top selection coming into the Red Zone's 62nd draft.

Killings just completed a season in which he threw 40 touchdowns, rushed for 5, and totaled 4500 yards through the air and on the ground. He said all the right things all season long, becoming a favorite of reporters around the NCAA. With massive wins over Oregon, USC, Stanford, and UCLA, Killings proved that he could win big games.

How special could this kid be? A franchise changer. The experts have all agreed, from Mike Mayock, to Ian Johns, that this kid is going #1 overall. Killings has shown he has the strongest arm in the class, along with his ability to throw on the run. If he tests well at the combine (which is likely, given his body of work), he could prove to be one of the greatest prospects in Red Zone history.

So what exactly is 'The Kill List'? 

We are going to dive into the list of teams that need him the most, what it would take to get him, and how much I project it would effect their cycle outlook. Enjoy this look at a rare consensus quarterback!

No Fit

Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson

Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow

Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa

Philadelphia Eagles - Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts

Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray

Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen

Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert

Houston Texans - Deshaun Watson

Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson, No 1st Rounder

Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes

Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Vikings will not trade with Green Bay

Dallas Cowboys - Just re-signed Dak Prescott to a long term deal

The Fits that Don't Have the Assets

Every single one of the teams in this tier would LOVE to have the ability to trade up for Kamryn Killings, but they simply won't have the draft assets to do so.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-2)

Quarterbacks on Roster - Tom Brady (90 OVR), Blaine Gabbert (62 OVR)

The Bucs are Super Bowl or bust, and they traded away their 1st round pick to the Texans for defensive lineman J.J. Watt. There is no combination of assets that they can put together to trade back into the 1st round, Eikim will not sacrifice the 1st overall pick without at least staying in this year's 1st. This would be my ideal fit though, to transition from Brady to Killings. I really think Tauph is regretting the Watt trade.

Los Angeles Rams (6-8)

Quarterbacks on Roster - Jared Goff (77 OVR), John Wolford (57 OVR), Bryce Perkins (52 OVR)

The Rams would LOVE to be able to select Killings, as they currently are sitting in a position where they have an elite defense, but a mediocre offense. They are paying a TON of money to Jared Goff, to put up pedestrian numbers. The problem? They don't have a 1st round pick due to the Jalen Ramsey trade. They won't be able to put a package together to move up to #1, and Eikim will never entertain a trade without staying in the S62 draft.

New Orleans Saints (6-8)

Quarterbacks on Roster - Drew Brees (93 OVR), Jameis Winston (76 OVR), Taysom Hill (64 OVR)

Drew Brees is fully expected to retire after this season, and Jameis Winston is due a new contract. Taysom Hill is not the future, and will likely be sent packing this offseason. With an elite young quarterback prospect, with the dual threat capabilities he has, the duo of him and Kamara would be potentially lethal. The problem is, the Saints are projected to be picking somewhere between 18-21, and would need to mortgage that pick, their future 1st, and potentially the S64 1st as well. I'm not sure if that would even do it for Eikim, but Coach Spencer would be mortgaging three years of cheap talent for a shot at Killings. I don't see how this works.

Washington Football Team (9-5)

Quarterbacks on Roster - Dwayne Haskins (73 OVR), Marcus Mariota (70 OVR), Kyle Allen (67 OVR)

Similar issue to the Saints, as Washington is slotted to have the 24th overall pick. I don't see any scenario in which the Vikings drop from 1 to 24, and are willing to take future 1sts from a team that would only get better with the presence of Killings on the roster. Coach Snyder will absolutely kick the tires, but this fit won't work.

San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Quarterbacks on Roster - Jimmy Garoppolo (84 OVR), Nick Mullens (67 OVR)

The 49ers are in a similar situation as the Vikings, with an average quarterback that is making a lot of money. Jimmy G's contract has two years remaining, and with a pedestrian 21/19 TD/INT ratio, the 49ers could use the upgrade. Killings could be perfect for this offense, but similar to New Orleans/Washington, the 49ers are projected to be in the 20's for their pick. I don't see a scenario (outisde of 3 years worth of 1sts) that the 49ers can convince the Vikings to move from 1 to 26, and even then it will be difficult.

Tennessee Titans (10-4)

Quarterbacks on Roster - Ryan Tannehill (80 OVR), Mason Rudolph (65 OVR), Josh Love (52 OVR), Kevin Davidson (51 OVR)

Getting repetitive, but for a team I anticipate to at least make the AFC Championship Game, there is no likely scenario in which the Vikings move from 1 to 29-32. I just don't see it, unless the Titans throw in S63 1st, S64 1st, and more. Once again, I think that moves the needle for Eikim, but will Roc do it? It's so much future capital for one player. He would fit well here, with Ryan Tannehill and the offense currently sitting at 32nd in passing yards. This team has proven they don't need an elite quarterback to win, so they are almost in the 'No Fit' category for me.

The Favorites

These are my most likely teams to acquire Kamryn Killings.

Minnesota Vikings (2-12) - Projected Pick - #1 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Kirk Cousins (83 OVR), Alex Smith (67 OVR), Nate Stanley (53 OVR), Jake Browning (53 OVR)

Right now, the Vikings have the easiest path to Kamryn Killings. 

They currently sit at 2-12, the only 2 win team in the league with the Bengals foolishly winning a third game (tank already!!), and now hold all the cards in the Killings sweepstakes. With two games remaining, against New Orleans and Detroit, I give the Vikings a very high chance to secure the top pick.

Kirk Cousins is currently under contract for two more seasons, at astronomical cap hits of $31 million and $45 million. He currently has thrown 12 touchdowns to 32 interceptions, helping the Vikings secure a bottom 5 offense in every category. 

Is Kamryn Killings the savior? I am not so sure. I think the Vikings roster is talented, with pieces like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith around Killings, but how much of these offensive woes are on Coach Eikim, not just Cousins?

The Vikings will receive trade offers for the right to select Killings, and it has been leaked that they are asking for a minimum of 3 first rounds picks in the deal. This is a ton for a single player, but if the right offer came along, will the Vikings take the opportunity? I think so.

From a pure quarterback standpoint, the fit is here. A solid roster, an aging, expensive quarterback, and a division where the right team could challenge Green Bay. I think the Vikings are showing me they are far enough away from competing that the extra assets may be worth it, instead of Killings.

FINAL VERDICT: Trade the pick, but cross your fingers Killings krumbles.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) - Projected Pick - #12 & #13 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Gardner Minshew (73 OVR), Josh Dobbs (64 OVR), Jake Luton (63 OVR)

This is the team that would scare me the most if I were the Colts, who I know covet Killings. Jacksonville holds the highest pair of 1st rounders in the draft, as the Jets currently hold 16 and 25, and the Broncos hold 18 and 28. 

I have no doubt that if the Jaguars offered 12, 13, a future 1, and maybe more, the Vikings would do it. This would give Jacksonville the quarterback upgrade they have been open about desiring, and would give Minnesota the capital they think they deserve. Holding 12 and 13 gives them ammo to move all over this draft, or give them two of the best prospects in the draft.

Jacksonville has proven they can compete with medicore quarterback play, adding Killings to this roster would push them high in my AFC South rankings, maybe even to #2. Killings would be the 2nd best quarterback in the division the day the selection is made.

FINAL VERDICT: This is my favorite scenario for both teams. #KillingsToDuval

New York Giants (3-11) - Projected Pick - #4 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Daniel Jones (73 OVR), Colt McCoy (62 OVR)

The old saying, that I really believe in, is if you don't have a quarterback, you do everything to get one. Daniel Jones is still 23 years old, and has some potential, but he is no Kamryn Killings. This is very reminiscent to me of the Rosen/Murray situation. A team will take Daniel Jones for a draft pick, while the Giants can move up to select Killings.

Here is the problem, they sit at 4th overall. Currenty in my projection, they will have to leap from 4 to 1, to get Killings, jumping Cincinnati and Miami. I actually considered Cincy and Miami to look at Killings, but without the ability to trade Burrow/Tua for another year, I opted to take them off the list entirely.

So, can the Giants do enough to move from 4 to 1? They would have to include #4, which entices Minnesota. This is the best asset in the draft that they could get, as I expect Ciny and Miami to stay at 2/3. I think the package that could entice Minnesota is #4, S62 2nd (which would be 36), S63 1st, and S63 2nd. 

The Vikings would move down 3 spots, and acquire the Giants future 1 + 2, a team that most project to finish last in the NFC East, despite the addition of Killings. The Giants would secure a franchise quarterback, giving them a chance to develop him and compete for the NFC East, although they would miss those 3 extra picks, as this roster has plenty of holes.

FINAL VERDICT: For the Giants, if Killings is the answer, you do it. For the Vikings, you sprint to the podium to complete this trade.

New York Jets (9-5) - Projected Pick - #16 & #25 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Sam Darnold (78 OVR), Joe Flacco (70 OVR), James Morgan (61 OVR)

Yep, I think this is a real shot.

Killings is better than Sam Darnold, and will be an immediate upgrade over any signal caller on this roster. The Jets have a pair of 1st round picks this year from Seattle for the Jamal Adams trade, AND a pair of 1st round picks next year, giving them four 1sts in two years. 

They also have Kansas City's 2nd this year. They have 5 very valuable assets here. 

The issue? Will Eikim want to move down from 1 to 16, or even lower? I doubt it, which is why I think the Jets are the lowest of the favorites. If anyone is going to do everything in their power to work it out, it is Moji. He has proven to wheel and deal with the best of them, but I think the success of Seattle and New York has hurt his chances of moving to 1.

Now, if he dangled all four of the 1's, how could Eikim say no? Do I think that trade is offered? Probably not.

FINAL VERDICT: Moji likely won't go to the level needed for Eikim to say yes.

The Favorites with Snags

All of these teams in this tier are strong considerations to land Karmyn Killings, but all have a major roadblock ahead of them.

Indianapolis Colts (6-8) - Projected Pick - #14 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Phillip Rivers (82 OVR), Jacob Eason (64 OVR)

This organization has been very vocal about their desire for Kamryn Killings, or at least moving on from the current situation they are in. Rivers is going to depart the Colts either way, unless Ricky Chapstick has a change of heart and wants to retain his services (very unlikely).

The Colts are going to do everything they can to negotiate their way up, but I don't see how it works. They will be sitting in the mid-teens, and have no 2nd round pick thanks to the A.J. Green trade. 

They could offer 14, their future 1st and 2nd, and maybe even their S64 1st? 

So if you're the Vikings, do you take that deal? Despite the shortcomings the Colts faced this year, I think it's safe to say they will improve, right? With Killings, Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman, the Colts would have the best young trio of offensive weapons in the AFC South. I would give them the highest odds to challenge the Titans for the division. The Vikings would be moving from 1 to 14, then banking on the Colts continuing to be mediocre.

The Colts will do everything to make this work, but I think they will be overshadowed by teams with more assets.

Atlanta Falcons (5-10) - Projected Pick - #8 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Matt Ryan (87 OVR), Jacoby Brissett (71 OVR), Blake Bortles (65 OVR)

Now this is my most unlikely of the favorites, but don't be surprised. Kelly is a great developer of talent, and bringing Killings into an offense with Gurley, Julio, Ridley...the sky is the limit. The problem is that they sit at 8th overall, and do not have an extra 1st this year to compete with Jacksonville, or to compete with 4th overall like the Giants do.

If the Falcons are to make an offer, they will be ranked lower on the Vikings' list based on the fact that they are more likely to succeed than the Giants, Jaguars, etc. 

Their offer would have to include 8, a S63 1st, and likely their S64 1st. 

I think the Vikings would consider it, but look for options elsewhere. I think the Falcons will also consider it, but Kelly does not seem to be the type of general manager who would give up that many assets.

Detroit Lions (3-11) - Projected Pick - #5 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Matthew Stafford (83 OVR), Chase Daniel (63 OVR), Deshone Kizer (62 OVR)

How much does Coach RFox believe that a quarterback upgrade is the difference between third in the NFC North, and 1st? If they are ready to move on from Matthew Stafford, a legitimate offer could be made with the 5th overall pick, and future draft capital.

The problem? The Vikings will likely not complete a trade to guarantee Kamryn Killings remains in the NFC North. Even if the Lions give the Vikings 5, their 2nd, and future choices, do the Vikings want to face Kamryn Killings twice a year for the cycle? I don't think so.

Unless the Lions truly mortgage their future, I don't see any scenario that the Vikings will allow them to have this pick.

Chicago Bears (6-8) - Projected Pick - #9 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Mitch Trubisky (73 OVR), Nick Foles (72 OVR)

One of the worst quarterback rooms in the league, they would love to package picks to move up to 1. Once again, the Vikings are not making a trade with a team inside the NFC North, and I doubt Beat's ability to work out a trade to get there anyways.

After Some Convincing, You Can Make a Case

New England Patriots (4-10) - Projected Pick - #7 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Cam Newton (78 OVR), Jarrett Stidham (64 OVR), Tim Boyle (60 OVR)

If the Patriots are willing to deal, I think they will skyrocket up this list. It all depends if Glenn is willing to play ball. This front office has rarely shown initiative to make moves, until recently, shipping out two years of 2nd round picks for defensive lineman.

And right there is the issue, the Patriots traded away a S62 2nd, 4th, and S63 2nd for Solomon Thomas and Jonathan Allen. They have 1st rounders still, but with no 2nds for two years, that will make it very difficult to make a deal.

If Glenn sent an offer involving his S62, S63, and S64 1st rounders, Eikim has to listen. Glenn's track record would put those 1st rounders at least top ten each year. But without second rounders, it will be tough.

Cleveland Browns (6-8) - Projected Pick - #10 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Baker Mayfield (81 OVR), Case Keenum (69 OVR)

This would take some serious work from Cleveland, but I think they are at least in play. Coach Prewitt has openly slandered Baker Mayfield for his play, and the amount of turnovers they have committed is at least partly to blame on him. Mayfield has 2 years remaining on his rookie deal, where Prewitt would then need to make a decision to sign him.

If you do trade from 10 to 1, and secure Killings, you can then trade the last two years of Mayfield's contract elsewhere. Jacksonville, Indy, perhaps? The Browns would need to surrender at least three 1sts to get it done, but there is a path to a trade here.

The mobility of Killings would also help with moonwalks, so there's that...

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) - Projected Pick - #17 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Ben Roethlisberger (81 OVR), Jake Fromm (67 OVR), Tyler Huntley (59 OVR)

The Steelers have already started rolling with Jake Fromm, but is he truly the quarterback of the future?

Despite a high amount of turnovers, Fromm has played pretty well, but he does need to be re-signed. 

The problem here, is the Steelers won't have a high enough pick to entice the Vikings, but their future assets are very valuable. Nobody knows how King John will continue to do, will he improve? If Eikim believes that he won't, the Steelers are a player in the Killings sweepstakes, but I think the combo of Fromm/the low pick keeps them out of it.

Complete Wild Cards

These are teams that have a fit, and could surprise everyone with a splashy move to get to 1.

Denver Broncos (11-3) - Projected Pick - #18 & 28 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Drew Lock (76 OVR), Ryan Fitzpatrick (74 OVR), Tyree Jackson (59 OVR)

Now this one is interesting, as the Broncos do have a pair of 1st round picks, although they are both projected to be late in the draft. Man, they could have had Miami's pick.....

This all hinges on the development of Drew Lock, if the Broncos feel his development after Season 62 was worth it, they'll likely keep his cheap deal, and use these 1sts to attack other areas of need. If not, buckle up, because I could see them at least kicking the tires on this.

It is not in Astin's character to sacrifice so many assets, but the ability to develop Kamryn Killings is such a huge chip. I don't think Eikim will trade with Astin, unless he is getting the farm in return, and it would require at least 3-4 1st round picks.

Las Vegas Raiders (9-5) - Projected Pick - #23 Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Derek Carr (80 OVR), Devlin Hodges (60 OVR)

Okay, so first thing, I don't think Eikim moves from 1 to 23. So this almost completely nixes this trade for me.

I think if Tiko thinks that Killings is the final piece of the puzzle (which is likely), he will do everything it takes to splash. He has splashed on a quarterback before, and could do it again.

I don't expect this at all, and actually it's pretty improbable, but don't count them out completely.

Carolina Panthers (4-10) - Projected Pick - 6th Overall

Quarterbacks on Roster - Teddy Bridgewater (77 OVR), Will Grier (64 OVR), P.J. Walker (61 OVR)

The fit is here, the asset of the 6th overall pick is here, but I don't see Malik doing this move. I think he is content with Teddy for the time being, while he continues to add pieces to this team.

The defense is very young, and lacking star power. The offense needs upgrades on the offensive line.

I think he stays the course, and uses that 6th overall pick for the best non-QB player available, but I am not counting him out to surprise everyone.