The Power Ranking Preview - #30
by adelfish | 5 years ago | 1 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #30
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
With this edition, we will be moving to the team that I project to finish with the third pick in the draft, a user who still has a ton to prove, but has shown some upside as his short career started out...
#30 - Cincinnati Bengals (Andrew)
(2-14 Projected Record)
With such little to work off of in Andrew's short Red Zone career, I think the 30th spot in the power rankings is about right. The Bills team he inherited from Coach Birdman was stripped of all talent and assets, from the famous Allen for Garoppolo swap, to the Terrence Watt trade. Safe to say, that roster was not remotely close to being competitive.
Despite that, the Bills were frisky. They had a few moments under Coach Andrew where it made us take notice, most notably a strong loss against Coach Chapstick's Redskins.
We have heard from this coaching staff that starting the cycle anew is going to make their approach different. Having the opportunity to choose the paths of your team is so important, as opposed to receiving a former staff's problems.
With that in mind, I still slot the Bengals as finishing second worst in the AFC. With a team that is relying on 1st overall pick Joe Burrow to right the ship, is Coach Andrew going to be the right guy for the job? Let's find out....
One Big Question
Coming off a shaky start to his coaching career, is Coach Andrew Vanosdol the right man to guide the superstar potential career of Joe Burrow?
It is the biggest and most obvious question to any success the Bengals plan to have this cycle - is Joe Burrow the guy, and better yet, is Coach Andrew the guy?
Burrow was the main catalyst in the LSU National Championship formula, having arguably one of the greatest seasons at the position, capping it with the Heisman Trophy. Burrow has everything you want in a quarterback, and was a surefire #1 pick candidate. The Bengals wasted no time transitioning from the Dalton era to the Burrow era, a move that will define Andrew's cycle.
Burrow is 23, and is under contract until the age of 27 (barring 5th year option, 28) and will likely be due a massive extension that will take him to age 32 or 33. Burrow will be around for the entire cycle in Cincinnati if it works out. Development is key, and we will use last year's model as a means to the argument.
Burrow will very likely come into the cycle with a development abilitiy trait. I predict Superstar, while others have thought X-Factor. I think a rookie stock player with X-Factor is something they will stray away from, so let's just work with the Superstar prediction. Burrow will need to finish top 4 in yards and touchdowns to take the next jump to X-Factor, where he can maximize his development. Is Andrew capable of this with Burrow at any point in his first three seasons, where age is paramount?
The good news is the weapons are there. Obviously A.J. Green is still there, albeit on an expiring contract the Cincy will need to make a decision on fast. Tyler Boyd had a breakout year and earned an extension through Season 65 averaging $10 million per year. The addition of the talented Tee Higgins in the 2nd round of the draft adds to the group, along with speedster John Ross who is also in the final year of his deal.
Boyd and Higgins will be around for the long haul, while Coach Andrew needs to make a decision on Green and Ross. Will Ross, with his likely elite tier speed, be worth a high-end contract? Will the aging A.J. Green want to stick around on a rebuilding Bengals team?
With these weapons, and we'll dive into the offensive line and backfield later, I can see Burrow having success. Statistical success in his rookie year will likely not translate to team success, but I think these Bengals will become frisky as the year goes along.
One Big Schedule Issue
The first half of Cincinnati's schedule is brutal, and will test them early and often. With a young quarterback, shaky offensive line, and a rebuilding defense, this is going to be a tough start for Cincinnati.
Let's take a look at the first month...
vs Chargers (IJ)
@ Browns (Prewitt)
@ Eagles (Adel)
vs Jaguars (Pat)
I have the Bengals starting 1-3 in this stretch, squeaking out a win over the hapless Jaguars in Week 4, but this could easily be an 0-4 start. I give them almost zero chance against the Chargers and Eagles, and the Browns roster is so much more talented, I think Prewitt will figure it out early enough.
@ Ravens (BP)
@ Colts (Jake)
vs Browns (Prewitt)
vs Titans (Roc)
Brutal. Another 0-4 or 1-3 stretch. I could see the Bengals and Browns splitting somehow, but I give them the same chance against the Ravens/Titans/Colts as I do to the Eagles and Chargers. I just don't think the Bengals have the personnel on defense, and the blocking to compete with high end rushers, and high powered passing attacks.
If the Bengals start 1-3 or 0-4, the season is all but lost. In a division with Baltimore and Cleveland, every loss is magnified in the scope of the season, they can't afford to fall behind. With an unknown in Pittsburgh, there is potential for Andrew to win anywhere between 2-5 games, but I am projecting the low.
Reasons for Optimism
As I mentioned earlier, Burrow is a massive blue chip prospect, he will define the offense for the cycle. I am very high on him as a day one impact guy. The receivers I mentioned will help his development, especially Higgins and Boyd.
Joe Mixon is an expiring contract and will likely command top ten RB money, and is worth it. He is a huge part of the Bengals offense, and will more than likely be brought back to the team. I really like what Giovani Bernard brings to the table as well, the receiving back to compliment Mixon. Finding a way to utilize their talents together will be huge for Andrew.
Defensively the Bengals are going to struggle, but some pieces are in place. Obviously Geno Atkins is still great, and an elite veteran presence on the defensive line. Carl Lawson is a young edge rusher on an expiring deal who needs to be brought back, he has the highest potential of any player on Cincy's defense. I do like D.J. Reader as a newly acquired DT to play alongside Atkins, but I don't like the price tag (4 Years, $53 million), and I feel the same about Carlos Dunlap who is making $23 million over the next two years, but he is a very good player.
Overall, the youth on offense is going to be what drives success for the Bengals. Defensively, there isn't much to like, but there are a couple impact guys who could alter the course of a game or two.
Reasons for Negativity
It starts with the offensive line, as there are a lot of bad contracts and question marks along it. First off, Jonah Williams was the 11th overall pick last year, and didn't play due to a shoulder surgery, so the Bengals essentially have a rookie left tackle blocking for Burrow. He has upside, but there will be a transition period.
Bobby Hart, Trey Hopkins, Xavier Su'a-Filo, and Billy Price round out the rest of the line, all shaky starters at best, and all locked in to long term deals. Su'a-Filo is a stopgap at guard, while Hart, Hopkins, and Price are being paid between $3.5-6.5 mil per year for the next 3 seasons.
With the ratings now being influenced by PFF, seeing these numbers is only going to make Andrew sick to his stomach. There is nothing worse than below average blockers making above average money.
Tight end C.J. Uzomah is a mediocre receiver, and is making $12 million over the next two seasons, with the departure of Tyler Eifert. The Bengals really picked a strange offseason to start spending money.
Now, for the defense. As I mentioned above, I like the defensive line, it will actually be a strength of this team. As you move back into the secondary, it becomes a disaster.
The Bengals gave Trae Waynes a 3 year deal worth $42 million to play corner alongside William Jackson, who has been mediocre for them. Waynes has been the second corner in Minnesota since he was drafted in the 1st round, and has never lived up to the billing of a high pick. Making $42 million over 3 years is a huge price tag, and he needs to earn it.
The Bengals also gave Vonn Bell a 3 year deal worth $18 million, which is another headscratcher. The Bengals have a ton of money invested in medicore to average players, and all are on longer deals.
Fortunately, the Bengals will be freeing up almost $60 million in cap room heading into Season 63, but will have to make decisions on A.J. Green, Joe Mixon, John Ross, Carl Lawson, and William Jackson.
Last Word
The Bengals roster has upside, with the potential for a high powered attack featuring Burrow, Mixon, and the really solid three wide receivers they have. Defensively, their front four will create problems for opposing defenses, with Lawson, Reader, Atkins, and Dunlap. Besides that group, the linebackers aren't worth mentioning and the secondary is a disaster.
Can Andrew mold the offense into a competitve unit? The Bengals will need to use that cap room in Season 63 to acquire help for the linebackers and secondary, and the same in the draft. Finding a way to get out of those offensive line contracts is only going to help.
Right now, I forsee a bleak Season 62, filled with ups and downs. Burrow will not win Offensive Rookie of the Year, or Rookie of the Year, mainly due to the high turnover count I anticipate, and the record of 2-3 wins.
With a good offseason focused on defense, this Bengals team could be in the mix in a couple years, if Andrew continues to trend in the direction he has been.