The Anatomy of a Collapse - Baltimore Edition
by Vandalay14 | 8 years ago | 0 Comments
After the week 10 matchup with division rival Cincinnati, the Baltimore Ravens were in sole possession of first place in the AFC North, with a 7-2 record. The defense was among the best in the league and the offense was well balanced. Head Coach Art Vandalay was poised to pilot his team to the playoffs, possibly with a first round bye.
Since then, however, the team has collapsed. They have lost 5 straight games and, with it, their playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. The offense has been awful, which put more pressure on the defense, which has regressed. Here's a look at collapse:
DEFENSE
We will start with the defense, as they were so strong early in the year. Prior to the losing streak, the defense was giving up 277 yards per game to opposing offenses, and during the slump, they have given up 288. This drop is barely significant in the grand scheme of things. However, the way they've given up those yards has changed the complexion of how teams attack the Ravens defense.
In the first 10 weeks of the season, the team gave up 558 yards on the ground (62 per game), but after that point, they've given up 500 yards (100 yards per game). Quite simply, they've been gashed by teams with strong offensive lines and a commitment to the run game.
This, of course, has made a difference in the amount of turnovers created. The Ravens have a number of hard hitting defenders but have only caused 7 fumbles this year,. On the other hand, the pass coverage, in concert with the pass rushers, have created 28 interceptions this year. But with the opposition putting the ball in the air less, the Ravens zone scheme has not been as effective in takeaways in the past 5 games.
Defensive Line - Terrell Suggs is the anchor of the line and been largely effective in run defense but only produced 2 sacks during the losing streak. Elvis Dumervil is now used as a pass rushing specialist and has only 2 sacks during that time span as well. Stud DT Brandon Williams oddly had 0 solo tackles during the team's four game win streak and has 6 solo tackles (and 2 sacks) during the losing streak - a testiment to recent effectiveness of the rushing attacks the Ravens have been facing.
Linebackers - Kamalei Correa's involvement in the defense has grown over the course of the season, as shown by 14 solo tackles in the past 5 games (and one interception). Preston Brown was acquired shortly before the losing streak but has been very active as well, with 10 solo tackles and 2 interceptions.
Secondary - Surprisingly, cornerback Jimmy Smith has only one tackle in the past 5 games, which partially means that teams are no longer challenging him and partly because teams are too busy rushing the ball. Kamal Ishmael has been playing more lately, as he's a run down specialist at safety, limiting how much time Maurice Canady has been able to spend ballhawking in the secondary. Ishmael has been effective, however, gathering 10 solo tackles during the team's slump.
OFFENSE
The Ravens' rushing attack has been very steady, in that it's been inconsistent. They've gained 991 yards on the ground, 66.8 in the first 10 games and 64.6 during the slump. However, the team has been plagued with some poor performances, most notibly against Miami (32 yards) and Cincinnati (9 yards). In addition, the team has only had 100+ yard rushing games 3 times through the first 14 games. Karlos Williams averaged 4 yards per carry during the losing streak after averaging 5.9 per carry during the team's 4 game win streak.
The team's struggles, however, center on quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco completed 65% of his passes during the first 9 games of the year, but that percentage has dropped to 59.5% during the losing streak. The average yardage and touchdown rate remained largely the same prior to and during the slump, at about 265 ypg and 1.8 TDpg. The massive jump has been in interceptions, which has climbed from 1.5 per game through 9 games and 2.8 in the losing streak.
In addition, the offensive line has been struggling a bit as well. When the Ravens were 7-2, Flacco averaged being sacked 2 times per game. In the 5 game losing streak, he's been sacked 3.8 times per game. This, when coupled with the reduction in rushing attack, has led to inconsistencies that has bled across the offensive attack.
This has all led to a massive problem in turnover differential. During the team's 4 game win streak, the team was +5. However, during the losing streak, the team has been a shocking -13!!!
THE PLAN:
Quite frankly, it all starts with the offense. The offensive line has to more consistently open more holes for Karlos Williams. Veteran center Jeremy Zuttah has been very solid throughout his career in Baltimore but rookie Samuel Buck is frankly a better blocker and will be utilized more frequently. Williams will still be getting the ball plenty but mid-season signing Barry Ruffin will be utilized as the primary backup.
The recieving corps will be led by speedster Breshad Perriman, but rookie Jacobie Pinkney was hurt in the loss to the Packers. Rookie Mykkele Loyd will be tapped to replace him. Veteran Kamar Aiken, Rashad Greene and rookie DJ Lacy will continue to play the slot. Tight end Maxx Williams has been consistent and will be the primary threat at that position, but Ben Braunecker is being groomed for more time as well.
Of course, Ravens Nation is split on Joe Flacco. On one hand, he provided a championship ring in 2013. On the other, his decision making and accuracy has always been erratic, but has taken a turn south as the season has progressed. He will continue to be at the helm, possibly because the team cannot afford to cut him. However, his leash is getting shorter by the loss, and Kevin Hogan is improving.
Meanwhile, on defense, the team has to get it's groove back. Granted, if the turnovers return to a reasonable level, the defensive unit will be stressed less because of field position and sheer number of plays. Shamell Riley will continue to start at one defensive end, but ZaDarius Smith has some playmaking ability (won Defensive Player of the Week in week 2 this season) and will get more time too. Linebacker Kamalei Correa is blossoming as a playmaker and will now rarely leave the field. In the secondary, cornerback Doran Grant has done a solid job, but rookie Julius Riddle has passed him on the depth chart. Meanwhile the team will continue to find ways to use safety Maurice Canady in center field.
The Ravens have two games left: against a resurgent Chicago Bears and a very solid Kansas City Chiefs. Both will prove to be difficult tests. But ultimately, it comes down to better decision-making. The play calling has do a better job with field position and the quarterback has to do a smarter job protecting the ball. Without these changes, the team will finish sub-.500 and the Art Vandalay Fan Club will be history.