Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #16
by adelfish | 5 years ago | 0 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #16
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
COVERED TEAMS: Lions, Jaguars, Bengals, Patriots, Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Steelers, Panthers, Raiders, Browns
A mediocre 80's rocker once said 'We're halfway there, WHOAAAAAA livin' on a prayer...'. Yeah, I'm a big Motley Crue guy as well.
But yes, we are officially halfway, and you all doubted me! The best part, we are getting to the playoff teams! We have two more non-playoff teams (including this one) before we get into the 14 playoff teams, and yes, I do have to keep reminding myself there are 14.
Anyway, on to #16....
#16 - Houston Texans (Metal)
(9-7 Projected Record)
The one thing that was annoying about preparing to write about the Texans, is they hardly did anything in the offseason! Seriously, not one interesting transaction or storyline...
Now that we have that shameless attempt at a joke out of the way, it's time to dive into one of the most interesting situations in football. Coach Metal returned to Red Zone after a brief hiatus, to the Oakland (now Vegas) Raiders, and had some success. We all remember Metal for the 3 straight titles he won in Philadelphia, but that dominance seems so far away now.
In Houston he is going to have his hands full. The Texans have a legitimate superstar at quarterback, a star at left tackle, and a star pass rusher. Those are the three most important positions in the league, but the depth this roster lacks is alarming.
I could go on and on in the intro about this roster, but let's not spoil it just yet.
One Big Question
With a roster in dire straits, Coach Metal makes his way to Houston to right the ship. With a major building block in Deshaun Watson, can he be the piece that holds together a crumbling roster?
You'd probably think I'm being too harsh about this roster status, but when you really dive into the pieces on the offense and defense, you'd see how much of the burden that Watson has to carry on his shoulders for this team to find success.
Watson is under contract for two more seasons at pennies, a total of $30 million owed over the next two campaigns. After this, a tag or long-term deal will be due, but one that should be easily given, he is the franchise player and the reason for all current success. Utilizing this window on a rookie contract should be the priority for the Texans, but the current state of the roster will make this difficult.
Going from Season 62 to 63, the Texans free up a grand total of $7 million in cap, with important pieces like Will Fuller and Zach Cunningham needing extensions. The following offseason major relief is coming for the Watson deal, but the Texans have handcuffed themselves to so many poor, long-term deals.
Just to name a few - David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Brandon Dunn, Bradley Roby, Eric Murray...yes, those are just a few. There are more we will discuss.
Why am I going into these contracts and numbers? These contracts have made it so the Texans cannot be flexible during a time where they should be taking advantage of Watson's bargain deal. Metal will need to find a way to free up money on this roster, so when Watson's deal comes around, they have the right pieces in place to be able to keep a core together.
Oh, did I forget to mention they traded a bunch of picks away?
One Big Schedule Issue
The start to Houston's season is as brutal as I've seen, opening with Kansas City and Baltimore back to back is as tough a start as there is in the league. Surviving that would be impressive, but then to have to play Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Green Bay in 4 of their next 5 games? Yikes.
I have them going 2-4 in the AFC South, having to go against Indianapolis and Tennessee is really difficult, but at least they have the pleasure of playing the lowly Jaguars.
With the roster deficiencies, I have them going 2-5 against teams with winning records, I just don't see how they dig themselves out of that first stretch of games.
Reasons for Optimism
We've already talked ad naseum about the impact that Deshaun Watson brings as the quarterback of this team. He is on a tremendous contract, is a great player, and is the best quarterback in the division. Easy.
Will Fuller gets the starting spot now after the Hopkins trade, and despite being in a contract year, is the most exciting weapon on this offense for Watson. He is a burner, and if he can stay healthy, he is the big-play guy this offense needs. If he has a big year, expect him to earn a long-term deal from Houston.
Houston has two really solid offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil and Nick Martin, at left tackle and center respectively. These two are above average at their positions, and are under contract for the next 3 years together.
When you talk about the defense, you obviously talk about J.J. Watt, one of the best defensive linemen in the league, and is still a force to be reckoned with. He leads this defense, along with linebackers Whitney Mercilus, Benardrick McKinney, and Zach Cunningham, who form a great trio that can rush the passer and drop in coverage. I am excited about 2nd round rookie Ross Blacklock, who could develop nicely next to Watt.
On the back end, Justin Reid has been a really solid safety for Houston since being drafted in 2018, he will likely lead the team in turnovers caused.
Last positive? Bill O'Brien isn't running the Red Zone Texans.
Reasons for Negativity
The trade of DeAndre Hopkins is so bad on so many levels, but this has been talked about at great length already. The Texans traded their best player for running back David Johnson, who is on a terrible contract, and is an aging player. Even running back Duke Johnson is making a ton of money to be a third down back.
The Texans are spending $21 million this year on Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills. Yikes. Stills will walk after this year, and the Texans technically can cut Cooks for nothing due to the trade, but the Cobb contract was shockingly bad. They traded Hopkins because they didn't want to pay him, but turned around and gave that money to Cobb?
The offensive line outside of the mentioned Tunsil and Martin is a joke, but thankfully this is the one group that isn't drastically overpaid. Metal will need to bring in some new faces here.
Defensively, the secondary is a mess. Bradley Roby is making $30 million over the next 3 seasons, and there is nobody behind him that is a bonafide starter. Even the other safety signed, Eric Murray, was overpaid. There are just so many bad contracts on this team.
To make matters worse, the Texans have another year without a 1st round pick, so adding cheap talent is going to be difficult.
Last Word
Metal is a great fit for this team, because I think he has the patience and decision making necessary to navigate the issues this team has. Signing Watson long-term is a massive decision incoming, and a necessary one. Losing the terrible contracts along this roster is another necessary decision.
It's like the Texans are caught in-between a rebuild and contending, they have a ton of older players on long term deals, but some young pieces as well. They aren't good enough to win the AFC South, and are easily the 3rd best roster in the division.
They could potentially sneak into the 6th or 7th seed in the AFC, but that is their ceiling for me.