Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #7
by adelfish | 4 years ago | 1 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #7
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
COVERED TEAMS: Lions, Jaguars, Bengals, Patriots, Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Steelers, Panthers, Raiders, Browns, Texans, Jets, Cardinals, Falcons, Bills, Washington Football Team, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts
3 more teams remain in the divisional round to rank, then we are on to our final four. This was a controversial choice for me, as this user could easily rank at #1, but with the way this roster is currently laid out, I find it difficult for him to make it all the way through the gauntlet of a conference in his first year.
#7 - Denver Broncos (Astin)
(12-4 Projected Record)
3rd Seed, Loss in Divisional Round
What are the odds that Astin doesn't read the whole blog before he starts furiously typing in the discord? Anything less than 1 to him is an insult, but in the first season of a cycle, nothing is guaranteed, especially when roster talent is inferior.
Astin deserves any benefit of the doubt when it comes to his abilities, he has won everywhere he has gone since he took over Baltimore three cycles ago, winning there, Carolina, and Los Angeles. Now he heads to Denver, a team that was considered a sexy pick going into the coaching carousel.
Is Denver good? That is the question we will be attempting to answer throughout this preview, and how much of this roster is in Astin's future? He is a general manager that loves to shape the team in the image of what he likes to do, and nobody is safe.
One Big Question
Finding new ways to add to his resume as the greatest to ever play in the league, Coach Astin heads to Denver to bring glory back to the Broncos. Our only question, is Drew Lock going to be the quarterback to take them to the Super Bowl?
Drew Lock had a very interesting second half of his rookie season, but did he do enough to earn the right to be the full time starter in Denver, and worthy of the development that Astin can provide? I'm not so sure, although I think that due to the current situation with Lock, Jeff Driskel, and Brett Rypien, that the decision has to be Lock.
I think that Astin looks for a replacement quickly. If anyone knows about maximizing the development window, it's him. I do expect that he will look in the first draft to find a Lock replacement, or at least competition. Do not count him out in a trade, with names like Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, and others on the block, you can bet he will be combing the market.
Personally I do not think the Broncos are equipped enough to overcome the better opponents in the AFC, even with Astin at the helm. If he does, I will eat crow, but Astin's success historically comes in the middle to end of a cycle, after he has had a couple years to get his fingerprints on the roster. With that being said, I do not think Lock will be the quarterback when Astin eventually hoists a trophy.
One Big Schedule Issue
I actually have Astin starting 0-1, with a loss in the opener to the Tennessee Titans. I think they matchup really poorly with Tennesee, and Roc is going to be able to grind away a win with a veteran team against Denver's inexperienced offense. After that? No worries.
The Broncos do have some tough matchups in their first 8 games, against Tampa Bay, the Jets, the Dolphins, and the Chiefs - but I have them winning all of those matchups.
Of the 4 losses I gave to Denver, two of them come within the division, as I forsee the Chargers and Chiefs splitting with them. I don't see Denver sweeping anyone in the division outside of Las Vegas, and the fourth loss comes to Atlanta. Yes, I know Kelly is coming off a hiatus, but do you really think he is going to let Astin beat him in his first rematch with him?
The ceiling for this team is 14 wins, but I do give him that Week 1 loss, along with the shocker against Kelly.
Reasons for Optimism
Starting on the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos have pretty incredible depth at the running back position. Melvin Gordon just signed a two year deal to join the backfield, with the already explosive Phillip Lindsay and bellcow Royce Freeman. I expect a one-two punch of Gordon and Lindsay throughout the year.
I expect the Broncos to spend a lot of time in 3 WR personnel with 1 TE, mostly due to the draft they just had. Courtland Sutton broke out for Denver last year, finishing as one of the best receivers in football. Joining him are Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, the 1st and 2nd round picks Denver made this April. Noah Fant is at tight end, the former 1st rounder wo is athletic as they come.
One thing we know about this offense is that it is high-flying.
The Broncos spent a pretty penny to add Graham Glasgow in free agency, but he is an above average guard in this league, and I am very interested to see how Astin develops 3rd round rookie center Lloyd Cushenberry III, who could be his cycle-long center if things go well.
Defensively Denver is very solid, and it starts up front with the pass rush duo of Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. These two are locked in together for the next two years, and form one of the fiercest rush combinations in football. Along the defensive line is more talent, with recently acquired Jurrell Casey and the improving Shelby Harris and Mike Purcell. This is a surprisingly deep group.
At linebacker Todd Davis has been steady for Denver for years, while second year Alexander Johnson broke out and had a fantastic year, becoming one of the best run defenders in the leauge, albeit a small sample size.
A.J. Bouye was brought over via trade to soften the loss of Chris Harris in free agency, but the safeties are where this secondary makes their money. Justin Simmons is blossoming into one of the best safeties in football, while the veteran Kareem Jackson has been terrific for Denver since they acquired him. It will not be easy to run on this team.
Reasons for Negativity
Sadly, Drew Lock belongs here for me right now. Although he flashed to end the season last year in Denver, there is a lot going against him. The analytics do not support him being a promising starter this year, while the ever-important rookie season of development is also lost. Lock only has a handful of games under his belt, and has to compete in a division with Mahomes, Carr, and rookie Justin Herbert.
The Broncos have the worst quarterback situation in the division, with the closest to them being the Raiders and their hodge-podge of Carr and Mariota. Astin is the right man to remedy this situation, but we have seen him struggle initially with inferior quarterback play.
Leaning on the run game is important, but the offensive line is shaky overall. Garrett Bolles is famous for being a turnstyle at the position, and Ja'waun James is overpaid and overmatched at right tackle, James has 3 more years at $13+ million left on his terrible contract. Fixing this situation is key for the way the Broncos want to play.
Defensively, outside of Bouye, the cornerback situation isn't great. Isaac Yiadom will be competing for snaps alongside Bryce Callahan who is coming off an injury plagued 2019. Another position group to address, thankfully those safeties will help soften some of the big plays Denver will likely give up.
A lot of expiring contracts on both the offensive and defensive lines, and Justin Simmons are coming this offseason, the Broncos are projected to be sitting at about $21 million in cap. Some tough decisions to be made, and Astin will really have to wait until Season 64 before a lot of money comes off the books.
Last Word
Astin is currently the best coach/general manager combination in the league, and will win a Super Bowl this cycle at some point. I do not believe this season will be it, and I think once he gets to the AFC playoffs, the lack of talent at key spots on this roster will show. If this was a 'Cycle Power Rankings' he would be at #1.
Inexperience at wide receiver will be big this year, although the future is extremely bright with the trio of Sutton, Jeudy, and Hamler. Decisions in the next two years will need to be made about the pass rush, the quarterback, and the secondary. Not to mention they will have to replace their left tackle.
A lot of work to be done, but is there anyone more trustworthy to take care of it? Don't call this a lost season, he will still win the AFC West. But this quarterback-coach fit is not for long, and I am very excited to see how he fills that position.