Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #26
by adelfish | 4 years ago | 0 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #26
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
COVERED TEAMS: Lions, Jaguars, Bengals, Patriots, Bears, Vikings
Man these are flying by aren't they? Here we are already at #26. Look at all those bad teams we've talked about already (except my beloved Vikings). We are starting to enter a crop of teams that could be a lot better than I predict, but due to overwhelming roster issues, they have to be ranked this low.
Fun little factoid - this is the first Super Bowl winner to clock in, and let me defend myself on this one.
#26 - Miami Dolphins (Black Magic)
(5-11 Projected Record)
Let me explain myself.
I respect Coach Bird immensely, and this ranking is not indicative of his on-field abilities, and even his underrated off-field abilities. Right now, this Dolphins roster is pitiful, and I struggled to find 5 wins on the schedule with how devoid of talent they are.
Actively tanking last year, the Dolphins managed to scratch and claw their way to 5 wins behind a classic Ryan Fitzpatrick season, and an underrated defense. Now, the Dolphins spent the cap room they wisely saved, and ended up with three 1st round picks to start the rebuild.
Let's take a deep dive into this roster, and see if the decisions made by Miami will set up Black Magic for success, or if this is still a major work in progress.
One Big Question
Coach Bird heads to the Miami Dolphins, a team that has spent the past few offseasons rebuilding, but may have struck gold with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With a decorated history in developing quarterbacks, how long before the Dolphins compete for the AFC East?
'One of the most interesting things about Tagovailoa, when compared to some of the top quarterback prospects in recent memory, is that we've never really seen him play bad football.'
- PFF NFL Scout
If injuries weren't a factor, there is a very big chance that Tua would have gone #1 overall instead of Joe Burrow, as the scouting reports not that Burrow, Herbert, and Love all have issues in their game or some negative play, while Tua has been the model of consistency.
The fact that the Dolphins were able to win 5 games with the roster they had, and still land their franchise quarterback is a tremendous achievement, showing that this roster had some underrated aspects to it.
Tua's injury issues have been well documented, but Coach Bird is what we call a perfect fit for the quarterback. He designs offenses in a way that keep the quarterback out of harm's way, and doing this for Tua is paramount. Remember the offenses last year that would rely on the run game 30+ times a game, keeping Watson protected? I expect that to be the method of attack for some time in Miami.
I don't think it will be long before they compete for the division crown, the Dolphins have so much young talent they just acquired in the last two drafts, and with another 10 picks coming this year it could be expedited.
One Big Schedule Issue
You know what is crazy about my 5-11 prediction? I actually have Miami starting 3-1 on the season (they could go 4-0).
They open the season with...
@ Patriots (Glenn)
vs Bills (JP)
@ Jaguars (Pat)
vs Seahawks (Trent)
Now that is an enticing opening schedule. I do have them falling to the Bills in Week 2, as I think the roster talent and JP's talent is enough to knock off the inferior Dolphins, but with surefire wins against Jacksonville and New England, and a game against Seattle where I don't trust Trent, I see a 3-1 start.
But after that, it gets brutal. In Weeks 5-14 I have them winning 1 game against Cincinnati. They play San Francisco, both Los Angeles teams, the Jets twice, the Broncos, the Chiefs, and the Cardinals. I favor every single opponent in those games, that will be a very rough two months for the Dolphins.
The good news is, the pressure will be off Tua trying to drag a team devoid of talent into the postseason, and more about Miami seeing what they have. There is no better test than good competition, so those two months will be very important for the franchise.
Reasons for Optimism
We've discussed Tua Tagovailoa at length already, as he is the most important building block to the future success of Miami. What do the Dolphins have around him that I like?
Starting in the position group, I really like Ryan Fitzpatrick as a mentor and backup quarterback for Tua, in the event that Tua does miss time, I think Fitzpatrick is the perfect kind of quarterback to win you a couple games that you probably shouldn't have. Even Josh Rosen has some value, and could be a trade chip prior to the deadline for a desperate team.
Matt Breida was acquired via trade from the 49ers, and he is a really talented player. I could see him being the head of the three back attack the Dolphins will likely have, with Kalen Ballage and Jordan Howard.
The receiving core needs work....a lot of it, but I do really like Devante Parker who seemed to finally hit his stride with a career year last season, and he will likely be the favorite target for Tua. I still do like tight end Mike Geisicki as well, who is a pure receiving tight end for this offense.
In the draft Miami used two of the top 40 picks to select offensive lineman, with Austin Jackson in the 1st round, and Robert Hunt in the 2nd round, who will play tackle and guard respectively. Losing Tunsil to the Texans created a major hole at offensive tackle, and the Dolphins get Jackson to step in and start right away. Hunt will move to right guard more than likely. I like the potential they added here on the o-line.
Defensively it starts with the cornerbacks, as newly acquired Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are one of the best duos at the position in the leauge, along with 1st round pick Noah Igbinoghene, this could grow into one of the best secondaries in football.
The Dolphins spent a ton of money on their front seven, and the best addition was Kyle Van Noy, the former Lion and Patriot has grown into an elite linebacker, and will play all over the defense, rushing the passer and dropping into zone coverage. He will be relied on heavily, and in the development of the high potential Raekown McMillan and Jerome Baker. Those three linebackers will be key for the defense in taking a step.
Overall, the youth on offense really intrigues me. The quarterback and offensive line additions could be the major building blocks for the cycle, while this pass defense will keep Miami in more games than it deserves.
Finally, let's touch on the amount of assets the Dolphins have coming up. They already had three 1st round picks this past draft due to the trades of Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick, and have another 10 picks coming. They have two 1st round picks (one from Houston) and two 2nd round picks (one from Houston) to continue to add young talented players. That Tunsil trade may end up being the move that changes everything in Miami.
Reasons for Negativity
I've used a lot of terms to describe how the future outlook of Miami is very bright, but we forget how the Dolphins still have a season to currently play. As I mentioned in the discussion about their schedule, I think they are doomed to a losing season. I think they are easily third fiddle in their division (although I think their roster has way more upside than New York's).
With all the cap room they had, they did give out some big contracts, and not all of them were great. Heck, even Byron Jones' contract was pretty eye-popping at $16 million for the next 5 seasons.
The first one that really makes you double take is the contract for Ereck Flowers that came to $30 million for the next 3 years, for a guy who has consistently been terrible at the position. 'Upside' has been associated with him since he came into the league, and in all fairness, did have a career year in Washington last season. I think it is way too much money for an unproven player who has more negatives than positives.
I'm not excited about the additions of Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency either, especially at the combined salary of $17 million per year. The Dolphins are banking on them to resurrect a missing pass rush, and I have serious doubts about that.
On offense, the receiving core is thin. Outside of Parker, I don't see much upside from guys like Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson, and Allen Hurns. This is a position that has to be addressed next offseason to give Tua and Parker some help. I also dislike the contract given to the already mentioned Jordan Howard, who was given $10 million over two seasons. Who was bidding that much for Howard, who graded as the 32nd best running back last year? It's a short deal, but still doesn't make sense to me.
Overall, the additions in free agency made to Miami seemed like moves just to make moves. I don't like any of the defensive additions outside of Van Noy and Jones, as the contracts of Ogbah and Lawson will be detrimental. Look for Ereck Flowers to be replaced sooner rather than later, and for the receiving core and defensive line to be addressed next offseason. I just don't see how Miami is going to get to the quarterback.
Last Word
Miami is going to be associated with 'potential' and 'upside' for awhile, and deservedly so. They have done a great job in acquiring future assets and building the team the right way. With four more picks in the top 40 (likely) next offseason, they will only add more to the cupboard. Every Dolphins fan is going to be watching Texans games on the edge of their seat.
I think that the way Coach Bird builds teams, this Dolphins team is going to be very competitive soon. I think as the cycle goes along, they will be the team to beat in the AFC East along with the Jets. Where they stand now, they are lacking too much talent in their front seven and at skill positions to be scary.
Bold prediction? I think Tua wins Rookie of the Year. I could see the Dolphins eclipsing my prediction and finishing somewhere around 7 wins, but that is the highest I'd go. I have a lot of respect for this coaching staff, but all great rebuild take time.