2021 Playoffs: Super Bowl Threat Rankings
by connorrice26 | 4 years ago | 0 Comments
I fucked around and created some #content for the people on this fine Sunday evening. Now that the playoff slates for both conferences are fully set (not the seeding per se, but the users themselves) I decided to rank all 14 of them by how likely I think it is that each user will win the Super Bowl. Unlike all of my other rankings this is NOT in a vacuum; prior success and current form both play a part in these rankings. Subscribe to twitch.tv/betterleaguenetwork
#14: Wohzi
I will give Wohzi sincere credit and say that while I knew he would eventually have his playoff contending season (one per cycle, like clockwork), I genuinely didn’t think it would be this season, especially against a schedule that featured the AFC East and two games against Dan and Steel. Quality wins litter the schedule, most notably week 15 v. Carolina and back-to-back wins over LAC and NE earlier in the season. With all of that being said, Baker Mayfield still averages almost 3 INT per game and I don’t trust Wohzi to find the passing efficiency he needs in a series of games that would likely include both Ben and Dan. If current seeding holds Wohzi will play Dan in the 6/3 matchup, and it’s overwhelmingly likely that his playoff aspirations would end right there.
#13: Connor
While I’ve only been blown out once all season (Alex is my daddy) and have jumped out to early leads against Austin, Cody, Cmass and others, maintaining offensive explosiveness through entire games continues to be an issue and I lack the ability to flip another gear/bring out the ebooks come playoff time that so many elite BL users possess. Despite my ability to keep it close against plenty of elite users my most impressive win all season was against either Jesse or Fern depending on who you ask, and I don’t see a scenario where I suddenly turn these close losses into wins against four superior users in a row. I’m just glad to be here at the end of the day.
#12: Morty
Wayyyyy too inconsistent this season, and though a recent win over NYG gives him decent momentum come playoff time I think, much like Morty would probably say, that it’s a tough ask for him to be able to string together four quality wins (especially if he ends up facing Alex). While there’s no chance in hell Wohzi or myself wins the bowl I do think Morty has a non-zero chance (!history), but it would take a LOT and the Raiders have generally struggled against playoff-quality competition so far this cycle. There is something to be said about having been here before, and Morty’s four championship rings don’t lie, but I think the AFC’s just too stacked this season. Push your safeties back… deeper… deeper…
#11: Cmass
If you had me write this article after our week 11 game I might’ve had Cmass in the top 5, but recent form has been brutal and I struggle to see how a defense that just gave up 46, 41 and 51 to Fern, Jesse and Kiing respectively will suddenly clamp up explosive offenses like SF and NOLA come playoff time. Coach O’Connor insisting on playing his starters in a meaningless week 17 game vs. CIN also bothers me, as we’ve seen Better League precedent that playing starters in meaningless games can come back to bite you (hi Shawn). I would love to be proven wrong, my BLN brethren winning a bowl would be amazing to watch and great for the league, but I don’t see it happening this season.
#10: Hero Austin
I remain confused by how much of Austin’s inflated regular season records comes down to user skill and how much of it comes down to cake schedules against users who don’t know how to adjust defensively to his ultra-conservative approach (ignore our score from last season). We’ve seen the eye-opening wins for sure, wins over the Saints and Chiefs have built buzz around New York, but I’m still shook by last season’s wild card round and am having trouble seeing how Austin goes from that to running the table in the playoffs. Austin had the single most disappointing performance of anyone in the playoffs last season, losing the 1 seed to Taint week 17 and blowing it against what was on paper a far inferior Rams team. I certainly think Austin has a path to the bowl, Saquon is fearsome on his worst day and they’ve proven themselves in certain out-of-division matchups… but will it translate to the playoffs this time? It certainly didn’t last season.
#9: Justin
Doesn’t it kinda feel like the league has figured Justin out? The rushing numbers remain gaudy and I could see a situation where other users self-destruct against Jonathan Taylor and co. but I think of any user in these playoffs Justin has the biggest dropoff offensively when his plan A is shut down. With that being said it’s a hell of a plan A; Taylor averages 6 YPC and no one other than Lucky’s Seahawks have truly shut him down in a game yet. I think anyone else in the AFC could feasibly go down 17 in the first half and make up that deficit in the 2nd half. Can Justin? I have my doubts.
#8: Kiing
As was expected heading into the season, Kiing has gone extremely pass-heavy en route to a 58-TD season from rookie QB Levi Cason and has been generally unimpressive on the ground… wait, are we sure this isn’t an Ocho/HHH situation? Kiing’s 44 PPG leads the league offensively, and I remain very impressed by his upset win over Hero Austin and taking Dan to the wire last playoffs, but something tells me that Kiing would have had a better shot of competing with last season’s blend of Cam Akers and an elite run defense than this borderline air raid offense he’s currently rolling with. Is it weird that I actually consider Kiing to be a slight favorite heading into his likely 2/7 matchup with Hero Austin? Maybe I’m reading too much into one matchup, but if Kiing manages to beat him in the WC round for the second season in a row the toxicity in chat will be unparalleled.
#7: Steel
Assuming Steel doesn’t have to take an hour mid-game to rescue a cat from a one-foot ledge I very much look forward to calling his games on BLN, as his steadfast refusal to run with arguably the best RB in the game and ability to muddy games up and keep them close against the league’s elite is fun to watch. Will he actually be able to do anything in the playoffs? It’s hard to say. Of all users I had the most trouble ranking Steel, as the eye test (suspect) runs contrary to his results both last season and this season (quite strong). Steel’s top-3 defense tends to carry the day in Carolina, especially in back-to-back wins over Dan and Austin early in the season, and there’s no denying that Steel has had statement wins against the league’s elite despite his performances not always being the prettiest. I think Steel is kind of in his own tier within this list: clearly more capable of stringing strong results together than Kiing and everyone below him, but not quite in that top-6 either. Look for Steel to, at the very least, keep it close against whoever he plays.
#6: Young Alex
I thought young Alex was the most underrated user of the season last season and remain convinced he’s being slept on heading into these playoffs, but a looming wild card matchup against the Chiefs doesn’t bode particularly well and I don’t like his tendency to lose himself mentally when he goes down in a game. We’ve seen recent games suggest that there may still be a slight gap between proven champions like Cody and Austin and himself, but I believe his run to the AFCCG last season was no fluke and he’s truly as dangerous as anyone come playoff time. His four losses are against Dan, Austin and Cody. Nothing to be ashamed of. If he can try not to bitch incessantly in chat when literally one break goes against him (tough ask, I know) and stay locked in like he was in last season’s playoffs, look out.
#5: Austin
Gator great Matthew Davis has lit the world on fire in his rookie season, dropping a Better League record 67 passing TD over the course of the season with the type of efficiency that very few quarterbacks have matched over the Better League’s entire history. This efficiency comes despite having gone against a litany of elite users all season long, chief among them Dan, Young Alex and Steel. On its face, there is no user and team that should be feared more heading into these playoffs than Austin’s New England Patriots. So why put them at 5? Simply put, I’m still traumatized by my game against Alex a few days ago, and Austin hasn’t had the type of playoff success over the past cycle for me to give him the benefit of the doubt over users like Dan and Cody. Numbers 1-6 in this list are all true Super Bowl contenders in my opinion, and Austin has the rings to prove he’s capable, but I need to see it in 2020 before putting him in the true elite pantheon again.
#4: Dan
Disrespectful to put Dan at #4. So disrespectful. The Rhode Island group chat is blowing up as you read this. But hey, the passing defense has been suspect all season long and every NFC playoff user is watching film on how Cloud was able to maul Dan in week 16 I’m sure. I remain convinced that Dan intentionally takes it easy on fellow RI users like Fern and Nick to let them look impressive in a loss so I’m not super worried about those close wins, but I do think that unlike in M20 Dan has shown the tendency to force it a little bit this cycle and give up some dumb turnovers as a result (look no further than 4 and 6 INT performances against NYG and ARI this season as examples). We will get to the point where Dan is a death machine marching through the rest of the NFC soon, but we’re not there yet. He’s beatable.
#3: Cody
CRAAAAAAZY CODY plays against Cmass tomorrow night to potentially lock up his second straight 1 seed within the AFC, and much like last season he’s rounding into form late with a 6-game winning streak including a Jesse sweep and wins over Young Alex and myself. Burrow has shown a bit of a hot-and-cold tendency game-to-game and if the passing game hits a cold patch against the right user (Justin, for example) things could spiral out of control in Cincinnati, but there’s absolutely no reason to doubt the defending champion until proven otherwise. This is not a situation like M20 Dan where Cody should be expected to steamroll the rest of the conference on his way to the Super Bowl, but much like last season he has as good a shot to win as anyone and there is recent precedent to suggest he will feel confident in potential divisional round matchups with Young Alex and Austin, at the very least. Can’t discount playoff sweatiness either.
#2: Ben
19-0 was a legit possibility until Cloud put an end to things, but defense carries over come playoff time and Ben’s 49ers have had their opponents clamped up all season long. While Ben isn’t blowing people the fuck out like he was in his 19-0 M20 season, he’s been able to get decisive wins over playoff users like Kiing and Steel, and from a pure odds perspective having the 1 seed helps his chances (one less game to play). I have slight reservations about rushing efficiency in a situation where the 49ers are shut down through the air, but ultimately I think the 49ers are the slight favorite in the NFC and I trust Ben to bow down to no one as the playoffs progress.
#1: Alex
If you subscribe to the idea that momentum matters over the course of a season, then Alex has to be your Super Bowl pick. His offense has gone supernova, with back-to-back 59 and 55-point performances over Morty and myself, and a week 10 win over the defending champs was the catalyst for perhaps the most impressive 7-game stretch any user’s had all cycle long. Alex has gone from having perhaps the most disappointing season of any user last season to being, without a doubt, the hottest user in these playoffs (take that however you want) and my pick to win Super Bowl XXVIII. If anyone can shut down his offense with Alex’s current form and confidence I’d love to see it. I’m still not really sure how he’s 0-4 against Phil…
PREDICTED SUPER BOWL OUTCOME: Chiefs beat 49ers 38-27