Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #29
by adelfish | 5 years ago | 1 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #29
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
We've reached the 20's! Based on the current rate that I am pumping out these articles, the final prediction article is scheduled to be released on August 24th, how perfect of timing is that? Hopefully you've enjoyed the first three editions of these, covering the Lions, Jaguars, and Bengals. Now we move on to #29, and seriously, I don't hate the AFC....
#29 - New England Patriots (Glenn)
(3-13 Projected Record)
Life comes at you fast, and changes came fast and furious in New England this offseason. Gone is the golden boy, the 6 time Super Bowl Champion, who enjoyed his last Red Zone ride with Coach Brandon Beech, winning a ring over the New Orleans Saints back in Season 53. Tom Brady moves on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with no Bill Belichick in Red Zone, the Patriots made offers to many highly-touted coaches, who went on to greener pastures.
Enter Glenn - an enigma of a head coach. His struggles have been well documented, earning the nickname '50' due to the amount of interceptions his quarterbacks tend to throw. Glenn appears to be on the rise, his presence his certainly been felt around the leauge offices more, and his teams did see some on-field success, with multiple seasons of 6-7 wins.
The Patriots have a ton of work ahead of them, and with a front office known more for their play rather than their team building, this is the biggest test of Glenn's young Red Zone career. Let's take a deeper dive....
One Big Question
With the Tom Brady era over, the Patriots get an unknown hire in Coach Glenn, who seems rejuvinated following his time ending with the Bengals. With a major rebuild ahead, can Glenn put the doubters to rest and show his true potential?
So what is Glenn's potential? That is the first thing I want to tackle here. It's as strange a case as we have had in some time. Glenn has shown flashes of being competent enough to compete in what was a pretty strong AFC North last cycle, stealing some big time wins. On the flip side, he would then post a 3-4 win season, with a 40+ INT season for his quarterback.
His offseason moves were few and far between. He did hit on a few, but too many offseasons we saw the Bengals sit on $50 million of cap room, opting to roll over into next year. Patience in Red Zone isn't a virtue for everyone.
With the Patriots heading into Season 62, they anticpate freeing up $75 million in cap room in the coming offseason, there are some massive expiring deals coming off the books. This is great for someone who is a team builder, for an unproven one like Glenn, it is a scary proposition. Can he take advantage of the surplus of cap and make the correct decisions for the franchise?
Obviously the transition from Brady to Stidham will be rocky, but there are a ton of issues along the roster. I have faith in Glenn on the field to improve once he puts his mind to it, but we really need to see him commit to having a plan. This Patriots team has an abundnce of assets coming up, and right now I have doubts Glenn can maximize those.
One Big Schedule Issue
Weeks 4-10 for the Patriots are as brutal as it gets. The opening three games is actually encouraging for a young roster...
vs Dolphins (BM)
@ Seahawks (Trent)
vs Raiders (Tiko)
I expect him to go 0-3 in this stretch, but how much credit are we giving Trent with a decent Seahawks team? And the Dolphins are marginally better on offense in my opinion, but I give the nod to BM as a head coach. I could see Glenn starting 1-2 with an upset in one of these three games.
After this stretch of games, the season really looks grim. Here are his opponents in Weeks 4-10.
@ Chiefs (TSpittah)
vs Broncos (Astin)
vs 49ers (Sin)
@ Bills (JP)
@ Jets (Moji)
vs Ravens (BP)
Seriously can you find a win? I give them almost no chance against the Chiefs, Broncos, 49ers, and Ravens. Division games are crapshoots, but the Bills and Jets have superior coaches, so I give the nod. Honestly I could see them going 0-6 in this stretch, effectively ending their season.
Reasons for Optimism
Let's start on the defensive side of the ball, which is very good for New England. The defensive line is the only 'weak' spot, with third round surprise Chase Winovich off the edge, Dont'a Hightower on the other side, and the newly signed Beau Allen in the middle, on a very inexpensive two year deal.
There are some unknowns at linebacker, bringing in two rookies in Jose Uche and Anfernee Jennings along with the promising Ja'Whaun Bentley. There will be a training camp battle for snaps, but they will need two linebackers to stand out.
The secondary is where this team makes their money defensively - Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson are one of the best cornerback duos in football, along with Jonathan Jones who is one of the best slot corners in the game. Throw in three great safeties in Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and the newly signed Adrian Phillips from the Chargers, and this is one of the best, if not the best, secondaries in football.
Don't forget, they also added safety Kyle Dugger with their highest selection in the 2nd round of the draft, so there really is an embarassment of riches here.
The defense will have to be leaned on for Glenn to remain competitive, and they certainly have the capabilities to play great pass defense - the questions lie in their ability to rush the passer, and defend the run.
Moving to the offense, the biggest strength of the Patriots lies in the trenches, and will be massive for Jarrett Stidham or whoever is throwing passes for them.
Left to right, it's one of the most consistent groups. David Andrews missed his 2019 campaign due to injury, but is regarded as one of the best centers in the league. Shaq Mason, Isaah Wynn, and Marcus Cannon are all under contract for two or more years, while Andrews and Joe Thuney are expiring (Thuney is on the tag). With that surplus of cap room, expect the Patriots to keep this group together for a long time.
I like Sony Michel in the backfield as a bellcow for the Patriots, I think he should get between 15-20 touches a game, keeping the ball out of Stidham's hands. Obviously Julian Edelman is a very talented player, and I think N'Keal Harry has a ton of potential. The Patriots drafted a pair of tight ends in Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi, will be interesting to see the development there.
Obviously the final big optimistic point is the amount of cap relief coming, with so many big contracts coming off the books, Glenn can shape this roster how he wants, for better or worse.
Reasons for Negativity
Starting with the cap relief, some of the players expiring into free agency are good ones. James White, Mohamed Sanu, Thuney and Andrews on the o-line, nearly all their defensive line depth outside of Beau Allen and Winovich, and Hightower. That is a lot of pieces that will be playing a lot of snaps this year.
Replacing all of them will be tough, I expect New England to try and retain Thuney and Andrews, along with Dont'a Hightower.
Going to the actual roster itself, I think the skill position group around Stidham is mediocre at best. Outside of Edelman and Harry, I think there is little upside with the receiving core. Even the two rookie tight ends I metioned above are just that, rookies. James White is a very solid receiving back, but can he get on the field enough?
Stidham himself is a problem. In his lone appearence, he attempted 4 passes and threw an interception, I don't think he is going to get any favors from the men upstairs. Glenn will have to make a decision to roll with Stidham, or Brian Hoyer and actively embrace the tank.
There aren't enough players on offense that make plays, simple as that. N'Keal Harry has upside, and Edelman is a slot receiver, but they aren't big playmakers. Stidham certainly hasn't proven he is capable of carrying anything by himself, so I really worry about this offense's ability to move the ball. No doubt they have the right group of protection in front of them, but I think they'll be blocking for a new quarterback in Season 63.
Last Word
In a division with JP, Moji, and BM, it is going to be very difficult for Glenn to compete, especially if he continues the same team building habits from last year. The Bills have the best roster in the division, and the Jets have the best coach in the division (although BM is right there). All three of these coaches have appeared in Conferene Championship Games, and two of them have won Super Bowls, so Glenn has his work cut out for him.
Can he pick the right quarterback? Will he allocate cap the right way? It will be interesting to watch, but the team will look drastically different in Week 1 of Season 63 than it will in August, and the question will be if it is better or worse.