Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #13
by adelfish | 5 years ago | 0 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #13
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
COVERED TEAMS: Lions, Jaguars, Bengals, Patriots, Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Steelers, Panthers, Raiders, Browns, Texans, Jets, Cardinals
The postseason preview continues as we move into lucky number 13, with the Cardinals already knocked out in the first round. Where is the time going, it is already August 4th...this summer has truly flown by in the year of COVID.
In a few weeks we will all be booting up Madden, spending some MUT coins, and playing squads online...but until then, we keep the preview train full steam ahead.
#13 - Atlanta Falcons (Kelly)
(8-8 Projected Record)
6th Seed, Loss in Wild Card Round
*Piano starts*
'You know I'm a dreamer, but my heart's of gold, I had to run away high, so I wouldn't come home low'
*Kelly rides off into the sunset on his beautiful, white stallion*
'Just when things went right, it doesn't mean they were always wrong, just take this song, and you'll never feel left all alone...'
*Red Zone weeps, as a music video montage of us all growing up, getting older*
*It is 2020. Drum beat intensifies, Red Zone looks to the horizon, and sees that same white stallion*
'I'm on my way....I'm on my way...home sweet home....'
I don't know if Kelly is a Motley Crue fan, but when I thought of him returning to Red Zone, I thought of that song. Maybe if my current line of work doesn't cut it for me, I can be a creative consultant in the music video industry?
Kelly makes his triumphant return to the league after a long hiatus, inking a cycle long contract with the Atlanta Falcons, joining a very interesting division. This division is full of storylines; the return of Malik, Spencer in Nawlins, and Tauph and Tompa Brady. With personal friend and swinger Cory Astin already saying that Kelly is going to struggle, do we have him ranked too high?
Let's take a deep dive into the state of this roster, but if there is one thing we know, is that Red Zone veterans usually take some time to get reacclimated to the league. Can Kelly not only get back to where he was as a coach, but swallow his pride and deal with the lack of leadership at the top? Let's find out.
One Big Question
With one of the most expensive and older rosters in football locked in for the forseeable future, can Coach Honeycutt get reacclimated fast enough to take advantage of the talent?
Obviously the Falcons roster has talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They are set at the quarterback spot with Matt Ryan for at least a few more seasons, wide receiver with the duo of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridely, and even the addition of Todd Gurley at running back provides plenty of intrigue.
Defensively, with pieces like Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones, Keanu Neal...there are certainly players to be excited about on both sides. The Falcons are currently ranked in the top five of oldest rosters in the league, and top five in most cap committed to their players.
Ryan is 35 years old, and is locked in for 4 more years under contract, exceeding $40 million per year in two of those seasons. Jones is 31, and locked in for 4 more years as well. 28 year old left tackle Jake Matthews has a massive 4 year extension...you are starting to see a pattern.
Yes, there are very talented players here, but some really expensive contracts. Flexibility will not exist for some time, as the cap for the Falcons actually increases by $20 million from Season 62 to 63, due to the Ryan extension.
If Kelly hadn't left the league, I would be way more excited about this fit for him - getting a veteran team, with elite pieces scattered across the roster. He could go all-in for one to two seasons before blowing it up and restructuring the finances of the team, but why am I worried that he is going to waste the first couple seasons playing catch up?
One Big Schedule Issue
Due to the sheer amount of talent on offense, I tilt some games in Atlanta's favor that I would consider 'either-or' games. The 8-8 finish is due to the 2-4 record I have Atlanta going against teams with projected winning records.
Playing the AFC West (Tiko, Astin, Spittah, IJ), Tauph 2x, Lefty, WG, Malik 2x...that is not easy by any means for a seasoned vet, let alone a returning coach. The Falcons should take care of business against the rest of the NFC North, and the Saints, but I just don't see how a winning record is possible with those opponents I just mentioned.
With the expanded playoff format, the Falcons get into the 6th seed at 8-8, due to the 8-8 Cardinals behind them, then the 8th placed Panthers at 6-10 in the conferece. Based on my projection, the Falcons limp into the playoffs, as opposed to fighting for that 6th seed. In my projection, starting in Week 12, I actually have them finishing 1-4 to end the season, before falling in the playoffs. Their final stretch gets really difficult (Saints, Chargers, Bucs 2x, Chiefs).
Reasons for Optimism
Since the MVP season in 2016, Matt Ryan has slightly regressed each season, but he is still a quarterback to feel confident in leading your franchise. We already discussed the cap hits for his contract, but with Ryan, there is stability and serious talent at the quarterback position.
The Rams admitted their mistake with Todd Gurley and released him, but their loss is Atlanta's gain, as the Falcons get a talented player at a low-risk, high-reward contract of 1 year for $5 million. Gurley should get back to being a workhorse in the Honeycutt offense, and can fight to earn an extension.
Obviously the weapons around Ryan are elite, with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. The Falcons lack depth at the wide receiver position, but did trade a 2nd round pick for tight end Hayden Hurst, who was simply an odd man out in Baltimore. He has some upside, and could really breakout with this offense.
The offensive line has been solid, with Jake Matthews and Alex Mack as the veteran presence, Mack still considered one of the best centers in football, while youngsters and former 1st round picks Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary are still developing (guard and right tackle) into their roles. The only real weak spot here is at left guard.
The Falcons front seven has improved as of late, with stud defensive tackle Grady Jarrett manning the middle, and recently signed Dante Fowler coming in to rush off the edge. They pair Fowler with speedster Takk McKinley in hopes this will be their pass rush duo of the future.
Deion Jones is one of the most athletic linebackers in football, and he quarterbacks this defense. He will be very important for Kelly in stopping the run, and covering athletic tight ends downfield.
The secondary is in a rebuild with the departure of Desmond Trufant, but the selection of A.J. Terrell in the 1st round this year can help speed up that process. There is no doubt Terrell will be a guy Kelly focuses on developing, but will be asissted by the veteran safeties of Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal, who should help stabilize this young secondary.
Reasons for Negativity
I've already alluded to how this cap situation gets worse in Season 63 (by $20 million), but let's take a deeper look.
Ryan's cap hit jumps from $18 million to $40 million due to a contract extension he received, and the Falcons will be in the negative for cap room. Some of the names that will need extension are Todd Gurley, Alex Mack, Takk McKinley, and Keanu Neal. Those are four huge pieces, not to mention the amount of backups that are expiring. The Falcons will have to find a way to retain these players with limited cap.
The amount of money committed to starters also leads to thin depth. At wide receiver, the next wideout on the depth chart after Jones and Ridley is Laquon Treadwell. After Hayden Hurst at tight end, you get Khari Lee. After Todd Gurley, it is Ito Smith. I'm not saying you need to be deep everywhere, but if there are any injuries to skill position guys, the Falcons offense will come to a halt.
I mentioned I really like the Falcons upside at offensive line, except for the horrific James Carpenter contract, who is making $17 million over the next three seasons at left guard. This should be an easy decision for Kelly to move off of, as Carpenter has been hopping around the league for awhile now.
The defense is where the Falcons really see their lack of depth, and even impact starters. On the defensive line, there is no potential for pass rush rotation, as Fowler and McKinley are the only two talented edge rushers on roster. Guys like Charles Harris and John Cominsky aren't striking fear into opposing offenses.
At the linebacker spot, outside of Jones it's a nightmare. Deone Bucannon and LaRoy Reynolds are currently slotted as starters at OLB, both of whom should be backups at this point of their careers. There is no depth or exciting young players behind them, so this position must be improved next offseason.
Same goes for the secondary, as Terrell is the future of this group, there is little upside elsewhere. Isaiah Oliver has struggled to live up to his potential, and then you have veterans like Darqueze Dennard and Blidi Wreh-Wilson to fill in some snaps. Not very exciting.
Last Word
On paper, I like the Falcons a lot. They have some really fun pieces on offense that could catapult this passing attack into the conversation of the best in the league, along with a redemption story in Todd Gurley to balance it. A good offensive line that is locked in together for the most part, then a rebuilding defense that has some really good veterans in place already.
I don't love the fit of Kelly and the Falcons, as this team is ready to win now. Can the Falcons knock off the Buccaneers? I don't think so, and I certainly don't think Kelly will be ready to compete with the upper tiered NFC teams. Give him time to get back to his old self, but out of the gate the Falcons will struggle.
I think when Kelly starts to mold this team into his image, with a new quarterback and a better defense, is where we will see the Falcons ascend. Right now with their financial issues and lack of depth, they seem held together with tape. This is one of the pairings I am really excited to see how it looks in three to four seasons.