Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #12
by adelfish | 4 years ago | 0 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #12
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
COVERED TEAMS: Lions, Jaguars, Bengals, Patriots, Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Steelers, Panthers, Raiders, Browns, Texans, Jets, Cardinals
20 teams down, 12 to go. If you haven't been listed yet, congratulations! You are officially a contender, and are likely to be an interesting story, at least in the first year of the cycle.
Think about this, Week 1 of Red Zone kicks off in 25 days...absolute insanity.
#12 - Buffalo Bills (JP)
(10-6 Projected Record)
4th Seed, Loss in Wild Card Round
JP has been asking for weeks where he is going to fall, and I think 12 is very high for what he initially expected, because he knows I love to give him a hard time.
If anything, he should be thrilled with this projection. 10 wins, and an AFC East division title in the same division as Moji and Black Magic? C'mon Adel, are you hitting the bottle again?
Well, this team is very talented, and JP is an ever-improving user in Red Zone, continuing to flirt with deep playoff success with each following cycle. In the AFC East, with a Buffalo roster that is young and talented, is this finally the year that he gets over the hump? Let's find out.
One Big Question
With high expectations in a new city, can Coach Panos and the Bills take advantage of their roster superiority in the AFC East, or will we see them play second fiddle to the Jets?
When I wrote this question, I didn't even factor in that the Bills could be playing second fiddle to the Dolphins as well, but that is further down the road as per my prediction. #DisrespectTour
Realistically, based on where the Patriots are in terms of their coaching staff, and where the Dolphins are as an organization, the team that is the biggest threat to the Bills is Coach Moji and his Jets, and I've already outlined in previous entries about why that is very unlikely.
The Bills are talented seemingly everywhere on their roster. Young quarterback Josh Allen is still a question mark, but provides a ton of upside. They added Stefon Diggs to their receiving core. Guys like Ed Oliver and Tre'davious White on defense, with an elite safety duo. There is so much to like about the Bills.
How long will it last? I hate to be 'that guy', but I gave the Bills the division in Season 62 kind of by default based on roster, but in my projection the Jets finish 1 game back. This is by no means a gimme - the Bills will have to earn 10 wins to do this, and I think they will struggle at times throughout the season.
As far as past this season...once Moji and Black Magic start building those teams, JP will have his work cut out for him. This is arguably the best division he has been in, so keeping pace with two former champions will keep him on his toes.
One Big Schedule Issue
As the trend seems to be with teams in this range, I just struggle with seeing how the Bills deal with teams I project to win 12+ games. I have them going 2-5 against teams with winning records this season.
Their toughest opponents throuhgout Season 62 are the Jets 2x, the AFC West (Astin, Spittah, IJ, Tiko), the NFC West (Ramesu, Jim, Sin, Trent), and the Titans. Of those 11 games, I have the Bills winning 5 of those (Jets 2x, Cardinals, Seahawks, Raiders).
In the division I have them going 6-0, the superior talent is going to win them those games, but I think all 6 of the games will be slugfests, especially against New England's defense.
Overall, I think Buffalo is a fringe second round team, but the team I have beating them in the Wild Card Round is just a team I trust more at this stage.
Reasons for Optimism
I really struggled with listing this player under the optimism category, but you have to be optimistic about the future of rocket-arm Josh Allen at quarterback, he has a ton of upside, is still 24 years old, and is very athletic. If JP can continue to develop him the right way, Allen could grow into one of the best quarterbacks in football, with that combination of deep arm and ability to make plays with his legs.
The weapons have vastly improved around Allen, starting with the running backs. The combination of Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss, a duo that should grow together into a formidable one-two punch. The receivers upgraded as well, with the trade for Stefon Diggs in the offseason, who is the #1 wideout that Josh Allen needed, pairing him with speedster John Brown and slot receiver Cole Beasley, a favorite of AFC East rival Mike Mojica.
The offensive line is a work in progress, there are a few intriguing pieces here, most notably left tackle Dion Dawkins, who has been an above-average starter his whole career. They recently brought in Brian Winters for stability at right guard, and Mitch Morse is solid at center.
Defensively is where the Bills will make their money, starting with the big man in the middle, Ed Oliver. Oliver was taken in the first round last season, and lived up the billing as a run stuffer in his rookie year. He joined pass rushers Trent Murphy and Jerry Hughes on a talented defensive line.
The 22 year old Tremaine Edmunds is a very intriguing player, extremely young to be a third year pro, he is one of the better run defenders at his position, and should be the cycle middle linebacker for the Bills.
I love cornerback Tre'davious White, but the depth around him is good too. Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson are extremely underrated (and cheap!), while veteran Josh Norman joins on a 1 year deal. Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are two of the best in the business, and provide stability in the back end for Buffalo.
Reasons for Negativity
So let's go all the way back to the beginning, with Josh Allen. Yes, the rare positive/negative player. One thing that is constant with Allen, and most of Buffalo's roster, is the word 'potential', or the word 'upside'. A lot of Buffalo's roster has that, not a ton of proven talent. Allen is the best example, as we know he has a great arm and can run around, but can he be a quality starting quarterback for a playoff team? I'm not so sure.
Coach Panos is going to devote a lot of time and effort into making sure they find out if Allen is the guy, and they'll need to find out soon. Allen has two years remaining on his deal, and will likely be looking for a big extension. My thoughts? Trade him. Someone will be enticed enough with that big arm to move a high value pick for him.
Outside of Stefon Diggs, who strikes fear into opponents? John Brown is a burner, but is inconsistent. The tight end situation needs to be rebuilt, as guys like Tyler Kroft are very overpaid for the role they bring to the team. I like Cole Beasley the player, but Cole Beasley the contract is tough to swallow, the Bills owe him $21 million over the next 3 seasons.
The o-line still needs work, as two of the Bills starters in Quinton Spain and Cody Ford should not be starting, and Brian Winters is borderline. Allen will have to navigate the pocket to overcome these deficiencies.
Defensively, I worry about age. The entire defensive line outisde of Ed Oliver is over the age of 30, and the Bills just gave Mario Addison a horrible contract, paying him $30 million over the next 3 years. I do like the contract given to the underrated Quinton Jefferson from Seattle, but he is still unproven.
Outisde of Edmunds, the Bills need to upgrade at linebacker. Matt Milano and A.J. Klein will be playing meaningful snaps this season, and that will need to change going forward.
Last Word
Are the Bills good? Yes. Are they good enough to win a Super Bowl? No.
There is just something about this roster that is missing. Yes, the Diggs trade gives them a legit threat on offense that they haven't had in years, but it still feels like a unit that will constantly sputter. I am not a big fan of Josh Allen, but with the right guidance under Coach Panos, he could really grow into a true threat in this league.
Defensively, the Bills are stout, but do they have that edge rusher who can change a game? I love the potential of Tre'davious White, Tremaine Edmunds, and Ed Oliver. This is the group of the future for Buffalo's defense, but they just seem to be a big time difference maker away. Like a splashy free agent, or an elite pass rusher in the draft.
The Bills are the best team in the AFC East, and if JP can continue to build this team the right way, they will remain there. The Bills free up almost $40 million in cap next offseason, continuing to spend that wisely will keep Buffalo in playoff contention.