Dissecting the Red Zone - by Adel & Kelly - Part One
With the end of the 31st season of the Red Zone on the horizon, it is about time to take a look back, and a look ahead. Where are these teams headed? Where will they be next year? This article takes the best look at each of our 32 teams, and how the league will shape out in these playoffs, and for the next years to come. Enjoy the read Red Zone.
--TIER 1 - THE CROSS-OFFS--
In any professional sports league, there will be a group of teams that are mocked, ridiculed, and are the laughing stock. These are the teams that the fans come to in their brown paper bag hats, and leave at halftime. The season ticket holders rethink their investment every year, wondering if their cold hard cash would rather be spent on a new car, or a new television, rather than an afternoon at U.S. Bank Stadium to watch the 1-15 Minnesota Vikings. Well, someone has to fill that void. Here are your crossoffs.
#32 - Minnesota Vikings (1-15) - The Minnesota Vikings have struggled in many facets throughout their Red Zone, but their main foe has been offense. The Vikings have spent a lot of draft capital over the years on defense, building up an athletic front seven that will be able to keep them in any game; but their offense gives games away. Starting quarterback Steven McLeod finished the season with 6 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions, averaging nearly 2 turnovers a game, and a horrific yards per game and scoring ratio.
The Vikings actually have a solid running back in Eldon Wilber, but horrific play from the offensive line, mostly their interior, has rendered him useless. If the Vikings could spend some high draft quity on offensive lineman and blocking, they could build this offense around Wilber and get away from making mistakes, which ultimately cost them games.
Defensively the Vikings are set for the forseeable future, nailing draft picks like Derek Cota and Justice Kearse, and mainstays like Anthony Barr, Mackensie Alexander, and Eric Kendricks, this is a top 10 defense on paper. The Vikings simply need to find a way to be consistent on both sides of the ball to become more relevant in a very winnable division.
--KELLY'S TAKE-- The Vikings have had the easiest schedule in the league according to Opponents Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy, while somehow having the 2nd worst Pythagorean Win Expectancy.
#31 - San Francisco 49ers (3-13) - The 49ers fell apart at the seams this season, as their quarterback issues finally caught up with them. Hiding Geno Smith and company wasn't going to last long, and this season saw that idea collapse. The 49ers saw Smith, Jeff Driskel, and practice squad call-up Jack Epstein see time, and they all had trouble.
The 49ers also regressed due to their aging defense, that is full of veterans that will likely be released. Guys like NaVorro Bowman, Bruce Irvin, and a secondary that is headed towards the wrong side of 30 with Logan Ryan and Jimmie Ward. This back end of the defense was extremely weak, as the 49ers allowed 25 points per game, and 355 yards per game, good for bottom 5 in the league.
Their building blocks on defense are DeForrest Buckner and Arik Armstead on the front line, two great young pass rushers. Offensively, Jameson Hilton emerged as a #1 wide receiver, after a 2 catch rookie season, exploded onto the scene with 86 receptions, 1362 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He is clearly eclipsing Antonio Brown on the depth chart, and is a great weapon for whoever their future is at quarterback.
The 49ers will hold a top 2-3 pick in the upcoming draft, and a quarterback is the likely selection. They need plenty of help though, in their front seven, secondary, and receiving core.
--KELLY'S TAKE-- The 49ers are much better than their record indicates. They are the only team to beat the Rams this season, have played by far the hardest schedule in the league, and have been the 2nd most unlucky team this season. Strength of Schedule Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectancy has them as nearly a .500 team.
#30 - Houston Texans (2-14) - The Texans actually ended Season 30 on a very good note, heading into the offseason losing two close games to the Jets and Giants, showing signs of competence and maybe a sign of things to come. That couldn't have been more of a mirage, as the Texans imploded in Season 31, winning two games, their only victories coming over the Colt and Chiefs.
The Texans actually showed some interesting stuff at the beginning of the year, with three straight one possession losses to the Broncos, Chargers, and Jaguars, two of which are playoff teams. This Texans team has talent on the defensive side of the ball, but horrific coaching on offense, and a lack of explosive weapons have held this team back.
A quarterback controversy with Will Winkler and Rich Jameson ended with Winkler being the starter, not that it mattered, as both threw 17 interceptions a piece on the year, while Winkler threw 14 touchdowns compared to Jameson's 7. Terrible numbers for both regardless, but at least Winkler provided some sort of spark. The pedestrian Tyler Ervin has surpassed Lamar Miller on the depth chart, but to no excitement of the fanbase, as he averages 3.3 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Texans have great pieces, but they are aging, and it is really starting to show. The Texans ranked dead last in points allowed, with 29 allowed per game. Starters like Charles Johnson, J.J. Watt, Connor Barwin, Whitney Mercilus, and Joe Haden are all 30+. There could be some big changes in Houston.
The Texans need to upgrade on the defensive side of the ball. They simply are too slow, and they aren't opportunistic. The Texans need to find ways to get to the quarterback and generate turnovers. That starts with speed and athleticism, and they need an influx of this. With a top 3-4 selection, they need to grab an athletic pass rusher or linebacker.
--KELLY'S TAKE-- The Texans have had a very difficult schedule, ranking as the 2nd most difficult in the league by Opponent Adjust Pythagorean Win Expectancy. Add being unlucky (underperforming their win expectation by 1.6 games) they just can’t catch a break.
#29 - Baltimore Ravens (4-12) - The Ravens finished the season with 4 wins, including some surprising victories over Denver and (at the time) Jacksonville, but the 4 wins are actually somewhat deceiving, as this team was likely worse than their record indicated. The Ravens are an aging team in an extremely difficult division, and need help everywhere.
The second worst offense in the league in terms of points scored, averaging 12 per game. Joe Flacco was downright atrocious, throwing 10 touchdowns to 22 interceptions on the year, and a 52.6 completion percent. A horrible year for him, which is likely his last as a Raven. Whatever young, or veteran, quarterback comes to compete or right the ship, they will at least have some young talent in Todd Gurley and Breshad Perriman.
Defensively, the secondary actually surprisingly improved, jumping to 17th in the league in pass defense, but the rest of the defense was awful. Their run defense simply couldn't compete with opposing rushing attacks, as this talent-starved front seven is simply too small and slow to get off blocks. The Ravens are lacking true playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, and a complete overhaul is needed.
Despite a desperate need for a quarterback, I believe the Ravens should address their front seven aggresively this offseason. Losing C.J. Mosley hurt, so finding his replacement will be key. I see them addressing the linebacker position early in the draft, and acquiring more pass rushers.
--KELLY'S TAKE--- It’s not often you see a team with 4 wins having an lucky season, but the Ravens are just that. They rank dead last in Pythagorean Win Expectancy, even lower than the Vikings.
#28 - Seattle Seahawks (5-11) - You might be starting to wonder where the 1-14-1 Dolphins are...don't worry, they are coming soon. It isn't good when your team with 5 wins is valued lower than the team with the #1 pick, but there is plenty of good reason. The Seahawks are interesting in one regard, that they can defend the pass very well. The question is, if it is a mirage or not.
Defensively, the Seahawks have gotten old and expensive. They have lost Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, and are using band-aids like Samuel Gillislee and Marcus Burley to patch together an aggreisve secondary that presses receivers and forces opposing quarterbacks to make mistakes. They've also lost guys in the front seven like Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin, and K.J. Wright. The Legion of Boom is gone.
Offensively, the Seahawks invested their top choice last year in quarterback Scott Magee, and his rookie season was derailed after being injured in the preseason, and missed the first 5 weeks. Magee showed some signs of improvement throughout the year, but a lack of talent in the receiving core held him back.
This offseason, look for Seattle to address their defensive woes in the back-end, and find a #1 wide receiver to grow with their young quarterback.
--KELLY'S TAKE--- The Seahawks have the most unbalanced defense in the league. They rank 1st in pass defense and 31st in run defense. Unfortunately in the rank that matters most, scoring defense, they rank 29th.
To be continued.....next time we tackle the next tier of Red Zone teams...
