The Power Ranking Preview - #31
by adelfish | 4 years ago | 1 Comments
Season 62 Power Ranking Preview - #31
Welcome to the 2020 Red Zone Power Ranking Preview. In this long-running preview, I will be going team at a time, ranking them 32-1, discussing the user, the team, the schedule, etc.
With this edition, we will be moving to the team that I project to finish worst in the AFC, and hold the second overall pick in the Season 62 Draft...
#31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (Pat)
(2-14 Projected Record)
Some will call this disrespectful, some will say this is a troll, some will say I'm just trying to get Pat going (which I know this will). Those of you with smart football minds will see that this is more accurate of a prediction than Pat having any sort of chance to make noise with this roster.
Pat's resume as a coach has improved almost every cycle, making a NFC Championship Game with the Seahawks two years ago, then consistently competing for the NFC North, and winning a couple playoff games with the Green Bay Packers.
Now he faces his biggest challenge since joining the league. He inherits a roster that is actively tanking, and has been stripped of all the assets that brought them within a quarter of the Super Bowl a few years ago. Gone is 'Sacksonville', gone is Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. There are pieces here, but let's take a deeper look into why this season will be such a struggle.
One Big Question
Coach Patrick Allen is brought in to oversee one of the biggest rebuilds in football. Will Pat have the patience to prioritize the draft, and will he allow Gardner Minshew to get a fair chance?
There is no way around it - this roster is currently structured to be a failure, whoever was hired to coach it. The organization is actively tanking, and is doing a very good job of it. The Jaguars are positioned for as exciting of an offseason that you can have coming up, but before that they have to endure a season of losing.
Does Pat have it in him to embrace the tank? I think he does, he is typically a 'big picture' kind of guy, and armed with the cap and draft assets the Jaguars have, I think he will see the short term loss of a season to the long term gain of a cycle-changing offseason.
The biggest question for me with this team is the quarterback situation, as Gardner Minshew is the only quarterback on roster worth paying attention to (no, we don't care about Mike Glennon and Josh Dobbs). With three more years left on his rookie deal, maximizing his potential is key to the Jaguars success. Season 62 is likely make or break, as the Jaguars will either stick with him, or use one of their two 1st round picks to take his replacement.
There is no doubt Minshew starts the entirity of Season 62 barring injury, can he do enough with the lack of a supporting cast to earn another shot in Season 63? I have doubts.
One Big Schedule Issue
There are some big stretches for the Jaguars and Coach Pat that will define his season, and one of them is the first month.
vs Colts (Jake)
@ Titans (Roc)
vs Dolphins (BM)
@ Bengals (Andrew)
Two very difficult opening games, and then two games against rebuilding franchises. I don't think the Jaguars in their current state can compete with the Colts or Titans, so an 0-2 start seems inevitable. The Dolphins are a tough call, I think their roster is marginally better, but I think Coach Bird will take advantage of a reeling Jags team. The Bengals are one of the few winnable games on Pat's schedule for me.
He could go 0-4 or 2-2. 0-4 or 1-3 seems most likely to me, I just don't see a path to him competing with the Colts or Titans in Season 62.
Jacksonville's schedule actually isn't that difficult, but every single game is an uphill battle for them on the field. There are games where if Pat had a decent roster, I'd favor him in (Steelers, Vikings, Lions, Browns, Bears) but the lack of personnel is really going to hurt.
I think Jacksonville limps through September, possibly defeats Detroit in Week 5, but falls apart in October/November. I could see them having 1-2 wins by the Week 7 bye, then going winless the remainder of the season.
Reasons for Optimism
Let's talk about that offseason I've mentioned. The Jaguars will be freeing up nearly $55 million in cap from Season 62 to Season 63, and will have a projected total of $96 million free. They also have 9 draft picks in the Season 62 draft, including an extra 1st and 4th from the Rams (Jalen Ramsey trade).
With those assets, they can build on the ones they already have. Defensively, the Jaguars have actually done a pretty nice job at acquiring high-end players. They've drafted Josh Allen and Taven Bryan for the defensive line, and linebacker Myles Jack. They just gave former Brown Joe Schoebert a nice deal in free agency to play alongside Jack. In the draft, the Jaguars selected C.J. Henderson and K'Lavon Chaisson in the first round, a corner and edge rusher respectively. Along with the young core they have, Jacksonville has a ton of potential on defense.
Offensively it is murkier. I really like the upside of the offensive line, with star guard Andrew Norwell playing next to the talented Brandon Linder at center. Cam Robinson has been really solid for them at tackle, but outside of those three, the line still needs help.
Leonard Fournette is on the last year of his deal, and is likely set to hit the market. Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark are two talented wideouts with cheap deals, who should be the favorite targets of Minshew. I also am intrigued by the rookie Laviska Shenault who should carve a role early, if not atop the depth chart.
Reasons for Negativity
A lot of the positives we listed are dependant on things. Westbrook and Chark are very unproven as wideouts, but have upside. Fournette is an overpaid running back who has never lived up to the hype. The offensive line is the strongest point of the offense, but still had major holes.
I really don't like the deal that the Jaguars gave to Tyler Eifert althought it is a short term deal for 2 years, but $9 million over two years for Eifert is a lot more than he is worth. I expect Pat to start the promising Josh Oliver over Eifert.
The running back group is downright abysmal, outside of the aforementioned Fournette, you have receiving back Chris Thompson fresh off injury, and 5th round pick Ryquell Armstead out of Temple. Pat cannot fall into the trap or temptation to extend Leonard Fournette despite the cap room he will have.
Yes, Yannick Ngakoue is on roster, but he will be traded before the season begins. Ngakoue has voiced immense displeasure with the organization, and said he will not play for the team. Pat should not expect to have the talented rusher on roster come August.
Remember when Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye were the best secondary in the league? Well they are both gone, and the secondary is a complete disaster. First rounder C.J. Henderson will help, but what about castoffs such as D.J. Hayden and Rashaan Melvin? Yikes. The safety position isn't much better, but their is some intriguing youth.
Last Word
There is a ton of work to be done here. The Jaguars are banking on nailing their Season 63 draft, along with hoping their two first rounders in 2020 paid off. I really like the youth and upside on defense. The defensive line with Allen, Chaisson, Bryan, the linebackers of Schoebert and Jack, and Henderson in the secondary. Those are some really nice building blocks.
Offensively I think this is among the worst, if not the worst in the leauge. Minshew is far from proven, and has little help around him. He needs Shenault to pan out early, and hope one of Chark or Westbrook does enough to earn an extension. Inexperience is really going to hurt Jacksonville, as most of the players on offense at skill position are still fairly new to the leauge.
Jacksonville having these draft picks and cap is by no means a slam dunk. Pat will need to be smart with his decisions. How will he handle the two 1st rounders? Quarterback and Wide Receiver? Cornerback and Left Tackle? There are so many holes on offense, and the secondary, that it would be tough to screw up.
Finally with that $96 million in cap, the Jaguars better hope a marquee player hits the market. Dak Prescott, Von Miller, Chris Jones, Shaq Barrett, Justin Simmons, Anthony Harris, Derrick Henry...just to name a few. One of those players would make a massive impact to Jacksonville.
I stand by my prediction for Pat, in a division where he may not win a division game for awhile, it is going to be a tough rebuild. This roster will look astronomically different in Season 63, and I can't wait to see what Patty does!