2017 Playoff Projections and Scenarios
by connorrice26 | 7 years ago | 0 Comments
Similarly to last season's article, I'm going to break this down by seed and conference before giving you my predictions at the end. We'll begin with the rejuvenated AFC.
The Denver Broncos are the overwhelming favorites to secure the 1 seed and a first-round bye. The only other team in mathematical contention is the New England Patriots, but they face both a 1-game deficit and a head-to-head tiebreaker to account for due to a 26-14 home win by the Broncos in week 10. The math is simple. If the Broncos beat one of the Redskins or Chiefs, they will have officially secured the 1 seed. If the Broncos lose out, and the Patriots win out, the Patriots will clinch the 1 seed. Although the Broncos and Jaguars could hypothetically both finish 13-3, in that situation the Broncos still win out because the Jaguars have 3 conference losses, and the most the Broncos could possibly have is 1. The same applies to the Tennessee Titans, who also have 3 conference losses.
Given Morty's steadfast consistency within his division as well as the fact that his remaining two games are against the freefalling Jets and the lowly Bills, I have little doubt that the 2 seed will ultimately go to New England. However, should New England suffer an upset things get really interesting. In a situation where New England drops a game and the Jaguars and Titans both win their week 16 games (JAX @ SF, LAR @ TEN), the winner of Jaguars-Titans week 17 would then deal with a tiebreaker scenario. However, no matter who wins, they would have the same overall record, division record and conference record with no head-to-head tiebreakers to break things up. This means the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Jacksonville lost to the Chargers and Browns, both of whom lost to the Patriots, and neither of the Patriots losses so far were on the Jaguars' schedule. Therefore, the Patriots would win the tiebreaker and obtain the two seed. Tennessee lost to the Dolphins who the Patriots have swept, and neither of the Patriots losses overlap with the Titans, so in this scenario the Patriots win out as well.
Confused? Good, you should be. The bottom line is, due to the most obscure of tiebreakers, unless the Patriots lose out they will obtain the 2 seed.
Given this fact, the 3 seed will likely go to either Jacksonville or Tennessee. This is a simple "win and you're in" scenario. No matter what happens to either team week 16, week 17 will be a winner-take-all game due to the fact that the winner will have the better divisional record and be guaranteed at least the same overall record no matter what happens week 16. If this game isn't streamed Shawn and Crooked should both be banned.
The 4 seed has been clinched by the Cleveland Browns.
If the Chiefs beat the Broncos week 17, no matter what happens in the Jaguars-Titans game the Chiefs will clinch the 5 seed outright. This is because in this scenario the Chiefs would have the same overall and divisonal record as the Jags/Titans, but a better conference record due to the 3 conference losses that Jacksonville and Tennessee have already suffered. If the Chiefs lose to Denver but beat Miami week 16, and the loser of Jacksonville-Tennessee wins their week 16 game, that team will clinch the 5 seed due to a better divisonal record. If the Chiefs lose to Denver but beat Miami and the loser of Jacksonville-Tennessee loses their week 16 game, the Chiefs will clinch the 5 seed. If the Chiefs lose out, no matter what they will be the 6 seed.
PREDICTIONS:
#1. Denver Broncos
#2. New England Patriots
#3: Tennessee Titans
#4. Cleveland Browns
#5. Kansas City Chiefs
#6. Jacksonville Jaguars
(to clarify: I have the Jaguars losing to both San Francisco and Tennessee, and the Chiefs beating Miami)
As strange as it sounds, the Vikings haven't clinched the 1 seed yet. If Minnesota loses to Green Bay and Chicago (I know, I know) and San Francisco wins out, San Fran will be the 1 seed due to a better divisional record. If the Vikings win a game, or the 49ers lose a game, the Vikings will be the 1 seed.
Can we agree that won't happen? Ok, awesome. The San Francisco 49ers have clinched the 2 seed.
The 3 seed at this point could fall to any one of 4 teams. I'll rank them in order of likelihood, and explain why.
1. The 9-5 Philadelphia Eagles have a one-game lead over all competitiors and have the inside track. They control their own destiny and have an easy schedule ahead. If they beat the Raiders and Cowboys, they will clinch the 3 seed.
2. The 7-6 Atlanta Falcons need to rattle off a streak of 3 divisional wins against the Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers. Luckily, they won't be clear underdogs in any of those games, and if they win out and the Eagles lose either of their games the Falcons will obtain the 3 seed due to a 5-1 divisional record.
3. If the 8-6 Washington Redskins win out against the Broncos and Giants, the Falcons lose a game and the Eagles lose to Dallas, Washington will obtain the 3 seed due to a superior divisional record against Philly and conference record against Atlanta. They need an upset win and some help, but they have a semi-realistic path.
4. The 7-7 New Orleans Saints kinda boned themselves with their loss to the Jets this week. They need to win out, for the Eagles to lose out, and for the Redskins to lose to the New York Giants. Without any one of those things happening, they won't obtain the 3 seed.
I'm not gonna go into a similar breakdown of the 4 seed, but due to the specific divisional matchups the overwhelming likelihood is that the 4 seed will go to the winner of the NFC South.
Unless the Bears lose out and specifically the Redskins win out (not the Eagles, Falcons, Lions or Saints), the Bears have clinched the 5 seed.
The 6 seed will likely come down to the Lions, Redskins and the 2nd-place NFC South team. If the Redskins can beat Denver and New York they will clinch the 6 seed at least, as they would have a better divisional record than the Lions. If the Redskins lose a game and the Lions win out, the Lions clinch the 6 seed no matter what due to head-to-head over the Falcons and a superior overall record to the Saints. If the Lions and Redskins both lose out and the Saints win out, they will clinch the 6 seed.
PREDICTIONS:
#1. Minnesota Vikings
#2. San Francisco 49ers
#3. Philadelphia Eagles
#4. Cleveland Browns
#5. Chicago Bears
#6. Detroit Lions (I know I know hubris, but look at the situations and schedules again and tell me I don't have the best odds)