Better League Playoff Picture: Scenarios heading into Week 16
by connorrice26 | 7 years ago | 0 Comments
We're heading into a uniquely volatile last 2 weeks of the regular season, as key results could shift the entire playoff picture in both conferences. Here is the complete list of possibilities, broken down by seed.
AFC:
Given that the Bills have two divisional losses (Week 2 @ Miami, Week 3 @ New England) and the Patriots only have 1 (week 9 at Buffalo), if both teams finish with the same record at the end of the season the tiebreaker, and the 1 seed, would go to the Patriots. With that being said, however, at 12-2 the Bills control their own destiny. If the Bills can win out against the Raiders and Bucs they secure the AFC's 1 seed and a first-round bye, while the Patriots would drop down to the 5 seed.
The 2 seed isn't nearly as secure as Daddyleagues makes it look. If the playoffs were today the Broncos would own the 2nd seed at 9-4, but they still have games to play against Dallas and NYG. Meanwhile, the Browns are 8-5 but have only CPU games remaining, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver with a 34-31 win in week 7. Furthermore, the 8-5 Chargers are beneficiaries of both a season sweep of the Broncos and an easy schedule to end the year, and the 7-6 Colts most viable road to the 2 seed is Broncos losses to the Giants and Cowboys, a Browns CPU loss and a Chargers loss against Oakland tomorrow. The Browns own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Broncos and the Chargers, and given each team's respective schedules are the slight favorite at this point in the year to earn the 2 seed.
The 3-4 seed has the same dynamics.
The 5 seed will go to whoever loses the AFC East race between the Bills and Patriots. Buffalo-Tampa Bay in week 17 has major playoff ramifications for both teams.
There's a 3-team race for the 6 seed between Oakland, Miami and San Diego, although Denver could also drop all the way down to 6 if the Chargers win out. This race will likely come down to both the result of the week 15 Oakland-San Diego game, as currently both of those teams own tiebreakers over the Dolphins, and the Broncos' staying power against New York and Dallas.
MY PREDICTED STANDINGS:
1. New England
2. Cleveland
3. San Diego
4. Indianapolis
5. Buffalo
6. Denver
NFC:
If the Cardinals win a game, they are the 1 seed. If Dallas wins out and Arizona loses out, Dallas gains the 1 seed.
5 teams have a viable shot at the 2 seed. If Dallas wins out, they secure the 2 seed. If the Bucs win out and the Cowboys lose a game, the Bucs would own a better divisional record and would therefore secure the 2 seed. If the Packers win out, Dallas drops both of their remaining games and the Bucs lose a game, the Packers would secure the 2 seed. If the Bears win out, the Packers lose to the Lions, Dallas drops a game and the Lions lose to the Seahawks, the Bears would be the 2 seed. If Detroit wins out, the Packers lose to the Steelers, the Bears lose to the Seahawks, the Cowboys lose to the Broncos and Cardinals and the Bucs lose to the Bills and Dolphins, the Lions would be the 2 seed.
Same deal with the 3 and 4 seeds, it's anyone's game at this point.
The wild card race is where things get really interesting. The Bears are in the drivers seat, and only have to beat the Seahawks and CPU Vikings to secure, at the very least, a 5 seed. If the Lions beat the Packers AND the Bears beat the Seahawks the Lions would secure a playoff birth; otherwise, the week 17 game between Seattle and Detroit would determine who gets the 6 seed. The Giants are also in the mix, and if they win out, the Seahawks lose to the Bears and the Lions lose to the Packers they could earn the 6 seed depending on the points for-points against differential between Detroit and NYG. The 49ers would require a very specific series of events: They win out, the Bears beat the Seahawks, the Packers beat the Lions, the Seahawks beat the Lions, and the 49ers average margin of victory is at least 17.5 PPG more than the Seahawks over that stretch. If one of those things doesn't happen, the 49ers drop out of playoff contention.
MY PREDICTED STANDINGS:
1. Arizona
2. Tampa Bay
3. Dallas
4. Green Bay
5. Chicago
6. Detroit
KEY REMAINING GAMES:
Week 15: San Diego-Oakland
Week 16: Chicago-Seattle, Tampa Bay-Miami, Arizona-San Francisco, Dallas-Denver, Detroit-Green Bay, Oakland-Buffalo
Week 17: Buffalo-Tampa Bay, Arizona-Dallas, Indianapolis-San Francisco, NYG-Denver, Seattle-Detroit